2021 has not necessarily been a banner year for Republicans. Things got off to a rather inauspicious start for the GOP when a roving gang of Donald Trump-supporting hooligans stormed the US Capitol in an attempt to overturn last year’s presidential election. Hundreds of the rioters have since been arrested and charged after over 100 police officers were injured in the melee.
Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming was one of the first and only Republicans to stand up and denounce Trump’s actions since losing the election last November. She subsequently voted to impeach Trump for his role in the chaos, making her one of a very small number of Republicans to do so. In an op-ed in the Washington Post, Cheney wrote,
“Finally, we Republicans need to stand for genuinely conservative principles, and steer away from the dangerous and anti-democratic Trump cult of personality. I am committed to doing that no matter what the short-term consequences might be.”
Well, there were, indeed, consequences. Back in May, Cheney’s own party ousted her from her post as the third-ranked member of the party. Kevin McCarthy, the Minority Leader in the House of Representatives, defended the decision by claiming that Cheney’s anti-Trump rhetoric had become a distraction to the party as a whole. McCarthy said that the GOP’s goal moving forward is to fight against President Joe Biden’s agenda and focus on winning back the majority in both houses of Congress in next year’s midterm elections.
Will Cheney Win Re-Election in 2022?
Cheney’s father, Dick, was the vice president under George W. Bush from 2001 until 2009. He was also Wyoming’s sole representative in the House from 1979 to 1989. So, she comes from a family with strong ties to the Republican Party, especially in the state. Wyoming is arguably the most Republican state in the entire country, as well. Wyoming has not swung for a Democratic in a presidential election since Lyndon B. Johnson took the state’s three electoral college votes way back in 1964.
The Wyoming Republican Party also censured Cheney with a lopsided 66-8 vote for her impeachment vote back in February. While Cheney herself appears to be intent on carving out her own lane within the GOP, it remains to be seen whether she will have enough support to win any more elections in the future. As you can see above, political betting sites have even listed Cheney as a pretty substantial underdog to win her re-election fight in the House next year.
Wyoming GOP votes overwhelmingly to censure Rep. Liz Cheney for voting to impeach President Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. https://t.co/oacOSKsSl8
After voting in favor of the censure, the Wyoming GOP demanded that Cheney immediately resign or risk being primaried in next year’s election. Clearly, she won’t resign, so the state’s only House representative is going to have to win a re-election battle against members of her own party. Again, Republicans are not having a very good year.
In 2016, Trump carried Wyoming with over 68 percent of the vote. Last year, Trump won nearly 70 percent of the vote in the state. While Trump’s support among Republicans in some states waned from 2016 to 2020, he was slightly more popular in Wyoming after his first term in office. A Democrat hasn’t represented Wyoming in the House of Representatives since Teno Roncalio left office in 1978.
Wyoming is home to just under 580,000 people, which makes it the least-populous state in the union. Because it has so few people, Cheney is the only state representative in the US House. Back in 2014, she ran for one of the state’s US Senate seats before pulling out of the race. Two years later, she won election to the House with over 60 percent of the vote. Her popularity has only increased from there. She claimed 21 of the 23 counties in Wyoming in her 2018 re-election bid, while winning over 69 percent of the vote to defeat Lynnette Grey Bull just last year.
Will Cheney Win Re-Election in 2022? –Yes (+300)
Who Will Run Against Cheney?
Apparently, the Wyoming GOP is hoping to replace Cheney with a more Trumpy candidate. Anthony Bouchard, a state Senator that failed in previous bids for a seat in the House and US Senate, announced his candidacy for Cheney’s seat back in January. Bouchard has accused Cheney of being “out of touch” with the modern GOP.
Just a few months after announcing his candidacy, Bouchard admitted to having impregnated a 14-year-old girl back when he was 18. State Representative Chuck Gray, Wyoming Secretary of State Ed Buchanan, and Christian Broadcasting Network executive Darin Smith, who previously ran for this same seat, are a few other candidates that have already thrown their hats into the proverbial ring.
