SB 53 Betting Trends: New England Patriots Super Bowl Betting History
Whether you love them or hate them, the New England Patriots dynasty has been nothing short of amazing. By defeating the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, the New England Patriots will head to Super Bowl 53, which is their 9th Super Bowl appearance in the last 18 years.
Ironically, the Patriots are playing against the Los Angeles Rams, which was the opponent the Patriots faced in their first Super Bowl appearance of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era.
Despite New England being a dominant force on the football field, they haven’t always been as dominant for NFL sports bettors. In fact, the Patriots are just 3-5 ATS in their first 8 Super bowls and just 4-4 with the Over.
Currently, New England is a 2-point favorite against the Rams at Super Bowl LIII, with an Over/Under of 58 total points. Let’s take a look at the Patriots’ previous Super Bowl appearances and each game’s betting odds to see if there are any trends that can factor into our Super Bowl 53 betting.
Super Bowl 36: Patriots vs Rams
- Spread: Rams -14
- O/U: 52.5 total points
The Patriots came into this Super Bowl as a 14 point underdog, which made them the third biggest underdog in Super Bowl history. The Over/Under was set at 52.5 total points as the Rams were one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL.
The game was controlled by New England for 3+ quarters before the Rams erased a 14 point deficit and tied it up 17 to 17. Brady got the ball back and his legend began, as the Patriots drove down the field and Adam Vinatieri kicked a game winning FG to defeat the Rams 20-17.
New England joined the New York Jets (led by Joe Namath) as the only two teams to be a two-touchdown or more underdog and win the game outright. The 37 point total was well below the O/U of 52.5 points.
Super Bowl 38: Patriots vs Panthers
- Spread: Patriots -7
- O/U: 37.5 total points
Coming into this SB matchup, both teams were considered to have two of the best defenses in the NFL. This caused NFL sportsbooks to list the Over/Under at 37.5 total points, which was the lowest Super Bowl total in nearly 15 years. With that said, these two teams put on a very entertaining Super Bowl and obliterated the low point total by scoring a combined 63 total points.
For three quarters, the game was easily hitting the Under as New England led 14-10 heading into the 4th quarter. But, that’s when everything erupted and the teams started raining points.
Carolina outscored New England 19 to 18 in the final frame for a combined total of 37 points in the 4th quarter. These two teams basically hit the O/U in the 4th quarter alone.
New England got the ball back for the last drive of the game and, just like with SB XXXVI, Tom Brady led the team down the field and Adam Vinatieri kicked another game winning field goal to give the Patriots a 32-29 victory. The Patriots didn’t cover the 7-point spread. But, the legends of Brady and Vinatieri became bigger than the game itself.
Super Bowl 39: Patriots vs Eagles
- Spread: Patriots -7
- O/U: 47 total points
The Patriots returned to the Super Bowl for the second straight year, their third in four years. New England was taking on the Donovan McNabb led Philadelphia Eagles, who finally got out of the NFC Championship game and into the Super Bowl. However, despite how talented the Eagles were, New England closed as a 7-point favorite.
After a scoreless 1st quarter, the Eagles got on the board in the 2nd quarter with a TD pass by McNabb. That woke up New England who went on to outscore Philly 24 to 7 and take a commanding 24-14 lead halfway through the 4th.
Philly fought back to close the gap at 24-21, and even had the ball with less than a minute left in the game. Unfortunately, McNabb threw an interception and the Patriots held on to win.
This was the Patriots least impressive SB performance to date as they didn’t cover the spread and the Under hit. However, the win improved their record to 3-0 in Super Bowls and cemented the legacies of Brady and Belichick.
Super Bowl 42: Patriots vs Giants
- Spread: Patriots -12
- O/U: 55 total points
In the first of two Super Bowl meetings against the Giants, the Patriots came into this matchup as a double digit favorite and as high as 12.5 points at some sportsbooks. The Giants barely even got into the playoffs and had already made a miraculous run just to get to the Super Bowl. The Patriots were once again one of the best teams in the NFL.
Just like New England did to the Rams at Super Bowl 36, the Giants stunned the NFL universe by pulling off a last minute come from behind win over the huge favorites. Although New England was a bigger Underdog to the Rams, the Giants SB 42 victory over the Patriots felt like a bigger upset considering the disparity in talent.
The Giants scored a TD with 35 seconds left in the game to upset New England and earn Eli Manning his first SB victory. This game is also remembered for David Tyree’s ridiculous late-game catch.
Oddsmakers missed the boat on this game for the O/U as these two teams combined to score just 31 total points, which was tied for the lowest Super Bowl total since the late 1970’s. Additionally, the Patriots were never even close to covering the point spread. The most New England was up by at any point in the game was 7 to 3 and 14 to 10.
