The 2020 NFL Draft was an exciting event for football fans and the sports world in general. However, not all players and teams are feeling the jubilance that the league, its networks and advertisers were expressing.
In particular, there are two teams that seemed to have put their franchises and fanbases in compromising positions following the historic virtual draft.
In Green Bay, the Packers drafted a quarterback in the 1st round despite having one of the best QBs in the league with Aaron Rodgers. In Philadelphia, the Eagles took a dual threat QB in the 2nd round despite having a young, franchise player in Carson Wentz.
With the post-draft turbulence increasing in both cities, sites that bet the NFL have released odds on whether or not Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz will get traded before the start of the 2020 NFL season.
Let’s huddle up and take a look at these prop bets, examine the possibilities, and see if we can identify any value in our predictions.
*2005 PACKERS* Brett Favre • Age: 35 • Pro Bowls: 8 • NFL Seasons: 14 Aaron Rodgers • Age: 21 • Home State: CA • Div. I FBS offers: 0
*2020 PACKERS* Aaron Rodgers • Age: 36 • Pro Bowls: 8 • NFL Seasons: 15 Jordan Love • Age: 21 • Home State: CA • Div. I FBS offers: 1 pic.twitter.com/73F14GvGo9
Will Aaron Rodgers Get Traded Before 2020 NFL Season?
There were several surprising picks in the 1st round of the 2020 NFL Draft like the Giants taking the wrong offensive lineman with the 4th pick and the Raiders taking the 3rd best receiver with the 12th pick. But, no opening round pick was more surprising than the Packers taking Jordan Love 26th overall.
What made the selection of Love even more shocking was the fact that Green Bay gave up a 4th round draft pick to move up four spots and take the former Utah State quarterback.
Longtime Packers fans are feeling a sickness in their stomachs as they’ve seen this before. In 2005, when Brett Favre was one of the best QBs in the league, Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers late in the first round after the collegiate quarterback slid down the draft.
However, Love isn’t a “can’t miss” prospect like Rodgers was. In fact, Love is more of a project who will need a season or two to sit behind Rodgers like Aaron sat behind Brett Favre for three seasons.
“Aaron and I have a great relationship, and we talked about it. Obviously, he’s a little disappointed. To me, the word ‘disrespect’ I think is perfect. That’s the message that it sends to Aaron. Isn’t it about winning now? That pick says, ‘No.’”
Favre would also go on to say that he believes Rodgers will finish his career with another team just like he did.
Aaron Rodgers’ Career Plans Prior to the 2020 NFL Draft
In 2018, Rodgers signed a four year contract extension with the Packers that was worth $133 million dollars and would keep him with the team through 2023.
For the quarterback himself, Rodgers recognized that he would be 40 years old at the time of the contract’s end. However Rodgers believed that he could still play at a high level beyond that point. The future HOF quarterback commented on his future about one month prior to the NFL Draft:
“The only way to do that is to keep playing at a high level and give them no choice but to keep bringing you back because you’re the best option and give them the best chance to win. That’s my goal. I’ve got four years left on my deal. I’d like to play four at a really, really high level and if I feel like keep on keeping on from that point, to do it. I feel confident right now. I’m going to be 40 when the deal ends. I feel like I can keep going after that the way things have been going.”
With Tom Brady and Drew Brees playing at high levels beyond the age of 40, there’s no reason to think that Aaron Rodgers couldn’t do the same. However, like Brady, Rodgers will most likely have to do it with another team.
Rodgers Is Still Green Bay’s Leader, but for How Long?
Packers GM Brian Gutekunst has come under fire for drafting Love in the 1st round this year. For a team that went 13-3 and was one game away from the Super Bowl, taking a raw project at quarterback with their first overall draft pick doesn’t help Green Bay get over the hump and into the SB.
In all likelihood, a stud receiver or defender would’ve been the right move to make for the Packers. At 36 years old, Rodgers is still playing at a high enough level where the franchise should be giving him more playmakers and not angling for a replacement.
Despite the selection, Gutekunst says that Rodgers is still the QB of the team and he expects Aaron to be here for a while:
“I know there’s a lot been made about us drafting a quarterback in the first round, and how it affects Aaron, and in my mind it doesn’t really affect him that much. He’s still the quarterback of this team, and he will be for a while, and we’ll hopefully compete for championships.”
How long is “a while”?
That’s the question on everyone’s mind right now. It’s also the question at the heart of this Rodgers prop bet.
Currently, Rodgers would cost the Packers $24 to $29.5 million dollars of cap space in addition to money already given to him in 2020 if the team were to release or cut the quarterback prior to the season. In total, the Packers would be on the hook for roughly $50 million dollars to Rodgers in 2020 if they moved on from him.
If they waited until 2021, the Packers would eat roughly $31.5 million dollars in dead cap. The ideal time to cut ties with Rodgers, should Green Bay do so, would be before the 2022 season when he would only cost aout $17 million dollars in dead cap space.
If Green Bay waits two seasons before moving on from Rodgers, they would give this team a small window to try and win the Super Bowl. Additionally this strategy would allow Jordan Love two years to develop.
The time frame works because Green Bay would still have two more years on Love’s rookie deal with the potential for a 5th year option. Additionally, they would be flusher with salary cap space by cutting ties with Rodgers.
With that said, everything points to Rodgers staying with the Packers for at least this year. I don’t see the face of the franchise demanding a trade. In reality, I see this lighting a fire in Rodgers and he could put up huge numbers in 2020.
