Serie A Week Four Preview, Predictions, & Betting Tips
We’re heading into the fourth week of the Serie A, and there are a total of ten matchups on the table. While the matchups aren’t the greatest, there are some that present great opportunities for bettors. This is a week of the favorites, and if you manage to pick the right underdog, you might just find yourself with a lot more cash in your pocket.
Let’s take a look at all of them and determine which present the best betting opportunity.
Chievo vs Atalanta
- Home Win (37/19)
- Draw (23/10)
- Away Win (33/19)
The two teams are 13th and 14th respectively in the league, so this should certainly be an interesting matchup. Atalanta haven’t seemed able to replicate the success that qualified them for the Europa League last season, and this decline can be blamed on losing some of their best players – including Kessie and Conti both going to Milan.
Atalanta are currently slightly favored in the matchup, and I honestly think they’re a much better bet than Chievo. While they have certainly lost some of their star players, they still have Alejandro Gomez, and their two losses on the season were to very good teams – Napoli and Roma.
Chievo, on the other hand, have a much weaker lineup. While being the home team is always an advantage, Chievo simply doesn’t have the fan base or the talent needed to best a team like Atalanta.
Give me a relatively simple Atalanta win for this one.
Crotone vs Inter
- Home Win (11/1)
- Draw (5/1)
- Away Win (4/11)
Inter are heavy favorites in this one, and rightfully so. After starting off the season with three straight wins, Inter find themselves at the top of the table. While they didn’t make any stunning acquisitions over the summer transfer window, new coach Luciano Spaletti has unified his squad.
Inter are playing better than ever, and they’ll be looking for revenge. They suffered a disappointing result to Crotone last year, one that would cost them dearly in the race for a Europa League spot. Crotone, on the other hand, have yet to win a game, and their last-gasp heroics last year seem to have faded off.
This should be an easy win for the Nerazzuri.
Fiorentina vs Bologna
- Home Win (4/7)
- Draw (7/2)
- Away Win (32/5)
Fiorentina have not had the start to the season they’ve been looking for, grabbing just three points in their first three games. It was to be expected, especially considering the financial turmoil the club is in. In fact, Bologna are actually above the Viola in the table.
While the odds certainly favor Fiorentina, I think that’s a mistake. Sure, Bologna aren’t a great team, but Fiorentina can’t claim to be either. They’ve offloaded some of their best players, and they’ll have to work If they wish to emerge with a win. They lost to Sampdoria already, and there’s no reason why the same thing couldn’t happen here.
Bologna offer great odds, and in the sport of soccer, nothing is set in stone. If there’s one matchup here that offers the most potential to win big, it’s this one. While I’m not guaranteeing that Fiorentina will lose to Bologna, I will say that the odds of it happening far outweigh the betting risk.
I’m picking the underdog in this one.
Genoa vs Lazio
- Home Win (58/19)
- Draw (13/5)
- Away Win (21/20)
Genoa will take on Lazio this Sunday, and based on recent form, it shouldn’t be close. Lazio humiliated Milan last week, and while the Rossoneri certainly weren’t playing their best football, you have to give credit to the Biancocelesti.
They possess a fiery attack, one capable of striking at any time, and Ciro Immobile has been as deadly as ever, scoring a hat trick in last week’s win. Unless Genoa are able to make some serious changes in defense, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to handle Lazio’s star-studded attack.
Don’t count Genoa out just yet, however. They played a part in some major upsets last season, and they often play best against the better teams. They were leading 2-0 against Juventus until an incredible Bianconeri comeback, and they posted a respectable 0-0 result against Sassuolo.
If Lazio play the way they can, they’re going to emerge with the victory, but it’ll be closer than most people expect.
Milan vs Udinese
- Home Win (4/9)
- Draw (4/1)
- Away Win (17/2)
After a very disappointing performance against Lazio last week, Milan will be hunting for a win. They dominated Austria Wein in the Europa League, but they’ll have to be wary of their opponents in the league. Udinese are not a bad side, and if fatigue plays a part in the matchup, then Udinese certainly have a chance to come home with the win.
Milan are definitely the better squad on paper, and they’ll be heading into the matchup expected to win quite comfortably, but if there’s anything Milan has taught us in recent years, it’s that things are never as clear cut and obvious as they may seem. After an incredible summer spending spree, Milan are expected to make a rebound. This matchup will be a big indicator of whether that success is possible – will Milan succumb to worse teams like in previous years or is this truly a new side?
Udinese will also be looking to regain some confidence. After poor showings against SPAL and Chievo in the first two weeks, they rebounded with a win against Genoa, and they have the potential to do it again at the San Siro.
