On Sunday, June 28th, the New England Patriots signed Cam Newton to a one year contract. The news of this signing immediately prompted responses from NFL players and fans across all major social media platforms.
Newton was released from the Carolina Panthers on March 24th and sat in free agency for three months largely due to the health crisis that had shut down pro sports around the world. The Patriots felt that this deal was a low, risk high reward opportunity that they couldn’t pass up.
Cam signed for the veteran’s minimum salary of $1 million dollars, but could earn up to $7.5 million in incentives depending on how he performs in the 2020 season. As of now, Jarrett Stidham is still pegged as the starting QB for New England.
However, a healthy Cam Newton is believed to be the superior QB and should win the starting spot from the second year Stidham.
With that said, Newton’s signing has not only created a buzz in NFL circles, but it has also created a buzz with NFL betting sites as well. Let’s take a look at the latest football odds and see if there’s any value with taking the Patriots now that they have another former NFL MVP at the QB position.
Currently BetOnline has the following betting breakdown for the Patriots win total in 2020:
Gone are the days where the Patriots are a legitimate threat to go undefeated. So, you can ignore the betting option of 15 to 16 wins. You can also ignore the option of 0 to 4 wins as this team has too much talent to finish with that poor of a record.
So, this NFL prop bet really comes down to will they win 9 or more games in 2020. At the time of this writing, New England is listed with the toughest schedule in the NFL for the upcoming season. Their opponents have a combined record of 137-118-1, which is a .537 winning percentage.
Furthermore, the Patriots play six teams who made the Playoffs last year including: the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Texans, Seahawks and Bills twice. That’s seven tough games where I see them going 3-4 or 2-5.
They also play at both Los Angeles teams and have a tough matchup against the Broncos. I see the Patriots going 4-2 in the division, 2-2 against the NFC West, and 4-2 in their remaining conference games.
At best, New England finishes 10-6 on the year. At worse, I see the Patriots going 8-8. For this prop bet the safe play is on the option for 5 to 9 wins. However, the value is on the option of 10 to 14 wins.
Patriots Win Total –10 to 14 Wins (+110)
Will the Patriots Make the Playoffs?
Following the departure of Tom Brady, the Patriots’ odds of making the Playoffs were set at -190 through Bovada. At the time, I believed those odds were highly overvalued.
New England has made the Playoffs in 11 straight seasons. In fact, once Brady took over the starting QB role in 2001, New England only missed the postseason on two occasions (2002, 2008). Over that span, they also won the AFC Conference nine times and a staggering six Super Bowls.
Can the Patriots extend their record Playoff streak to 12 straight seasons after signing Cam Newton?
With the addition of Cam Newton, the chances of New England making the Playoffs have improved as Bovada now has them listed at -230. Furthermore, the NFL added one extra playoff spot to each conference which means seven teams can make the postseason now.
I can’t see the Patriots failing to be one of the Top 7 teams in the AFC now that they have added Cam Newton. They still have an elite defense, the best head coach, a talented offensive coordinator and reputable pieces on offense.
Since I project New England to go 10-6 on the year, I think it’s a safe bet to take New England keeping their Playoff streak alive in 2020-21.
Will Patriots Make the Playoffs? –Yes (-230)
AFC East Betting Odds Following Newton Signing
The one NFL futures bet that has been affected the most from Cam Newton signing with the Patriots is the AFC East divisional betting odds. However, it’s not as cut and dry as some would make it out to be. These odds are all over the place depending on which sports betting site you look at.
Cam Newton vs. AFC East, career: – 7-1 record – 149/252 (59%) – 1,851 yards – 14:3 TD:INT – 95.5 rating* – 52 rushes for 334 yds, 3 TDs
Prior to Tom Brady leaving the Patriots, the opening odds saw New England become a huge betting favorite to win the division at -400 odds. The Buffalo Bills opened at +450, while the Dolphins (+1800) and the Jets (+1400) were longshots at best.
Following Brady’s departure from New England, BetOnline dropped the Patriots AFC East odds to -110 and bumped the Bills up to +175. However, the line movement didn’t end there.
After the NFL Draft, and a few other offseason moves by Buffalo, BetOnline shifted the Bills and Patriots to a tie at +130 odds apiece where they remain even after the Newton signing.
However, other online betting sites don’t view the two teams being that close. The Patriots can be seen as the favorites with odds ranging from +100 to +130 where Buffalo is found in a range of +125 to +160.
The Jets and Dolphins aren’t even factored into this prop bet as most pundits and fans believe that the AFC East is a two team race between the Patriots and the Bills.
In the last 17 years, the Patriots have won the AFC East every season except for 2002 and 2008 when they missed the Playoffs, and then in 2009 when Tom Brady was injured and missed 15 games. The Dolphins won it that year. Buffalo hasn’t won the AFC East since 1995.
Will Cam Newton’ signing extend the Patriots annual winning of the AFC East division?
For me, I still like the Bills over New England in the AFC East. Buffalo has improved with the additions to their roster this offseason, while the Patriots were massive losers except for Cam Newton.
