Election Day is just two weeks from today. In a way, it’s hard to believe. It feels like only yesterday that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in a landmark upset in 2016. In another way, it feels as though Trump has been in office for an entire lifetime, especially when you consider the way 2020 has played out thus far.
Election Season Means Debate Season
The second debate between Trump and Joe Biden was canceled after Trump backed out, but another debate is still on the schedule for Thursday night. The only real alternative on TV that night is a Thursday Night Football game between the Eagles and Giants, so pickings are slim. If you’re reading this, you already know you’ll be tuned in for what could be a calamitous second debate between the two presidential hopefuls.
One way to make the viewing experience more palatable is to place some wagers on what may happen on the debate stage that night. The debate moderator, Kristen Welker, reportedly has the ability to mute either candidate’s microphone if his time to speak is up. Needless to say, that technology would’ve been quite useful during the first debate a few weeks ago.
Donald Trump says a lot of things. He also tweets a lot of things. The first debate went off the rails because Trump could not keep himself from trying to interrupt Biden at every turn. It was pretty clearly his debate strategy to talk as much as possible as a way of trying to throw Biden off his game. In reality, all it did was make Trump seem quite annoying!
Whether Trump’s strategy changes in light of his disastrous first debate performance remains to be seen. He didn’t acquit himself particularly well during any of his three debates against Clinton four years ago, but that obviously didn’t hurt his chances with the general electorate. One thing we do know, however, is that Trump will take his never-ending list of grievances with him to the debate stage.
I was right again! Steve Scully just admitted he was lying about his Twitter being hacked. The Debate was Rigged! He was suspended from @cspan indefinitely. The Trump Campaign was not treated fairly by the “Commission”. Did I show good instincts in being the first to know?
Election betting sites are essentially asking which attack line or complaint Trump will issue first. “Fake news” has obviously been a popular refrain for Trump and his supporters dating back to the beginning of his candidacy in 2015, and he has already railed against Welker by trying to suggest that she is a Democratic operative disguising herself as an impartial moderator. Whenever he’s asked a question about a subject he doesn’t like, he’ll simply dismiss the entire idea as fake news. “Hoax” is another word that has taken on a new meaning with Trump in the White House.
Another common strategy for Trump has been to try and paint Biden as a socialist. When that failed, he altered it slightly to try and suggest that Biden is simply a Trojan horse for the “radical left” side of the Democratic Party. He’ll try to do this again on Thursday night. If he’s asked about whether he will accept the results of the election win-or-lose, Trump will also surely pivot to calling the election process “rigged” against him.
“Fake news” is your safe choice as the odds-on favorite here, but I’m willing to take a shot on “rigged” given the +600 odds. Trying to discredit the election is one of his go-to strategies at the moment, so the value on “rigged” here really stands out.
What Will Donald Trump Say First? –Rigged (+600)
What Will Joe Biden Say First?
Come on, man (+200)
Shut up (+700)
As you can see, the list of the things Biden may say first is largely comprised of things he may say to try to get Trump to stop talking. One thing I think we can scratch off the list right away is “clown” at +600. While he clearly thinks Trump fits the description, Biden said after the last debate that he regretted calling the president a “clown” on stage. So, I’d imagine that’s something he’ll stay away from this time around.
While both candidates are battling to win Pennsylvania, the value on Biden saying “Scranton” first at +150 isn’t really there. Scranton is Biden’s hometown, and he will almost surely refer to it at some point on Thursday, but this debate is happening in Nashville. There is no real natural way for Biden to shoehorn Scranton into the discussion right away, so pass on that at +150.
“Come on, man” is a good option at +200. The first debate was essentially just 90 minutes of Biden looking irritated while uttering different variations of that line as Trump talked all over him. Trump could take a more relaxed approach on Thursday, but does anybody really believe that’ll be the case? You can get more upside in “shut up” or “shush” at +700 apiece, but “come on, man” is very high on Biden’s list of Bidenisms.
“Unpresidential” is another logical pick at +250. Biden will try to sell his own vision for the country to voters, but part of his job is to also try and talk voters out of potentially casting their votes for Trump. Trump hasn’t been a particularly conventional president in any way, and labeling him as “unpresidential” has been a common slam over the past few years.
