Pacquiao vs Matthysse: Betting Preview, Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, July 15th, the great Manny Pacquiao will step back into the ring to challenge Lucas Matthysse for the WBA Welterweight Title after a one-year hiatus. The fight will be live from the Axiata Arena in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, which marks the first time in 43 years that the country will host a major boxing fight. To broadcast this fight during the prime time hours in America, the bout was scheduled for Sunday morning in Malaysia. ESPN+ will air the fight live beginning around 9pm ET.

Another “first” for this fight is that the former 8-division champion Pacquiao will be going into a boxing match without his longtime trainer Freddie Roach for the first time since 2001. Will this have a huge impact on the welterweight championship bout?

Manny Pacquiao Career Record

This fight marks the 69th time that the legendary Filipino fighter Manny Pacquiao steps into the ring. He currently sports a 59-7-2 record and has 38 knockouts in his 59 wins. The following is a quick look at Manny’s illustrious career courtesy of Wikipedia:

Opponent Fight Results Record Fight #
 Jeff Horn Loss UD 59–7–2 68
 Jessie Vargas Win UD 59–6–2 67
 Timothy Bradley Win UD 58–6–2 66
 Floyd Mayweather Jr. Loss UD 57–6–2 65
 Chris Algieri Win UD 57–5–2 64
 Timothy Bradley Win UD 56–5–2 63
 Brandon Ríos Win UD 55–5–2 62
 Juan Manuel Márquez Loss KO 54–5–2 61
 Timothy Bradley Loss SD 54–4–2 60
 Juan Manuel Márquez Win MD 54–3–2 59
 Shane Mosley Win UD 53–3–2 58
 Antonio Margarito Win UD 52–3–2 57
 Joshua Clottey Win UD 51–3–2 56
 Miguel Cotto Win TKO 50–3–2 55
 Ricky Hatton Win KO 49–3–2 54
 Oscar De La Hoya Win RTD 48–3–2 53
 David Díaz Win TKO 47–3–2 52
 Juan Manuel Márquez Win SD 46–3–2 51
 Marco Antonio Barrera Win UD 45–3–2 50
 Jorge Solís Win KO 44–3–2 49
 Érik Morales Win KO 43–3–2 48
 Óscar Larios Win UD 42–3–2 47
 Érik Morales Win TKO 41–3–2 46
 Héctor Velázquez Win TKO 40–3–2 45
 Érik Morales Loss UD 39–3–2 44
 Narongrit Pirang Win TKO 39–2–2 43
 Juan Manuel Márquez Draw SD 38–2–2 42
 Marco Antonio Barrera Win TKO 38–2–1 41
 Emmanuel Lucero Win KO 37–2–1 40
 Serikzhan Yeshmagambetov Win TKO 36–2–1 39
 Fahprakorb Rakkiatgym Win KO 35–2–1 38
 Jorge Eliecer Julio Win TKO 34–2–1 37
 Agapito Sánchez Draw TD 33–2–1 36
 Lehlohonolo Ledwaba Win TKO 33–2 35
 Foijan Prawet Win KO 32–2 34
 Tetsutora Senrima Win TKO 31–2 33
 Nedal Hussein Win TKO 30–2 32
 Seung-Kon Chae Win TKO 29–2 31
 Arnel Barotillo Win KO 28–2 30
 Reynante Jamili Win KO 27–2 29
 Medgoen Singsurat Loss TKO 26–2 28
 Gabriel Mira Win TKO 26–1 27
 Todd Makelim Win TKO 25–1 26
 Chatchai Sasakul Win KO 24–1 25
 Shin Terao Win TKO 23–1 24
 Narong Datchthuyawat Win KO 22–1 23
 Melvin Magramo Win UD 21–1 22
 Chokchai Chockvivat Win KO 20–1 21
 Ariel Austria Win TKO 19–1 20
 Wook-Ki Lee Win KO 18–1 19
 Mike Luna Win KO 17–1 18
 Sung-Yul Lee Win TKO 16–1 17
 Ippo Gala Win TKO 15–1 16
 Bert Batiller Win TKO 14–1 15
 John Medina Win TKO 13–1 14
 Marlon Carillo Win UD 12–1 13
 Rustico Torrecampo Loss KO 11–1 12
 Lito Torrejos Win TD 11–0 11
 Rolando Toyogon Win UD 10–0 10
 Rudolfo Fernandez Win TKO 9–0 9
 Renato Mendones Win TKO 8–0 8
 Lolito Laroa Win UD 7–0 7
 Armando Rocil Win KO 6–0 6
 Acasio Simbajon Win UD 5–0 5
 Dele Decierto Win TKO 4–0 4
 Rocky Palma Win UD 3–0 3
 Pinoy Montejo Win UD 2–0 2
 Edmund Enting Ignacio Win UD 1–0 1