Being a Milan fan myself, I’m hoping that they take home the win. It might not be pretty, but the Rossoneri should get the job done at the end.
Napoli vs Benevento
- Home Win (1/8)
- Draw (23/2)
- Away Win (30/1)
In what should be the most lopsided matchup of the week, Napoli will take on newly promoted Benevento. The away side currently sit last in the league, and having only scored one goal in their first three matchups, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to compete with, let alone trouble the Partenopei.
So far, Napoli have looked practically unstoppable. They’ve crushed all three of their opponents in the league — Verona, Atalanta, and Bologna — by a combined scoreline of 9-2, and one could certainly make a case for them having the best attack in the league, perhaps even better than Juventus’ Argentinian duo of Paolo Dybala and Gonzalo Higuain.
They suffered a very poor result against Shakhtar in the Champions League, and this seems like the perfect opportunity to pick themselves up. They are projected to wipe the floor with Benevento, and I predict that they’ll do exactly that.
Roma vs Verona
- Home Win (2/9)
- Draw (7/1)
- Away Win (17/1)
Roma haven’t exactly had the perfect start. In their first three matchups, they have emerged with only three points, something that we’re not accustomed to seeing from Roma, especially in recent years. Whether it’s due to the loss of coach Luciano Spalletti to Inter or an overall decline in form, Roma need a result and fast.
Luckily for them, they’re facing one of the worst teams in the league. If Roma don’t manage to win this week, it’s time to sound the panic alarm. They have one of the best lineups in the league, and with stars like Nainggolan, Dzeko, and Florenzi, there’s no reason they should be losing against Verona.
Verona have scored just one goal, and they’ve also conceded a league-high eight, placing them second to last in the table. Barring a miracle, this should be a very easy win for Roma. But if Roma continues to play the way they have and struggle against a lackluster Verona side, it definitely won’t bode well for the future.
Sassuolo vs Juventus
- Home Win (9/1)
- Draw (62/17)
- Away Win (1/2)
One of the more interesting matchups this week, Sassuolo will take on Juventus at home. The dominant power of Italian soccer in the last five years has looked just as dominant, and while they did lose 3-0 to Barcelona in the Champions League, they will find refuge in the fact that they’re playing a much worse team this time around.
Juventus have the best team in the Serie A, and they have proved it time and time again. The odds reflect this, and all signs are pointing towards a simple Juventus win. Sassuolo, on the other hand, seem unable to replicate the magic that put them into the Europa League just two years ago, and they find themselves in the relegation zone because of it.
This could be a sneaky bet for a draw. Sassuolo usually turn it up against big teams like Juventus, and the Bianconeri will be demoralized after a defeat at the Camp Nou. Plenty of goals will be scored, but will there be a winner?
SPAL vs Cagliari
- Home Win (19/13)
- Draw (5/2)
- Away Win (9/4)
SPAL may not have been in the top flight of Italian football for almost 50 years, but they’re playing as though they’re regulars. They pushed Lazio to a draw, and while they still lost to Inter, it was by a respectable scoreline of 2-0.
Cagliari haven’t been playing badly either; they edged out Crotone last week, and they were unlucky to not get a point against Milan in the second week. They have offensive talent, but their main problems lie in defense. If they can remain compact in the back and limit SPAL’s chances, they definitely have a good shot at winning this.
This is SPAL’s season. They have nothing to lose and nothing to prove. While we shouldn’t expect a Leicester-esque result, I believe SPAL have what it takes to stay mid table and remain in the league. This will be a fairly even matchup, but SPAL have looked the better side, and with the crowd cheering their name, I’m going with them to take it home.
Torino vs Sampdoria
- Home Win (4/5)
- Draw (7/2)
- Away Win (17/4)
Both teams have started the season quite well, combining for a total of 13 points in their first five matches (Sampdoria have only played twice so far) – seven for Torino and six for Sampdoria. It should be a pretty even encounter, but Torino are still the large favorites.
I Granata have the better team, but they haven’t necessarily been the better of the two sides so far. Sure, Sampdoria have only played Benevento and a struggling Fiorentina so far, but Torino have been anything but impressive. They only beat Benevento by one goal, and they also recorded a draw against Bologna.
Along with the Fiorentina vs. Bologna matchup, this seems like one of the best matchups for bettors. If you bet on Sampdoria, you’ll get a pretty good payout, and based on Torino’s recent form, it’s definitely a possibility.
I’m taking Sampdoria in this one. They’ve played well in their two games so far, and Torino don’t look like last year’s team – they lost some valuable members over the summer window, and while Belotti is still there, I don’t think they’ll be able to grab another win.