That said, “come on, man” is just too perfect. Take a shot on Biden uttering that first at +200.
What Will Joe Biden Say First? –“Come on, man” (+200)
What Will Be Said First by Either Candidate?
One of Trump’s major talking points ahead of this election is the notion that the US will be overrun by anarchists if Biden wins the election. Trump constantly points to the riots that took place around the country over the summer amid the largely peaceful racial justice protests as proof that America is doomed to burn if Republicans happen to lose this election.
Trump has repeatedly warned that Biden will “abolish the suburbs.” That doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense, of course, but he seems to think it sounds good. He constantly rails against Antifa, a nebulous organization that Trump blames for much of the violence that took place over the summer.
On the flip side, we have Qanon. Qanon is a right-wing conspiracy that alleges that the world is run by a gang of political and Hollywood elites that run a child trafficking ring on the side. The conspiracy claims that Trump has been chosen to try and thwart these elites, and that one day will come soon in which all of those within the cabal will be arrested and brought to justice. It’s all extremely stupid.
Trump has been repeatedly asked to condemn Qanon, but he has thus far resisted because he knows that the group is largely comprised of his own supporters. Both Antifa and Qanon will likely come up on Thursday, but we’re left to guess as to which will come up first.
Because Trump loves to bring up Antifa while avoiding the subject of Qanon, it’s easy to see why Antifa is a heavy favorite at sites with political betting odds. Trump figures to do most of the talking yet again, and it’s easy to imagine him spouting off about Antifa as early as he possibly can. There isn’t much upside here at -400, but that seems like the logical way to go.
What Will Be Said First By Either Candidate? –Antifa (-400)
Will Biden Be Shown Wearing a Mask During the Broadcast?
Politics are all about drawing contrasts between yourself and your opponent. The vast majority of Americans support the wearing of masks while in public to try and slow the spread of coronavirus. Over the course of his campaign, Biden has consistently worn a mask while in public. Trump has rarely been seen in a mask, despite having actually contracted COVID-19 just a few weeks ago.
Joe Biden debuts a new look ahead of campaign stops in Florida: the double mask.
Neither candidate will be wearing a mask during the debate, of course. Afterward, though, Biden and Trump will likely be joined by their wives on stage. This happened after the last presidential debate, and it also happened after the vice presidential debate between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris.
Once it’s over, Biden will likely don his mask before he leaves the stage. The cameras typically stay on after the debate has ended, so it’s pretty likely that we see a masked Biden at some point during the broadcast. There’s still a decent amount of value on “yes” given the -150 odds, so take that bet and run with it.
Will Biden Wear a Mask? –Yes (-150)
Will Trump Be Asked About White Supremacists?
One of the most notable developments during the first debate was the question from Chris Wallace to Trump about denouncing white supremacy. People identifying as white supremacists have come out in staunch support of Trump during his presidency, so Wallace took the opportunity to ask whether Trump would denounce the hate groups.
Trump proceeded to tell the Proud Boys, one of those white supremacy groups, to “stand down and stand by.” That’s hardly a denouncement, of course. The Proud Boys actually took it as a call to action, and they’ve turned it into one of their slogans. Whoops!
Trump will likely be asked about white supremacy again. The odds are in favor of it at -150. The question is whether he will actually denounce them this time around.
Will Trump Be Asked About White Supremacists? – Yes (-150)
Will Trump Say “Black Lives Matter?”
Trump has repeatedly derided the Black Lives Matter movement in recent months. Back in July, he called BLM “a symbol of hate”, and last month he called it “toxic propaganda.” He has also railed against Black Lives Matter as “an extreme socialist” organization that actually harms Black Americans.
Racial injustice remains a hot topic in the US. Welker announced that race in America would be one of the topics broached at Thursday’s debate, so we can expect the usual comments from Trump about Antifa, etc.
Trump surely won’t utter “Black Lives Matter” as a show of support for the movement, but all he has to do for this prop to cash is to say the phrase. The context doesn’t matter. Trump hasn’t been bashful about saying those three words together in the past, so I’m a bit surprised that “yes” faces such long odds at +550.
I think there’s an excellent chance Trump says “Black Lives Matter” during the debate, so grab the major plus-money value on “yes” at +550.
Will Trump Say “Black Lives Matter?” – Yes (+550)
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...
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