Lucas Matthysse Career Record

This fight marks the 45th time that Matthysse steps into the ring. He has a career record of 39-4-1 with staggering 36 knockouts. The following is a quick look at Lucas Matthysse’s fight career:

Opponent Fight Result Record Fight #
Tewa Kiram Win KO 39–4 (1 NC) 44
Emmanuel Taylor Win TKO 38–4 (1 NC) 43
Viktor Postol Loss KO 37–4 (1 NC) 42
 Ruslan Provodnikov Win MD 37–3 (1 NC) 41
 Roberto Ortiz Win KO 36–3 (1 NC) 40
 John Molina Jr. Win KO 35–3 (1 NC) 39
 Danny García Loss UD 34–3 (1 NC) 38
 Lamont Peterson Win TKO 34–2 (1 NC) 37
 Mike Dallas Jr. Win KO 33–2 (1 NC) 36
 Ajose Olusegun Win TKO 32–2 (1 NC) 35
 Humberto Soto Win RTD 31–2 (1 NC) 34
 Martín Ángel Martínez Win TKO 30–2 (1 NC) 33
 Sergio Omar Priotti Win KO 29–2 (1 NC) 32
 Devon Alexander Loss SD 28–2 (1 NC) 31
 DeMarcus Corley Win TKO 28–1 (1 NC) 30
 Zab Judah Loss SD 27–1 (1 NC) 29
 Rogelio Castañeda Jr. Win KO 27–0 (1 NC) 28
 Vivian Harris Win TKO 26–0 (1 NC) 27
 Florencio Castellano Win KO 25–0 (1 NC) 26
 Luis Ernesto José Win KO 24–0 (1 NC) 25
 Carlos Adán Jerez Win UD 23–0 (1 NC) 24
 Rogelio Castañeda Jr. NC NC 22–0 (1 NC) 23
 Gilbert Quiros Win TKO 22–0 22
 Jorge Medrano Win RTD 21–0 21
 Esteban de Jesus Morales Win KO 20–0 20
 Ariel Francisco Burgos Win KO 19–0 19
 Ramon Duran Win KO 18–0 18
 Alejandro Ciacia Win KO 17–0 17
 Diego Jesús Ponce Win KO 16–0 16
 Justo Evangelista Martínez Win KO 15–0 15
 Ceferino Zampatti Win KO 14–0 14
 Hernan Abraham Valenzuela Win TKO 13–0 13
 Victor Daniel Rios Win KO 12–0 12
 Hernan Abraham Valenzuela Win RTD 11–0 11
 Vicente Luis Burgo Win KO 10–0 10
 Jorge Alberto Carballo Win TKO 9–0 9
 Marcelo Omar Lazarte Win RTD 8–0 8
 Jesus Ceferino Vergara Win RTD 7–0 7
 Nestor Fabian Sanchez Win TKO 6–0 6
 Hugo Antonio Aquino Win KO 5–0 5
 Adan Basilio Mironchik Win KO 4–0 4
 Bernardino Gonzalez Win DQ 3–0 3
 Luis Roberto Aguilar Win TKO 2–0 2
 Leandro Almagro Win TKO 1–0 1

Pacquiao vs Matthysse Betting Odds

The following is a list of current betting odds courtesy of

  • Manny Pacquiao -185
  • Lucas Matthysse +160

Pacquiao will go down in the history books as the better fighter of the two, but neither one of these guys is lighting up the sport of boxing right now.

