Politics Futures: Will Joe Biden Complete His First Term in Office?

By in Politics on
6 Minute Read

Over the past five years, American politics have become more divisive than ever. Since the rise of Donald Trump, the ideologies both major American political parties have trended in starkly different directions. It was already difficult to get Democrats and Republicans to agree on much of anything policy-wise even before Trump became president, but the divide is now much deeper than that.

Last November, Joe Biden successfully unseated Trump in the White House by winning the presidential election. Trump was ousted from the presidency after just one term, with Biden taking over back on January 20. Since then, the US government has continued to combat the Covid-19 pandemic while trying to get the struggling economy back up and running.

Biden recently crossed the six-month threshold in his first term. While the economy has rebounded as more and more Americans have gotten vaccinated against the virus, there is still an awfully long way to go before the pandemic is behind us. As of now, the jury is still out on just how impactful Biden’s time in office will be by the time he’s finished.

As you may expect given today’s political climate, most Republicans and Democrats disagree on the job Biden has done to this point. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s overall approval rating nationwide has hovered north of 50 percent since he took office. As of this writing, 50.3 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s work in the Oval Office, while just 43.5 percent disapprove.

BetOnline has a number of Biden-specific prop bets posted as the 46th president continues his first term. Let’s try to dig up some betting value, shall we?

Biden Approval Rating on September 1, 2021

  • Over 50 percent (-120)
  • Under 50 percent (-120)

As mentioned, Biden’s current approval rating is hovering just over 50 percent. While that is still high relative to many other recent presidents at this stage of their respective terms, he has been trending steadily in the wrong direction. Biden opened with a 53 percent approval rating immediately after his inauguration. The number ticked all the way up to 55 percent by January 25, which is still his high-water mark.

Biden’s First Priority Upon Taking Office Was to Try and Fight the Pandemic

The administration has been vocal about the importance of vaccinating as many Americans as possible in order to put this disaster in the rearview mirror. While the admin was able to hit a bunch of early benchmarks with regard to vaccination numbers, those totals have started to wane over the past couple of months.

Vaccination rates have slowed considerably since the beginning of July. It’s likely no surprise that case numbers and hospitalization rates have once again jumped immediately thereafter, and the US is now back over an average of 100,000 new cases on a daily basis. There are still over 90 million eligible Americans that have not gotten a Covid shot.

The surging Covid numbers are likely to blame for Biden’s lagging approval numbers over the past few weeks. While he is still a net positive in terms of favorability among polled voters, the gap has shrunk considerably from where it was back in January.

In order for Biden to keep his approval rating north of 50 percent by September 1, the US will likely have to show some sort of progress with regard to combating the spread of the virus in the coming weeks. Positivity rates have plateaued and started to slow in certain areas. Additionally, states that had been lagging behind the rest in terms of vaccination rates are now starting to finally catch up.

The fact that his approval has gradually diminished certainly isn’t ideal, but I do still think Biden is more likely to remain above 50 percent by September 1. Given the -120 odds on either side of this prop, I think the over is the best bet.

Biden Approval Rating on Sept. 1, 2021 –Over 50% (-120)

Will Biden Leave Office Via Impeachment?

  • Yes (+800)
  • No (-2500)

Donald Trump’s tumultuous term in the White House taught us plenty about how the government works. If you didn’t take civics in school, Trump’s first and only term may well have served as a crash course. He was willing to test the boundaries of the job in just about every regard. In the end, he left the White House in disgrace after his second impeachment in just two years.

Trump was the first and only president to be impeached multiple times. He joined Bill Clinton (1998) and Andrew Johnson (1868) as the only other presidents to have been impeached even once in the process. While he was impeached by the House of Representatives on two separate occasions for two entirely different reasons, Trump was never removed from office via impeachment. He saw out the entirety of his term and departed, as scheduled, on January 20.

Democrats still control the House, but the 2022 midterms are looming. If Republicans are ultimately able to close the gap and wrestle back control, don’t be surprised if we start to hear more and more about Republicans trying to impeach Biden for whatever reason.

Even if they do pull off an impeachment, though, it would take quite the scandal in order for Biden to actually leave office. Two-thirds of the Senate would have to vote in favor of removal at the president’s subsequent impeachment trial. Even if Republicans reclaim a majority in the Senate next year, they won’t have nearly enough votes to kick him out of the White House. Assuming Biden doesn’t do something completely out of character between now and the end of his term, he will not be leaving his post via impeachment.

Will Biden Leave Office Via Impeachment? –No (-2500)

When Will Biden Leave Office?

  • 2025 (-150)
  • Not before 2026 (+320)
  • 2023 (+725)
  • 2022 (+900)
  • 2021 (+1100)
  • 2024 (+1600)

If Biden completes his first term on schedule, he’ll leave office in January of 2025. This is assuming, of course, that he doesn’t run for and win reelection in 2024. This is also assuming that he is still alive by then, and that he hasn’t been forced out of office as a result of some kind of scandal. 2025 is a worthy favorite here, and the -150 odds are surprisingly solid.

Interestingly, the next-best odds belong to 2026 or later at +320. Biden has a good approval rating as of now, but there’s no telling what that number may look like three years from now. Biden won the 2020 election fairly easily, thanks in large part to Trump’s immense unpopularity among non-GOP voters.

Trump has repeatedly hinted at the possibility of running again in 2024. If he does, what would the Democrats do? Biden is already 78.

By November of 2024, he’ll be 82. He does seem to be in fine physical condition, but is he going to want to run for another term at 82? Would the Democrats even want him to?

Biden has never confirmed whether he’ll even run for a second term. At this point, I doubt he will. VP Kamala Harris, whose own 2020 presidential campaign flamed out in a hurry, seems to have gained popularity as a presumptive nominee-in-waiting. Of course, the last time the Democrats had a “nominee-in-waiting,” Hillary Clinton lost in disastrous fashion to Trump in 2016.

If you’re betting on Biden to leave office before 2025, you’re essentially betting on Father Time to step in and make sure he doesn’t complete his first term. Sounds a little too morbid for my tastes. Take the safe bet here, which is Biden to leave office in 2025.

When Will Biden Leave Office? –2025 (-150)

Will Biden Complete His First Full Term?

  • Yes (-225)
  • No (+160)

As mentioned, anything can happen between now and 2025, when Biden’s term is set to expire. With this bet, though, we luckily don’t have to worry about whether Biden will decide to run for re-election or not. You’re simply wagering on whether Biden is still in the job as of the morning of January 20, 2025.

As of now, “yes” is the only legitimate bet to make at political betting sites. There is a little more value on the “no” side at +160, but the +160 odds imply a 38.5 percent chance that Biden won’t complete his term. The -225 odds on “yes” say Biden has a 69 percent chance to stay in office for all four years.

I don’t think the “yes” odds are as high as they should be, which means there is still plenty of value to be had there at -225. Biden will finish out his first term in the White House.

Will Biden Complete His First Full Term? –Yes (-225)
Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...

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