Which QB Will Lead the NFL in TD Passes or Passer Rating?
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league and it should come as no surprise that NFL betting sites have numerous prop bets involving the sport’s most glamorous position. In this blog, we’re going to huddle up and take a look at two major statistical categories that often measure the success of a QB each season: TD passes and passer rating.
Keep in mind, these NFL prop bets are only for the regular season. It’s pretty obvious to anyone placing NFL bets as to what a touchdown pass is. However, some NFL bettors and fans have no idea what a passer rating is or how it’s even calculated.
The passer rating is calculated based on a QB’s passing attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdown passes, and interceptions. This rating is based on a scale from 0 to 158.3 and has been officially used by the NFL since 1973.
As the play clock is winding down, let’s break the huddle and take a look at these exciting NFL quarterback prop bets courtesy of BetOnline.
Who Will Lead the NFL in TD Passes for 2019?
The 2018 season was Patrick Mahomes’ coming out party as he won the NFL MVP award due to his excellent play all year long. Most notably, he led the league in touchdown passes with 50 which was 11 more than the next quarterback.
Mahomes tied Tom Brady for the second most touchdowns thrown in a season as they both are five behind Peyton Manning’s record of 55 touchdown passes. Currently, Mahomes is the odds on favorite to lead the NFL in TD throws again. Can anyone dethrone the reigning MVP?
- Patrick Mahomes (+250)
- Aaron Rodgers (+600)
- Matt Ryan (+600)
- Baker Mayfield (+1200)
- Drew Brees (+1200)
- Carson Wentz (+1400)
- Ben Roethlisberger (+1600)
- Deshaun Watson (+1600)
- Tom Brady (+1600)
- Jared Goff (+1800)
After reviewing all of the QB options available for this prop bet, I have chosen the following six quarterbacks that I believe have the best chance at leading the NFL in TD passes:
|Player||2018 TDs||2018 Rank||TDs High||Career TDs|
Patrick Mahomes (+250)
As mentioned, Mahomes led the NFL last year in TD passes by a wide margin. He averaged a TD on 8.6% of his pass attempts. I see no reason why Mahomes can’t have another monster year in 2019. He will be leading the most explosive offense and he has plenty of weapons to choose from.
KC’s leading receiver Tyreek Hill wasn’t suspended this year due to off-field issues, which means the Chiefs will be operating at full capacity. Watkins and Kelce are also back to balance out the passing attack. All three running backs can rush and catch out of the backfield.
This offense was near the top in just about every major statistical category for the 2018 season. They might be even better this year.
Aaron Rodgers (+600)
Other than in 2009 and 2017, when Rodgers was injured and played half a season each year, the 2018 season was one of the worst years for Green Bay’s field general and franchise player. Rodgers had a career low number of TD passes in a non-injury season and the worst TD% for his career.
Rodgers had new receivers and an inconsistent offensive line to work with. There also wasn’t a rushing attack to balance out the offense. He had the second most pass attempts of his career last season with 597.
This season, Rodgers has a new head coach and offensive system. The Packers beefed up the o-line and made sure that their young receivers were up to the task of becoming playmakers for this offense. I expect Rodgers to have a bounce back season. But will he be able to outperform Mahomes?
Matt Ryan (+600)
Of all the QBs on this list, I believe Matt Ryan could have the most success in building off his numbers from last year. This Falcons offense is going to be explosive with Jones and Ridley at receiver. Freeman is healthy at RB and the o-line has been solidified.
Last year, Ryan had 35 touchdown throws which was the third most in the NFL, yet many pundits and fans felt that Atlanta had a down year. The most TDs Ryan has ever thrown in a season was 2016 when he had 38. I believe he can eclipse 40 TDs this year and put some pressure on Mahomes.
Drew Brees (+1200)
Drew Brees will go down as an all-time great QB and rightfully so. He’s been incredible ever since joining the Saints in 2006. His 18-year career has been marvelous and he’s shown no real signs of slowing down. In fact, Brees had his most efficient season last year when he led the league in passer rating.
As for passing touchdowns, Brees’ 32 touchdown throws ranked him eighth overall last year. However, he has 520 TD throws for his career, which is only 19 behind Peyton Manning’s NFL record of 539 career touchdown passes.
I believe the Saints offense is going to be more explosive this year. Alvin Kamara will be the main running back and he’s deadly out of the backfield. They added Cook at tight end and the receivers have all matured a year. New Orleans also has a solid offensive line.
