ShoBox Betting Preview: Leo vs Tabanao, Undercard Odds and Picks
ShoBox Betting Preview: Leo vs Tabanao, Undercard Odds and Picks
On Friday, April 5th, ShowBox: The New Generation in conjunction with Mayweather Promotions will be live from Sam’s Town in Las Vegas, NV, for Sin City Showdown. The event will feature three undefeated prospects on the verge of becoming contenders in their respective divisions. The feature of the night is a 122 pound battle between Angelo Leo and Neil Tabanao.
Also on the card is a super featherweight bout featuring Xavier Martinez taking on John Moralde and local prospect Andres Cortes battling Jahmal Dyer in a super featherweight contest. Leo, Martinez and Cortes are the three undefeated prospects that this week’s edition of ShoBox: The New Generation is centered on. Those three main card fights will make up the televised portion of the event. The main card will begin at 10 PM ET and can be seen on Showtime.
Boxing betting sites have Leo listed as a huge betting favorite in the main event. However, the rest of the card’s fights are closer in betting odds according to boxing sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at these fights to see if there’s any betting value and KO our picks. All boxing odds are courtesy of 5Dimes.
Andres Cortes (10-0, 6 KOs) vs Jahmal Dyer (9-1, 5 KOs)
- Andres Cortes (-390)
- Jahmal Dyer (+300)
Cortes vs Dyer is scheduled to open up the televised portion of the event. The undefeated Cortes is looking to continue his ascension up the ladder under the Mayweather Promotions banner. He comes into this contest as a solid betting favorite. Dyer, who has just one loss, is one of the oldest fighters on the card. He’s a decent underdog, with very little value or appeal as a flyer.
Dyer vs Cortes Preview
|Boxer||Jahmal Dyer||Andres Cortes|
Cortes is a decorated amateur boxer who comes from a family of boxers. The native Las-Vegas fighter signed with Mayweather Promotions after being discovered by Mayweather himself. Cortes has already fought this year and won 2 ½ months ago via RTD over Fajardo. Since then, Andres has been continuing his training. The fighter himself says that he’s only taken a week off of training this entire year and he’s ready for this fight.
Dyer poses the toughest challenge for Cortes in his young career. As for his opponent, Andres doesn’t see anything special about Jahmal, but he does believe a win will get his name out there more:
“I don’t see anything special on Dyer. I just see another opponent. He’s just there for me to beat. I see that he is tough but comes with nothing special. It will definitely set things higher; it will set higher standards for me. The sky is the limit from this fight on. Just to getting my name out there will bring a lot more opportunities for me.”
Dyer has won 5 straight fights after losing via TKO 14 months ago. He’s already fought twice in 2019, winning both bouts via UD. However, one of those fights was against Darel Harris who was 1-9-1 at the time. His next bout against Dixon last month, was a more challenging opponent.
Like Cortes, Dyer doesn’t know much about his opponent. Yet, he believes a victory over Cortes on ShowBox will change his life:
“I don’t know much about Andres Cortes and, frankly, had never heard of him before I was offered this fight. Since then, I have looked him up and I know he is a good fighter. But I don’t think he has ever been taken into deep waters. Winning this fight will change my life. I am approaching this fight, both mentally and in training, like it is the unified world title – like it is the fight of my life.“
Can Cortes Remain Unbeaten?
I like what I hear from Dyer. He’s making this contest against Cortes the biggest fight of his life. However, I just don’t have confidence in Jahmal pulling off the upset. I believe he will make this a tough fight and push it the full distance, but I’m taking Cortes in this one. Andres looks like the bigger prospect and appears to be the better overall fighter. I believe he will outwork and outbox Dyer in this contest. I’m taking Cortes to win via UD.
Xavier Martinez (13-0, 9 KOs) vs John Moralde (21-2, 11 KOs)
- Xavier Martinez (-720)
- John Moralde (+510)
Martinez is a significant betting favorite for this co-featured bout. Martinez is an undefeated prospect that has some buzz surrounding him as he enters Friday’s boxing event. Moralde is a few years older, but has already suffered two losses and oddsmakers view him as a significant underdog. I don’t see any betting value for either fighter as this should be a clear-cut fight. I also don’t see Moralde being worth a flyer.
Moralde vs Martinez Preview
|Boxer||John Moralde||Xavier Martinez|
Moralde is a 5-time national champion, but comes into this bout having gone 2-2 in his last 4 fights. The Filipino fighter was 19-0 prior to his latest struggles. He fought three times in 2018 and went 2-1. Moralde has also fought a few times in the United States, having gone 1-2 over that span.