For this prop bet, take the “No” option especially before those odds of -850 increase. I would suggest looking into some Rodgers prop bets for regular season performance because I’m expecting him to have a big year.
Will Rodgers Be Traded Before 2020 Season:No (-850)
Will Carson Wentz Get Traded Before 2020 NFL Season?
Unlike Green Bay, Philadelphia spent their first round draft pick on a receiver that can help out the offense and their starting quarterback Carson Wentz, which was met with high approval from fans and pundits alike. However, those good vibrations in the “City of Brotherly Love” didn’t last long.
The Eagles could be looking to run a two-QB offense with both Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts on the field, per @CharlesRobinson
In the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Eagles took quarterback Jalen Hurts with the 51st pick overall. It was a selection that sent shockwaves throughout Philly and its rabid fanbase.
What’s so surprising about selecting a QB in the second round is the timing of it all. Just last year, Wentz signed a four year, $128 million dollar extension with the Eagles. $107.9 million dollars are guaranteed with $66.5 million guaranteed upon signing.
Additionally, Wentz is entering the prime of his career at just 27 years old, whereas Rodgers is at the tail end of his peak playing days. So, it’s even more shocking to fans that the Eagles would take a QB in the first two rounds of the draft.
Since the selection, the Eagles’ brain trust have publicly commented on the reasons why they took Hurts. Let’s take a look at some of these reasons and see if they play a role in our NFL bet.
Philly Prides Itself on Having a Reliable Backup
We don’t have to look too far back in Philly’s history to see how much they pride themselves of having a reliable backup quarterback. Just look at Nick Foles’ time with the Eagles and see how he led the team to a Super Bowl victory and another Playoff appearance as the #2 quarterback behind Wentz.
Heading into the 2020 NFL Draft, Nate Sudfeld was Philly’s backup quarterback to Wentz. Who would you rather have: Sudfeld or Hurts?
I think the answer to that question is pretty obvious as Hurts has a higher ceiling, more upside, and is more athletic than Sudfeld. Additionally, Sudfeld is only signed through the 2020 season whereas Hurts will be with the team for four years at a cost of just $6 million dollars for the entire duration.
The Eagles have a potentially explosive backup quarterback in Hurts for the next four years and could either groom him to start over Wentz in a few seasons or trade him for a high draft pick like they’ve done in the past with A.J. Feeley and Kevin Kolb. Both QBs netted the Eagles a 2nd round pick.
Wentz’ Injury History
If the Eagles were serious about getting a QB heading into the draft then it makes sense to go for a player that could end up starting if Wentz gets hurt this season.
Wentz’s injury history is a big concern for the franchise. He tore his ACL in late 2017 and suffered a serious back injury in 2018. Both of these injuries kept Wentz from finishing each season. Additionally, over the last few years, he’s only been able to play in one quarter of a Playoff game.
To further this point, Wentz was knocked out of the Wild Card game last season after a “dirty hit” by Seattle’s Jadeveon Clowney. That’s three straight seasons of being hurt and missing games. There’s definitely a reason for Philly to be concerned and wanting security at this position.
Philadelphia Let Wentz Know They Were Taking a QB
Unlike with the Packers, Philadelphia let Wentz know ahead of time that they were taking a quarterback in the draft. Head Coach Doug Pederson summarized his conversation with Wentz prior to picking Jalen Hurts:
“I wanted him to know, that he’s our starter, he’s the face of the Philadelphia Eagles, he’s the franchise. He is the guy that’s going to take us back, hopefully, one day, back to the Super Bowl, and get back to that championship level. So I wanted him to understand that first. But we also understand, and wanted him to understand, that we’re going to continue to evaluate quarterbacks, and continue to draft quarterbacks every year.”
Green Bay should take notes on how Philadelphia handled this situation. They made it clear to Wentz ahead of time and reassured his standing with the team. This is how a professional organization should handle these sensitive things.
The Packers didn’t do this. Instead, they’re still playing clean-up from the chaos they caused.
Could the Eagles Afford to Trade Wentz This Year?
Let’s circle back to the Carson Wentz prop bet and look at what the financial ramifications would be for a trade of the franchise’s quarterback.
In 2020, Wentz has an $18.6 million dollar cap hit with a total payout of just below $40 million. However, if they trade him before June 1st then they will have about $51 million in dead cap space, if they trade him after June 1st then they will have roughly $50 million in dead cap over the next two seasons.
If the Eagles wait to trade Wentz until next summer then they would still end up eating roughly $33 million in dead cap space for the season. A post-June 1st 2021, trade would also lead to a $33 million dollar dead cap, but $24 million would come in 2022.
None of these scenarios make financial sense for the Eagles. They’re in a worse position to trade than the Packers are with Rodgers.
With that said, there’s no way Philly trades Wentz before 2021 at the earliest. Waiting until 2022 would be even more financially prudent while also giving Hurts more time to develop.
With Wentz, it’s all about if he can stay healthy or not. If he makes it the entire season without an injury then he will lead this team back to the Playoffs. If he gets hurt then it’s up to Hurts to lead a talented Eagles roster back to the postseason. That’s a lot of pressure for a rookie.
For this NFL bet, it’s an easy “No” on trading Wentz before the 2020 season. Like with the Rodgers prop bet, I would look for regular season props on Wentz instead. Perhaps, look for one that lists odds on whether or not the QB can stay healthy all season long.
Will Wentz Be Traded Before 2020 Season:No (-1200)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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