Brees doesn’t have much time left, as he’s 40 years old and in the twilight of his career. With that said, this could be his last chance to compete for a Super Bowl and an NFL MVP.
Deshaun Watson (+1600)
It appears that the Houston Texans are snake-bitten with injuries each season. Watson’s rookie year saw him suffer a knee injury, which limited him to just seven games. Then in 2018, he had multiple receivers miss chunks of the season. Now, starting RB Miller will be out for the year with a torn ACL.
With that said, if Watson and his top passing weapons like Hopkins and Fuller can all remain healthy, then this will be a fun offense to watch. Hopkins is one of the best receivers in the league and Fuller is one of the best deep threats in the NFL. They also have decent production from the TE spot as well.
Ultimately, with starting running back Miller out for the year, the Texans will most likely end up throwing the ball more which means that Deshaun Watson will have a monster season. I expect Watson to break 4,500 passing yards and at least 35 TD passes in 2019. Will it be enough to lead the NFL?
— #ClemsonNFL (@ClemsonPros) August 24, 2019
Jared Goff (+1800)
Other than the Chiefs, the Los Angeles Rams had the most explosive offense in the NFL. Who can forget their epic Monday Night Football game where the Rams won by a score of 54 to 51? The Chiefs kept up the output all year, but the Rams dipped some late in the season.
A big reason for that dip was that they lost a key passing weapon in Cooper Kupp. The WR is back after a knee injury and the passing game will be scary again. It might have to do even more work in 2019 since their star running back Todd Gurley has health concerns over his knee.
With that said, Goff had his best year in 2018 after throwing 32 TDs. I expect that number to climb in 2019 as the NFL continues to morph into a passing league and the Rams’ rushing attack isn’t as dominant as it has been the last two seasons.
Who Leads the NFL in TD Passes?
After narrowing down the field to the six QBs above, there really is only one legit option, Patrick Mahomes. This Chiefs offense will be even more explosive than before. I’m not sure if Mahomes can reach the 50 TD mark again, but he will surpass 40 TDs.
I do see the competition for this prop bet being closer than last year when Andrew Luck finished 11 behind Mahomes. Both Matt Ryan and Deshaun Watson could put pressure on Mahomes in this statistical race to the top.
With that said, I’m surprised that Mahomes has a line of +250 after the incredible numbers he put up last year. There’s no signs of this offense slowing down at all. In fact, they will be even better with all of the new weapons drafted this year.
Take Mahomes and the great value with his +250 odds.
Which QB Will Have the Highest Passer Rating This Season?
As mentioned above, TD passes are just one aspect of the formula to determine a QB’s passer rating. With that said, I have chosen five quarterbacks who will contend for this prop bet based on the available betting options:
- Drew Brees (+250)
- Patrick Mahomes (+300)
- Aaron Rodgers (+400)
- Matt Ryan (+450)
- Russell Wilson (+600)
- Deshaun Watson (+1200)
- Phillip Rivers (+1200)
- Carson Wentz (+1600)
- Jared Goff (+1600)
- Kirk Cousins (+2000)
- Tom Brady (+2000)
|Player||2018 PR||2018 Rank||PR High||Career PR|
Drew Brees (+250)
Brees led the NFL in passer rating for the 2018 season as it was one of the most efficient seasons of his stellar career. It marked the second time that Brees led the league in passer rating as he also did it in 2009. Drew has finished in the Top 5 of this category seven times out of 18 seasons.
Brees’ career mark of 97.7 is the third best passer rating of all-time. He’s just a tick above Tom Brady while coming in behind both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. With Alvin Kamara as the main weapon in the backfield, I expect more dump offs from Brees to Kamara.
The addition of Cook as the tight end will help this offense greatly as it gives Brees a reliable weapon over the middle. Add the fact that the receivers have improved from a year ago, and it’s easy to see why Brees is the odds on favorite to win this prop bet and statistical category once again.
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) August 30, 2019
Patrick Mahomes (+300)
Mahomes led the NFL in touchdown passes, passing yards, yards per game, and QBR as he was named the NFL MVP. However, he finished second to Drew Brees in the passer rating category. This year, Mahomes is looking to take that crown from Brees as well.
The biggest reason Mahomes failed to lead the league in passer rating last year was due to his completion percentage. Of the Top 10 QBs for this statistical category, Mahomes had the third lowest completion percentage at 66%. Wilson finished with 65.6% and Goff had a 64.9%.