Moralde credits his opponent for being a promising prospect, but believes he will pull off the upset and go on to bigger things:
“I see him as a very promising prospect, and he is also talented. Nonetheless, I bring a lot of quality experience to the table. Be ready for an upset on April 5. I will be leaving the ring as the winner. I believe that a win over Martinez will change the course of my career. I know this is not an easy fight, but I’ve been on tough situations before and I have come out victorious. I am not looking pass this fight, I have my eyes set on a victory over Martinez.”
Martinez is from my hometown of Sacramento, CA. He already has one fight in 2019 and won that via KO. Xavier has won 4 straight contests via KO/TKO and is aiming for a 5th one this Friday:
“If I go in there and do what I know how to do, things will go my way. I’m going to try to make statement on national television with an early knockout. I know I will have to be smart and aggressive to get it. I’m ready. A win over Moralde will put me a step closer to a title shot—perhaps as soon as early next year. My main goal right now is to become a world champion.”
Floyd Mayweather has also taken personal interest in Martinez as he gave the young fighter plenty of tips heading into this fight. For Martinez, this is his 3rd televised fight and first on Showtime. For Moralde, he’s also been on televised events before. So, neither fighter feels that this stage is too big for them.
Will Moralde pull off the upset as he predict?
I think Moralde will come into this bout and push Martinez the distance. However, I think Martinez is the better fighter. Xavier has shown a lot of progress and is on the cusp of breaking through in his weight class. A win this Friday will be a stepping stone to bigger fights. He has aspirations of winning a title sooner than later. If he can continue at this pace then I could happen by 2020. With that said, I have to go with my hometown fighter to win via UD over Moralde.
Neil Tabanao (17-4, 11 KOs) vs Angelo Leo (16-0, 8 KOs)
- Neil Tabanao (+1200)
- Angelo Leo (-1900)
Angelo Leo comes into this main event contest as the biggest betting favorite of the night according to boxing betting sites. He’s an undefeated fighter on the verge of a title shot and is the featured attraction for ShoBox on Friday. Tabanao is a decent fighter, but is the biggest underdog with online betting sites. Neither fighter offers any betting value. Additionally, Tabanao isn’t worth a flyer as he’s going to be outmatched in this contest.
Tabanao vs Leo Preview
|Boxer||Neil Tabanao||Angelo Leo|
Tabanao has won 4 straight fights after dropping three in a row. He holds a regional title and already has another fight tentatively scheduled next month. Neil is a capable fighter, but hasn’t beaten anyone the caliber of Leo in my opinion. It’s hard to imagine that he will be able to pull off the big upset on Friday night.
In addition to Leo’s boxing skills being a tough challenge, Tabanao will be fighting in the United States for the first time and making his TV debut:
“We know this is our first fight in the States and TV debut, so we are working especially hard to put on a great performance and we thank Mayweather Promotions for this opportunity. Angelo Leo is a good fighter but we have a good strategy. It has always been my dream to represent The Philippines and to be known as a great boxer. This fight will bring me one step closer to my dream.”
For Leo, this will be his second fight in 2019 already. Leo has won 4 of his last 5 bouts via UD including his fight in February against Torres. This will also be Leo’s 5th fight at Sam’s Town. He’s comfortable at this venue and believes this fight will be an exciting one:
“This fight came to me at the perfect time. I’m in great condition coming off my recent fight last month. I think Tabanao is good fighter and a good counter-puncher. He fought good competition and he went the distance with a former world champion, so I know I have a tough fight ahead. He is a dangerous fighter but I have a solid plan. I have a unique style and I think I bring a lot to the table with my speed, angles and body shots. Fans should expect an exciting fight on April 5.”
Leo gives his opponent plenty of credit and isn’t overlooking him despite how bright his future is.
Is Tabanao too dangerous for Leo?
Although Angelo Leo credits his opponent for being “dangerous,” I don’t believe that Tabanao will put Leo in any trouble this fight. However, I don’t see Tabanao getting stopped in this fight either. The most likely outcome for this bout will be a Unanimous Decision win for Leo. He just took Torres the full distance and cruised to a UD win in February. I expect him to do the same on Friday.
ShowBox Undercard Bouts
Friday’s ShowBox event is scheduled to have 5 undercard fights. This portion of the card will begin at 6:30 PM ET and can be seen streamed via Facebook Live on the Mayweather Promotions Facebook page. Unfortunately, not all 5 fights have betting odds listed.
Cameron Krael (15-13-3, 4 KOs) vs Angel Hernandez (15-12-2, 8 KOs)
- Cameron Krael (-1300)
- Angel Hernandez (+700)
On the surface, this fight appears to offer any legit in-ring value. It certainly doesn’t offer any betting value. The two fighters have a combined record of 30-25-5 and 12 KOs. With that said, you have to take a look at Krael’s recent stretch to really see that he has some potential.