New England had the best defense last year, but lost several key players this offseason on this side of the ball. Buffalo, added more playmakers to a defense that was arguably the third best last year. This is pretty much an even matchup.
Offensively, Buffalo’s o-line has continuity and is the best they’ve had in several years. The Patriots’ o-line lost a few pieces that make me feel Buffalo has the edge here. Buffalo also has the edge at wide receiver and tight end positions with the addition of Diggs to the roster.
The backfield for both teams is pretty stacked, so I will call this one a tie as well. The one area that New England has the edge is Cam Newton over Josh Allen. However, that requires Newton to be 100% healthy and it’s unclear if he will be. Otherwise, Allen is the best QB in the division.
Since Buffalo has a more talented overall roster, with better depth, I like their chances to win this division for the first time in 25 years. They’re a hungry team on the rise with tons of talent on both sides of the ball.
I believe they have enough to overcome New England’s coaching and QB advantages. Additionally, with the Bills divisional odds increasing, they offer better value as well.
AFC East Bet –Buffalo Bills (+150)
Updated AFC Championship Odds
Like with the AFC East divisional odds, the Conference Championship odds have also changed regarding the Patriots as Newton’s signing has prompted sportsbooks to improve New England’s chances at winning the AFC Championship once again.
Caesars Sportsbook dropped the Patriots from +1000 to +900 to win the AFC conference. Other football betting sites have seen a larger movement as well.
Opening AFC Championship odds saw New England listed at +700, squarely behind the Chiefs (+300) and the Ravens (+400). Following the departure of Brady and others, the Patriots fell as low as +1200 to +1400 to win the conference.
Now, most online sportsbooks have New England listed anywhere from +700 to +1000, still firmly behind the Ravens (+333 to +400) and the Chiefs (+275 to +350).
Kansas City is the defending AFC Champs and have the best QB in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes. Even with the addition of Cam Newton, the Patriots don’t have the firepower to hang with KC or even the Ravens who have also improved this offseason.
The signing of Cam Newton certainly helps the Patriots in the division, but it doesn’t close the gap on the Chiefs or Ravens. I would avoid taking New England to win the AFC.
AFC Championship Bet –Avoid Patriots, Go With Chiefs (+300)
Patriots Super Bowl 55 Odds After Signing Cam Newton
Following Super Bowl 54, the Patriots opened at +1000 to +1400 to win Super Bowl 55 in February 2021. Those odds fell as low as +2500 to +3000 depending on which NFL sports betting website you looked at.
Following the signing of Newton, Caesars Sportsbook dropped the Patriots SB 55 odds from +2500 to +2000. Currently, New England can be found at a range of +1400 to +2500 with various online sportsbooks.
Ahead of New England in Super Bowl odds are the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I like all five of these teams to have better seasons than the Patriots. Furthermore, I believe all five teams have a better chance at winning Super Bowl 55 than New England does even with Cam Newton.
As mentioned above, I don’t even see the Patriots being able to win the AFC for the 10th time since 2001. Ironically, their former QB Tom Brady has a better shot with his new team the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go to the Super Bowl than the Patriots do.
Until someone dethrones the Chiefs, I like KC to repeat as champs. I can see Baltimore giving KC a real run for their money in the conference, but Mahomes has too many weapons on offense that they should win most games by outscoring their opponents.
In the NFC, the Saints and Bucs look like SB contenders and are built to make a run at the Conference title. The 49ers appear to have taken a small step back and will be fighting with Seattle just to win the NFC West division.
Like with the AFC Championship prop bet, I would avoid this one as well. The Patriots aren’t better than the five teams mentioned above and there’s still no guarantee that they can even win their division.
SB 55 Bet –Avoid Patriots, Go With KC (+700)
Is There Any Betting Value With Patriots After Signing Cam Newton?
When it comes to Cam Newton, let’s start with the good: he has over 29,000 passing yards, 182 passing TDs to 108 INTs, over 4,800 rushing yards and 58 TDs on the ground in his bright career.
The knock on Newton is his health. He’s missed 16 games over the last two years and there’s no guarantee that he will be 100% healthy this season. If he is, then New England will be one of the Top 4 teams in the AFC. If he’s not, then NE could miss the Playoffs altogether.
Considering the opposition in the division and the conference, along with Newton’s health concerns, I don’t see there being any need to wager on New England to win the AFC or SB 55.
I do still like their odds of -230 to make the Playoffs, but I believe that will be as a Wild Card and not as the AFC East winner as that honor will go to Buffalo. The Bills have a better overall roster with playmakers on both sides of the ball. However, I do like their win total to be over nine on the season.
Superman might be taking his talents to Foxboro, but there’s plenty of kryptonite in the form of better teams in the AFC. You will have better luck betting on Cam Newton with your fantasy football team than with any of the future bets other than New England making the Playoffs.
New England’s Win Total: 10 to 14 wins (+110)
Will Patriots Make Playoffs? Yes (-230)
AFC East: Buffalo Bills (+150)
AFC Championship: Kansas City Chiefs (+300)
Super Bowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs (+700)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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