Opening Odds and Early Value Bets for Huge UFC May 9th Event

By in MMA on
6 Minute Read
UFC249 Gaethje vs Ferguson

Although the UFC was asked to cancel their big April 18th card, that hasn’t stopped UFC President Dana White from going all out to get a fight event scheduled as soon as possible.

In fact, cancelling the UFC 249 PPV seemed to motivate White to try even harder. And, that’s exactly what he’s doing with a proposed May 9th event.

White appears to be putting all of his eggs into this May 9th basket as the proposed card is stacked with three world title fights and numerous big time stars. It’s as if he’s combining three different shows into one. However, as of yet, there’s no word on where this event will take place at.

With that said, sites that offer UFC betting have already released odds on this rumored lineup. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to take a look at the UFC May 9th event odds and identify any potential early betting value.

UFC 249 Betting Odds

The following odds are courtesy of 5Dimes:

  • Tony Ferguson (-165) vs Justin Gaethje (+145)
  • Henry Cejudo (-225) vs Dominick Cruz (+190)
  • Amanda Nunes (-430) vs Felicia Spencer (+330)
  • Francis Ngannou (-275) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+235)
  • Jeremy Stephens (+225) vs Calvin Kattar (-265)
  • Greg Hardy (-190) vs Yorgan de Castro (+165)
  • Donald Cerrone (+120) vs Anthony Pettis (-150)
  • Carla Esparza (-135) vs Michelle Waterson (+115)
  • Fabricio Werdum (-310) vs Alexey Oleynik (+260)
  • Jacare Souza (-150) vs Uriah Hall (+130)
  • Vicente Luque (-250) vs Niko Price (+210)
  • Bryce Mitchell (-195) vs Charles Rosa (+170)

Is There Any Value In the Championship Fights?

  • Tony Ferguson (-165)
  • Justin Gaethje (+145)

The three world title fights are Ferguson vs Gaethje for the interim lightweight title, Nunes(C) vs Spencer for the women’s featherweight title, and Cejudo vs Cruz for the bantamweight title. Of these three bouts, the main event of Ferguson vs Gaethje is the only one that offers any value.

In my opinion, the value is with Tony Ferguson at -165 odds. Some online betting sites even have him as low as -160. When the fight was first announced between Ferguson and Gaethje, Tony was listed as a -210 betting favorite. As you can see, those odds have come down significantly.

And, with that drop in odds, we have value with Ferguson. I believe “El Cucuy” will win this fight. Gaethje has the power to end the contest with one punch, but Ferguson outclasses Gaethje on the mat and is also the more proficient striker.

Other than a lucky punch, I don’t see any scenario where Gaethje wins. With the interim lightweight title around his waist, maybe we will finally get the Ferguson vs Nurmagomedov bout later this year.

Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje Bet:Ferguson (-165)

What Underdogs Are Worth Considering?

Typically, the best value is with the underdogs. And, this event has a few underdogs that you should consider:

Greg Hardy vs Yorgan de Castro

  • Greg Hardy (-190)
  • Yorgan de Castro (+165)

This bout was originally scheduled for UFC Columbus on March 28th. Now, it’s being added to a stacked May 9th card, which could either be named UFC 249 or UFC 250. Right now, we have no idea.

But, what we do know is that this promises to be an explosive contest that will most likely end in a knockout.

Hardy is coming off an impressive unanimous decision loss to Alexander Volkov late last year. He took the fight on short notice and went the full three rounds with a higher ranked fighter and never appeared to be too far out of his depth.

Yorgan de Castro made his UFC debut last October and had a vicious knockout win over Justin Tafa. He earned this opportunity after scoring an impressive KO over Alton Meeks on the Contender Series.

Hardy originally opened as a -190 favorite and Yorgan opened as a +165 underdog. As you can see, the current lines have shifted some. Yet, Yorgan de Castro still offers solid value for a guy who can hang with Hardy’s power and also put Hardy down with one punch.

This will be on the prelims of the UFC card, but it will certainly deliver some fireworks early in the show. I believe Yorgan de Castro is worthy of a flier. He offers value for a man who has the skills to beat Hardy. I see why he’s the underdog, but I also see potential for the upset.

Greg Hardy vs Yorgan de Castro Bet:de Castro (+165)

Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis

  • Donald Cerrone (+120)
  • Anthony Pettis (-150)

As an indicator to just how stacked this May 9th card is, one of the UFC’s most popular fighters in Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone could end up fighting on the prelims of this event. And, he will be going up against another well-known fighter in Anthony Pettis.

In fact, this is a rematch from their fight in 2013 when Pettis won via 1st round KO with a body kick. “Showtime” would go on to win the lightweight title and become a star within the UFC.

Currently, Pettis is 1-3 in his last four fights with two consecutive losses. Pettis fought in January and lost to Diego Ferreira via 2nd round submission and also suffered a unanimous decision defeat to Nate Diaz last August.

Cerrone has lost three straight fights to Ferguson, Gaethje and McGregor. Prior to that, he had won three straight fights.

Between these two guys, I like where Cerrone is at in his career more than Pettis. They’re only four years apart in age, but it seems that Pettis’ skills have fallen off more than Cerrone.

Over the last five years, Pettis has gone 4-8 while Cerrone has gone 9-8 during that span. He takes on anyone at any time regardless of how elite they are.

With that said, I like Cerrone in this contest. I believe he has a solid shot at winning this bout via TKO. Furthermore, his odds of +120 offer value as an underdog fighter who has a strong chance at winning.

Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis Bet:Cerrone (+120)

Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson

  • Carla Esparza (-135)
  • Michelle Waterson (+115)

Carla Esparza comes in as the slight favorite having gone 2-2 in her last four fights. She last stepped in the octagon in September and beat Alexas Grasso via majority decision. Some fans thought Grasso had won. Additionally, she beat Virna Jandiroba last April via unanimous decision.

Over the last two years, Waterson has gone 3-1 with all four of them going to decision. Her last contest was a five round battle against Joanna Jedrzejczyk that ended in a unanimous decision loss.

This is going to be a competitive fight, but I’m leaning toward Waterson in this one. I think she has a better overall game and has done well against top rank opponents the last few years.

As an underdog, Waterson offers value at +115 odds.

Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson Bet:Waterson (+115)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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