At 25 years old, Cameron has gone 7-1-1 in his last 9 bouts. He’s already earned a TKO win in 2019 so far. Additionally, while under the Mayweather Promotions banner, Krael has only suffered one of his 13 pro losses and that came by a very close Split Decision. Krael looks like a new fighter in the two years that he’s been with Mayweather Promotions. He’s defeated some tough fighters in that span including Jose Borrego last September.
Hernandez has just as many wins, but at 27 years old his future isn’t as bright. In fact, he’s pretty much hit his ceiling for a fighter. Angel has gone 2-5-1 over his last 7 fights which dates back over the last two years. He did get a win in 2019, but went 1-3 in 2018.
If we see a focused Krael show up then Cameron will win this fight via UD. However, if Krael shows up lacking focus and is inconsistent in the ring then he could end up losing. With that said, the smart money is on Krael to win and I’m taking him to get the UD over Hernandez on Friday night.
Sanjarbek Rakhmanov (11-1-1, 9 KOs) vs Keith Hunter (9-0, 7 KOs)
- Sanjarbek Rakhmanov (-300)
- Keith Hunter (+240)
Rakhmanov is possibly the oldest fighter on the card. Sanjarbek was a highly decorated amateur with at least 140 fights. He won several regional championships during his amateur career. Rakhmanov turned pro in 2015 and has gone 11-1-1 since then. He was signed to Mayweather Promotions in the summer of 2015 and has been with MP for almost 4 years now. The welterweight prospect lost his first pro fight last August via UD, but bounced back in December to win via UD. This will be his first fight of 2019.
Keith Hunter is undefeated in his young career and three years younger than his opponent. He will have a 4 inch height advantage and a possible reach advantage as well. This will also be Hunter’s first fight in 2019. His last bout came in December and he won via KO.
Despite Hunter being undefeated, he’s stepping up in competition. His previous 9 foes have a combined record of 10-69-5. That’s an abysmal total. Only one of the nine previous opponents had a winning record when Hunter fought him.
With that said, I’m taking Rakhmanov to win this fight. He’s a better professional fighter and has faced tougher competition. His last 9 opponents all had winning records. I don’t see SR getting the stoppage in this contest, so I’m taking Rakhmanov to win via UD. I do see small value with SR as he’s clearly the better fight. Hunter’s record has been inflated by scrubs.
Kevin Newman II (8-1-1, 4 KOs) vs Cesar Lopez Ugarte (8-3, 6 KOs)
- Kevin Newman II (-675)
- Cesar Lopez Ugarte (+450)
When looking at this fight, it’s the true definition of a prelim bout. Neither fighter has shown much in their early pro careers. However, Newman has the bigger upside according to boxing experts. Kevin lost his first pro fight in August 2017, but bounced back to win in September 2018. This is his first fight since then and he’s hoping to kick off a winning streak in 2019.
Newman was out of action for almost a year due to issues with previously scheduled opponents. That’s why he went 13 months without fighting. However, Newman took that as an opportunity to get better. This will be Kevin’s 5th fight at Sam’s Town. He’s currently 4-0 at the venue.
Ugarte appears to be a fighter used as a stepping stone for prospects to climb up the ladder. In his 11 fights, Ugarte has taken on opponents making their debut. He’s gone 3-2 during those contests. Additionally, of the 8 fighters he beat, they have a collective record of 2-13.
I’m actually surprised these odds aren’t higher in favor of Newman. With that said, I’m taking Newman to win via TKO. All 3 of Ugarte’s losses have come via TKO.
Preliminary Bouts without Betting Odds
- Kingdamon Antoine (8-0, 7 KOs) vs Raheem Abdullah
- Maurice Lee (9-1-2, 5 KOs) vs B. Figueroa
Final Thoughts on ShoBox: Leo vs Tabanao
This ShowBox card has some intriguing prospects worth checking out. All three of them are signed to Mayweather Promotions, so you can expect a heavy emphasis on that. Additionally, there are a few prelim fighters that are also signed to MP.
With no MMA fights this weekend, ShowBox can draw more viewers who are looking for some fight sports action. The main card fights all appear set up nicely for the prospects to win. That includes Leo, Martinez and Cortes. I don’t expect any upsets on this card. Additionally, there’s very little betting value available, but I do see some entertainment value especially in a few of the main card fights.
Lastly, I’m most excited about Xavier Martinez fighting this Friday night. He’s from my hometown of Sacramento, California, and I will definitely be rooting him on. The kid has a bright future and he should cruise to a UD victory in his fight.