Why Newbee Could Win T17

by Mark Ryan
on July 17, 2017

This Chinese dream team was founded in 2014 by Dota legend Xiao8 and sponsored by a billionaire. Winners of TI4, this organization has been a tier 1 team since its inception. Since their victory at TI4, the team has struggled to maintain the same level of success and with their loss at TI6, the team retooled with their current roster.

Moogy, Sccc, kpii, Kaka, and Faith make up the current squad that will compete at TI7. A veteran organization with fresh talent, Newbee look to become the first team to win 2 Tis. Will Newbee break the TI cycle and be the first Chinese team to win during an odd number year?

Bet365 Odds For Newbee To Win TI7 Are +1000

1 of 6 invited teams to TI7, Newbee is the 5th most likely team to win it all. This is a roster with 2 of the top 10 MMR in the China region, Sccc, and Moogy. Rounding out the rest of the team are 2 other 8k mmr in Kaka and kpii. Faith is their captain with only 6k mmr but he probably doesn’t care as much considering he’s the veteran of the team who won TI2.

Following the Newbee tradition of being a dream team, this squad is the 4th iteration of the team and they are the dream team of the next generation of Chinese Dota 2 players. Sccc is 21, Kaka is 24, Moogy is 23, and Kpii’s age is unknown. Faith is only 25 years old but has won TI2 with Invictus Gaming and has joined Newbee in 2016 bringing his wisdom and experience with him.

Even though they have achieved more success than tier 2 teams such as Team NP, TnC and others, if Newbee lost to other teams in TI7, it wouldn’t be the biggest upset. If TnC beat Evil Geniuses that would be a huge upset. If TnC beat Newbee it would be an upset but many observers could see it happening. At the same time, if Newbee beat Evil Geniuses and OG on their way to the TI7 grand finals, people wouldn’t be so surprised either. That is the enigma of this Newbee team. They are a top 5 squad but who knows what level they will perform at.

Newbee is Comfortable With The Meta

The top 3 most picked heroes in the TI7 qualifiers were Sand King, Queen of Pain, and Puck. In Newbee’s last 20 games at least 1 of those heroes was picked during their draft. One might make the assumption that Newbee is in an ideal meta since their favorite heroes are all popular right now.

Sccc’s Queen of Pain is arguably the best in the game right now. When there is no hope, when all the walls are closing in, when you are out drafted, just pick Queen of Pain for Sccc and suddenly the light shines upon Newbee. Sccc does extremely well as Queen of Pain and with the current meta favoring Queen of Pain, there is at least 1 star aligning for Newbee to win TI7.

Two Leaders Are Better Than One?

Kaka has been on Newbee for 6 months longer than Faith and was part of the TI6 squad. Faith joined only after the TI6 team reshuffle and became captain. Before that Kaka was captain on a team with legends like Chuan, Mu, and Hao. Even with his desire to be captain, Kaka realized that Faith would be a better captain than he would be.

By having two great Dota minds on the same team with one leader, Newbee can only benefit. Kaka would like to be captain but he cannot compete with Faith in terms of experience and accomplishments. Faith has won TI2 while Kaka has not accomplished anything as prized. Their positions are interchangeable with both playing the 4 and 5 position. This leads to more flexibility to change things up when required.

The dynamite support duo of Kaka and Faith are smart, wise players. This is what you want in a support. Someone who will not be out of position and getting ganked, making timely rotations, having good map awareness and good ward placement. Having experienced support players make the game easier.

Record Versus Other Top Teams

Since patch 7.0, Newbee has the record against the following teams:

  • VS OG, 4 wins 3 losses.
  • VS Evil Geniuses, 6 wins 8 losses.
  • VS Virtus Pro, 2 wins 1 loss.
  • VS Invictus Gaming, 5 wins 10 losses.
  • VS Team Liquid, 2 wins 3 losses.

Against the 5 other invited teams to TI7, Newbee has a winning record against only 2 teams. One of those teams is perhaps the best out of all the teams, OG. It seems as if an ideal scenario is for Newbee to play OG in the winner’s bracket, beat them and make it to the grand finals and then play OG again after they beat the other teams in the losers bracket. Of course, this isn’t something that can be relied upon.

3rd Core

Kpii is not your ordinary off lane. Similar to S4 on OG, Kpii was a carry player that transitioned to off lane to form a super team. Having a core player mentality as an off lane has its benefits and negatives. The benefit is that the greedy off lane has the ability to farm very well and become more impactful with items as the game progresses. The downside is that greediness can lead to disadvantages early on which can be insurmountable. If your off lane is farming while your team is dying, that is rarely ever a good trade off.

  • Kpii’s gold per minute (gpm) on Newbee is 392.81.
  • Universe on Evil Geniuses GPM is 381.09.
  • S4 on OG GPM is 371.42.
  • XXS on Invictus Gaming GPM is 392.20.
  • 9pasha on Virtus Pro GPM is 368.05.
  • Mind Control on Team Liquid GPM is 396.15.

So Kpii ranks 2nd in GPM as off lane compared to the 5 other invited teams. Mind Control barely wins and everyone is separated by a trivial amount of gold per minute. It is unclear as to how much of an advantage a farmed off lane brings to a team. But having more gold to buy more items is never a bad situation.

New Opportunity

Faith is already a world champion winning TI2 with Invictus Gaming. Kpii has played in 2 TIs and Kaka has played in 1. Both their carry and mid lane are playing in their first ever TI and so that pressure can either improve or decrease their performance. For Newbee to win TI7, the pressure has to dramatically improve everyone’s performance while decreasing the performance of their enemies for the team to win it all.

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