Super Bowl 46: Patriots vs Giants 2
- Spread: Patriots -3
- O/U: 53 total points
4 years later, these two teams met again. And like in SB 42, the Patriots were a favorite and both teams were expected to combined for at least 53 total points.
The Giants got out to an early 9-0 lead before New England closed out the second quarter with a touchdown and the halftime lead of 10-9.
In the second half, the two teams alternated scores with the Patriots leading 17-15 until late in the 4th quarter. And, like in SB 42, Eli Manning got the ball back with a few minutes left in the game, drove his team down the field, and scored the game winning TD. New York beat New England 21 to 17.
The Giants once again upset the Patriots to claim their 2nd Super Bowl in 4 years. Just like their first encounter, the Patriots didn’t cover the spread and the game wasn’t even close to hitting the Over.
Super Bowl 49: Patriots vs Seahawks
- Spread: Patriots -1
- O/U: 47 total points
Out of all of the Patriots Super Bowl appearances, this one was the tightest matchup heading into the game. With many betting sites, the spread was a Pick. However, right before the SB started, the line moved to -1 in favor of New England.
The Seahawks flexed their muscles early in the game as they held the Patriots’ high scoring offense to zero points in the 1st quarter. But, that changed in the 2nd quarter as both teams scored two touchdowns apiece and entered halftime tied at 14-14.
The second half saw Seattle get out to a 24-14 lead late in the 3rd quarter. From there, the Patriots shut down the Seattle offense and ended up scoring two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to win the game.
Keep in mind, this is the game where Seattle decided to throw the ball at the goal line instead of running it with Marshawn Lynch. The end result was that Patriots’ defensive back Malcom Butler intercepted the ball and won the game 28-24. If Seattle let Lynch run it in from two yards out, the Seahawks would’ve won the game.
New England covered the spread and the Over hit due to the two late touchdowns scored by New England against the Legion of Boom defense.
Super Bowl 51: Patriots vs Falcons
- Spread: Patriots -3
- O/U: 57 total points
This Super Bowl was probably Tom Brady’s finest moment. Atlanta jumped out to a huge 21-3 lead at halftime. Just about everyone wrote off the Patriots and celebrated their demise. Unfortunately for those people, there was still a second half to play and New England took full advantage of it.
New England would outscore the Falcons 25 to 7 in the final two quarters, which resulted in game going into overtime. This was the first time the Super Bowl went into OT and it’s not a surprise that New England won this historical first.
The Patriots got the ball in OT, drove down the field and won the game with ease. The duo of Tom Brady and James White proved to be too much for the Falcons to handle.
Tom Brady finished the game going 43 of 62 for 466 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Brady’s attempts, completions, and passing yards set Super Bowl records at the time. James White also set SB records at the time, with 14 receptions, most points scored with 20, and tied a record with 3 TDs.
Brady got the SB MVP award, but even Tom said that White deserved it. So, he gave white the truck that comes with the MVP award.
New England covered the 3-point spread and the two teams nailed the Over due to going into overtime.
Super Bowl 52: Patriots vs Eagles 2
- Spread: Patriots -4.5
- O/U: 48.5 total points
Once again, the Patriots were playing in a second consecutive Super Bowl. This time, they were going up against the Philadelphia Eagles, who they defeated 13 years prior at Super Bowl 39.
This is considered one of the best Super Bowls for NFL fans due to the non-stop action, back and forth plays, and some memorable moments that are still talked about a year later.
The Eagles scored half way through the 1st and didn’t trail in the game until New England went up 33 to 32 with 9:22 left in the 4th quarter. From there, Philly would score 9 more points and fend off the Patriots to win 41 to 33.
The Patriots didn’t cover, but this game easily hit the Over. Oddsmakers didn’t expect a high scoring game, but the teams hit the point total halfway through the 3rd quarter and would go on to score another 26 combined points. The “Philly special” play was born this game as was the legend of Eagles quarterback Nick Foles.
Super Bowl 53: Patriots vs Rams 2
- Spread: Patriots -2
- O/U: 58 total points
Like with the majority of Patriots Super Bowls, New England is the early favorite. However, I do expect these lines to shift some as we get closer to February 3rd. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see New England favored by up to 3 points and the O/U come down closer to 57 total points.
The Patriots have a huge experience advantage over the Rams when it comes to Super Bowls. As we detailed, this will be New England’s 9th SB appearance in the last 18 years. This is the first SB appearance for the Rams since they lost to the Patriots in 2001-02.
In total, the Rams have been to 3 Super Bowls and are 1-2 over those games. Their only SB win was at SB 34 when they defeated the Tennessee Titans 23-16.
The Rams are so talented that they’re also the odds on favorite to win next year’s Super Bowl. However, before they can think about building a dynasty in So-Cal, they will have to get past the Patriots in two weeks. As the talented Chiefs saw, it’s easier said than done.