The 35-year old Matthysse is on a two fight winning streak, has won 4 out of 5, and 8 out of his last 10 bouts. Lucas looked utterly broken in his fight against Viktor Postol roughly 3 years ago. By all accounts, many pundits wrote off Matthysse as being anything other than a finished fighter. From there, he would go on to win his next two fights and the vacant WBA welterweight title. Even with those accomplishments, Matthysse is not the same fighter he was over 5 years ago when he was a top contender in his division. There was a time when just the name of Lucas Matthysse would signal to boxing fans that they were going to be in for an exciting fight. Nowadays, not so much.

Manny Pacquiao lost his last fight in highly controversial fashion. Pacquiao has gone 3-2 in his last 5 fights and 6-4 in his last 10 fights. Many fans and pundits have been calling for Pacquiao to retire, but the Senator keeps on fighting. However, it’s obvious that Manny is no longer the elite fighter he used to be. In December, Manny turns 40 years old and may or may not keep fighting. It’s clear that he loves the sport of boxing, but at what point does he begin to damage his legacy?

As mentioned above, Pacquiao is going into this fight without Freddie Roach. His longtime friend and assistant trainer Buboy Fernandez will be the corner general for this fight. Fernandez is publicly declaring that Pacquiao will be a different monster for this bout. As of now, we’re not sure what “monster” he will be: the fighter that knocks out his opponents or the fighter that tries to win on points?

Prop Bets for Pacquiao vs Matthysse

With a big fight like this, we have plenty of betting options in addition to the moneylines. The following is a list of prop bets courtesy of

Going the distance: Yes (-245) and No (+175)

I believe this fight has a decent chance of going the distance. Pacquiao isn’t the knockout artist he used to be. Twelve out of Manny’s last thirteen fights have all gone the distance including the last seven straight. For his career, Pacquiao has 21 decisions. Roughly 30% of his fights have ended in a decision victory for him. And he also has another 4 decision losses on his resume.

Matthysse has 36 knockouts in 39 victories. He’s only been ko’d once in his career, but that makes 37 out of his 44 career fights ending in a KO or TKO. He doesn’t try to fight for a decision. Matthysse is willing to mix it up and go for the finish. However, Manny might be better off using his experience to outbox Matthysse and push for a decision rather than risk mixing it up and taking a massive shot.

I believe this fight will go the distance. Bet the Yes on this one at -245.

Fight ends in a draw: Yes (+1800) and No (-2800)

Although the odds of this fight ending in a Draw are close to zero, there’s no betting value in betting on the No. My best advice is to just avoid this prop bet.

Wins inside the distance: Matthysse (+335) and Pacquiao (+485)

As mentioned above, I believe this fight has a better chance of going the distance than finishing inside of the 12 rounds. But, I do like the value here, especially with Pacquiao. Matthysse probably has the power advantage at this point in their respective careers, but Manny is a great counter puncher and can overwhelm his opponents with a large volume of punches. I don’t see Matthysse backing down, so there is a chance that one of the two fighters can catch a knockout shot. Go with Manny at +485.

Matthysse Wins via 12 round decision (+415)

If this fight goes the distance, I don’t see Matthysse taking a decision unless this is the same group of judges from the Jeff Horn fight. More than likely, if Lucas were to win, it would be due to a KO or TKO.

Pacquiao wins via 12 round decision (-110)

This prop bet is the most likely outcome for the fight. As mentioned above, 12 out of Manny’s last 13 fights have gone to a decision. For his career, Manny has won 21 fights via decision and I believe that this will be number 22.

Final Words on the Big Fight

There used to be a time when a Pacquiao fight was a must see event. Unfortunately, those days are over with. For those that hope to see a good fight between two fighters on the decline then I believe you will enjoy this action. Pacquiao and Matthysse match up well together. Lucas wants to finish the fight, so that will put him in a position for Pacquiao to hit. Manny won’t have to chase after Matthysse as he will be looking for Manny. Unless Matthysse can rock Pacquiao with a big shot, I believe that Manny will win this fight most likely by a 12 round Unanimous Decision.

Pacquiao vs Matthysse Betting Recap

  • Winner: Manny Pacquiao (-185)
  • Length of Fight: Goes the full 12 rounds (-245)
  • Fight Result: Manny Pacquiao wins via Decision (-110)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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