In the prop bet above, I said that Mahomes would lead the NFL in passing touchdowns. I also think he’s a threat to lead in passing yards and passer rating. If he can improve his completion percentage, then Mahomes will win this.
Aaron Rodgers (+400)
As stated above, Rodgers is coming off one of the worst statistical seasons of his career. With that said, I do believe this will be a bounce back year for the former NFL MVP. When it comes to passer rating, Rodgers is one of the best ever. In fact, his 103.1 career rating is #1 of all-time.
Furthermore, Rodgers has led the NFL in passer rating twice with the last time coming in 2012. He’s also finished in the Top 5 of this category on seven different occasions. I expect Rodgers to have more chemistry with his young receivers, an improved offensive line and a better running game this year.
Rodgers will make the biggest leap from 2018 to 2019 in passer rating and you have to believe he’s a contender to lead this category this season.
Matt Ryan (+450)
Because of what Mahomes and Brees did last year, Matt Ryan was overlooked. However, the Falcons’ franchise QB had a solid 2018 season as he was fourth in passer rating at 108.1. He was also fourth in completion percentage (69.4%), fourth in TD passes (35), and third in passing yards (4,924 yards).
For his career, Ryan has led the NFL one time in passer rating and that was in 2016 when he won the NFL MVP. Including last year, Ryan has finished in the Top 5 for this category on three occasions.
Coming into this season, the Falcons have improved their offensive line, got healthy at the running back position, added some pieces to the defense and aim to contend with Drew Brees and the Saints in the NFC South.
I believe we will see Matt Ryan have another strong season, but this time he will get more recognition as the Falcons will contend for a playoff spot and the division crown. Winning teams tend to gain more attention and that’s what was lacking for Ryan last year.
Let’s also keep in mind that he may just have the best wide receiver duo with Calvin Ridley and my favorite WR in the NFL Julio Jones. Could Ryan break 5,000 passing yards and 40 TDs in 2019? If so, then he will definitely take home the passer rating title and possibly win his second NFL MVP award.
Russell Wilson (+600)
Like everyone else on this list, other than Mahomes, Russell Wilson has led the NFL in passer rating at least one time. He accomplished this feat in 2015. Last year, Wilson finished third overall with a 110.9 rating. For his career, Wilson is second all-time behind Aaron Rodgers with a 100.3 passer rating.
Of all the quarterbacks on this list, Wilson plays on a team with a run first offense. They led the NFL last year in rushing and the Seahawks are expected to be near the top of the league again in team rushing yards. So, he doesn’t get to put up as many staggering numbers like others.
However, Wilson will be playing this year with a much better offensive line and that will make a huge difference. Last year, the o-line was terrible in pass protection which led to Wilson running for his life at times. He had his most rushing yards in a season last year with 355 yards on the ground.
The Seahawks have added some young weapons at the wide receiver position, which will help the passing attack out. Wilson will also benefit from one of the most dangerous play action passing games in the entire league. I expect Wilson to be in the Top 5 and compete for this title once again.
Who Will Have the Highest Passer Rating?
This one is a lot tougher than the prop bet for TD passes. There are several players that can win this category. However, only three QBs have ever led the NFL in passer rating in consecutive seasons. The last QB to do this was Aaron Rodgers. Steve Young is the only quarterback to accomplish this multiple times and even led the NFL in passer rating for three straight years:
- Aaron Rodgers (2011-12)
- Steve Young (1996-98, 1993-94, 1991-92)
- Ken Anderson (1981-82, 1974-75)
I believe Brees is going to take a slight step back, which should open the door for Mahomes, Rodgers, and Ryan. I believe those three QBs are legitimate contenders for this crown. With that in mind, I’m leaning towards Mahomes to win this. I believe he will have another monster year.
Final Thoughts on these NFL QB Prop Bets
Did you watch Patrick Mahomes last year? He had an incredible season that put most other QBs to shame. He led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship game where they lost to the Patriots. Instead of resting on their laurels, the Kansas City Chiefs went out and added more weapons for their QB.
The running game will improve and the team has more speed now than they have ever had in the passing game. This is going to be the most explosive and enjoyable offense in the NFL and I expect Mahomes to benefit greatly from it.
The Chiefs also improved their defense with offseason moves, which should provide the offense with better field position. However, this team is built on Mahomes’ arm and how far he can take them. As a Super Bowl contender, I expect the Chiefs and Mahomes to have a fantastic 2019 season.