In the end, Trump’s endorsement may determine which candidate will emerge as the most viable threat to Cheney’s seat. Trump’s popularity has remained steadfast in Wyoming, while Cheney’s has tanked among Wyoming Republican voters. We know Trump won’t be endorsing Cheney, of course. A crowded field of candidates could ultimately be something that helps Cheney win a plurality of the votes, but the incumbent is certainly facing an uphill climb to stay in office.
(New poll shows Darin Smith crushing Liz Cheney by 50 points) As Trump seeks Republican to take down Cheney, poll shows Darin Smith could be a winner https://t.co/0LL98NcUr7
While she won’t get Trump, Cheney has already garnered a number of other high-profile endorsements. US Senators Joni Ernst, Susan Collins, John Barrasso, and Bill Cassidy are among them, as are Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger and former House Speaker Paul Ryan.
I don’t think Cheney’s chances of winning re-election are as distant as her current +300 odds may indicate. If she somehow escapes the Republican primary, one would imagine she will remain a heavy favorite to win in the general election against any Democratic candidate. Republican voters in Wyoming would presumably rather hold their nose and vote for Cheney if it’s the only alternative to adding to the Democratic majority in the US House.
As a result, taking a stab at Cheney to win re-election next year at +300 is a viable long-shot wager. She’s going to have a hard time beating whichever challenger ultimately wins Trump’s endorsement, but it’s worth remembering that these elections are still well over a year away. An awful lot can happen between now and then.
If Cheney is able to use the next year to steadily rebuild her resume and curry more favor with Wyoming voters, who’s to say she can’t win a fourth term?
The safe bet is to bet against Cheney winning re-election, but the -600 odds don’t offer much upside. So, take a flier on the value of “yes” at +300.
Will Cheney Run for President in 2024?
While Cheney would presumably love to hold on to her current post as Wyoming’s lone representative in the House, it’s fair to wonder whether she has higher political aspirations. She’s still only 55. Considering we just elected back-to-back presidents in their 70s, Cheney still has plenty of time to make a run for the White House if she wants to in the future.
Could she have her sights set on a run for the presidency in 2024? It’s certainly possible. For the purposes of this prop, we don’t have to worry about whether she will ultimately become popular enough to actually win. All she has to do in order for this bet to cash is announce her candidacy at some point in the next three years.
In an interview with NBC back in May, Cheney said,
“I intend to be the leader, one of the leaders, in a fight to help to restore our party, in a fight to bring our party back to substance and principle, and in a fight to make clear that we won’t participate in the really dangerous effort that’s underway.”
2024 National Republican Primary Poll:
DeSantis 25% Pence 23% Cruz 9% Trump Jr. 5% Haley 5% Romney 4% Rubio 3% Cotton 1% T. Scott 1% Hawley 1% Abbott 1% Noem 1% Christie 1% Carlson 0% Pompeo 0% Hogan 0% Sasse 0% R. Scott 0% Cheney 0% Taylor Greene 0% Lindell 0%@EchelonInsights
If you take those words at face value, it’s clear that Cheney is hoping to be the one to lead the Republican Party out from under Trump. Whether she can actually succeed in that endeavor is another story.
One thing is for sure, though. She won’t be able to do much leading if she’s not in a position of power. If she loses in her re-election bid next year, for example, her best chance of succeeding in her goal may be to try and run for the presidency instead.
It will be fascinating to see how the field of contenders vying for the GOP nomination shakes out. Trump has hinted on numerous occasions that he could run for a third time. If he does, that will effectively torpedo the chances of any other candidate. Trump is still the most popular Republican of them all.
Cheney is one prospective candidate that likely wouldn’t shy away from running directly against Trump. That would be yet another uphill battle, but Cheney certainly isn’t one to show deference to Trump as the be-all, end-all for the party. Cheney is an excellent bet to run for the White House in a couple of years, especially given the current -150 odds.
Will Cheney Run for President in 2024? –Yes (-150)
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...
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