Storming Area 51 – Betting Odds and Predictions on a Bad Idea

Good Lord, do I love the internet. Sure, it’s becoming increasingly clear that — as a people — we’ve lost our collective minds, but occasionally some new meme comes along that makes it all worth it.

Well, this week, that has to be the “Storm Area 51” memes — simultaneously the greatest outpouring of low-effort creativity/hilarity and the very worst idea imaginable.

To make things even better, you can now officially bet on the Area 51 raid! The (potentially alien) oddsmakers over at Bovada set three different lines for the upcoming death pact/desert party, allowing us all to make some cold hard cash on whether or not the Facebook group members actually ever get to “see them aliens.”

Before I continue, it’s important to note that many of the opinions I plan to share in this article are meant to be in jest. They are not the views of the website owners or any rational human being. I’d hate to encourage behavior that winds up getting people shot in the face. So, now that we have that covered…

What on Earth Is Going On?

All right, so if you aren’t wasting your life away on social media, let me catch you up to date. It starts with a bit of a “chicken or the egg” situation.

The event — Storm Area 51, They won’t be able to stop us all — was created on Facebook.

After a couple of slow days, it spread like wildfire earlier this week after hundreds of hilarious memes hit Twitter and Reddit. Now, it’s a national “to-do.”

The inspiration for the Area 51 raid was apparently born from the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, where the leader of young meatheads and stoners interviewed Bob Lazar — famed UFO whistleblower, who is also the focal point of a new Netflix documentary.

Lazar told a story about working at S-4, a subsect of Area 51, where he witnessed and worked on extraterrestrial spacecraft and propulsion devices.

Apparently, the aliens figured out how to use a fuel source called “Element-115” to create anti-gravity devices, which envelopes the ship in its own gravitational field, allowing it to travel great distances immediately, without any inertia. This enables the UFOs to make drastic changes in direction and hover in the air for prolonged periods of time.

Bob goes on to talk about the lengths the government will go to protect this information and that they’ve been working on back-engineering spaceships of their own.

Considering the fact that Lazar worked there in 1989, I can only imagine what advances they’ve made over the past 30 years. That doesn’t bode well for the September 20 raiders. If the public finds out about alien technology for the first time as a result of 300,000 “Naruto runners” being vaporized, it’ll be pretty bittersweet.

Area 51

Just so we’re on the same page, Area 51 was once a top-secret military installation, thought to be where the Air Force tests new technologies.

Over the last three decades, it’s become urban lore and closely associated with extraterrestrials. It’s where the main characters went to hide in the movie Independence Day. Remember when Judd Hirsch yelled at the President? “You knew then!”

The USAF facility is in Southern Nevada, about 80 miles south of Las Vegas in an area called Groom Lake.

There’s a small town called Rachel nearby, where many of the base’s employees supposedly live, which has become a popular tourist destination in its own right.

I’d assume that’s where the majority of the raiding party will be spending the night of the 19th and where they’ll stage the next day’s activities.

In fact, the small motel in Rachel is already sold out and has designated roughly three acres of surrounding desert for campers on that fateful weekend. At the very least, it should be a hell of a party!

The problem with attempting to raid Area 51 is going to be the layout of the place. In the early ‘90s, the Air Force acquired a large swathe of the surrounding land from the Bureau of Land Management, extending their borders significantly.

Beyond dodging a hail of bullets with Naruto running, the participants are going to need to sprint several miles before they reach anything noteworthy.

Also, it’s worth mentioning that September 20 won’t be the first attempted Area 51 raid of 2019. In January, a man drove right past the gate and failed to stop for any of the security personnel and Nye County Sheriff’s officers that were in pursuit.

The guy made it a full eight miles — without encountering any aliens, by the way — before he finally got out of the car. He was promptly shot and killed, of course.

So, hopefully, a sizable portion of our Naruto runners are marathoners as well, because they’re going to have to book it a good distance!

Will Area 51 Be Raided on September 20, 2019?

  • Yes: +275
  • No: -450

Bovada was brilliant to set actual odds on this thing. That being said, this feels like free money to me. I’ll gladly lay $450 to win $100 on this one.

There’s only one problem.

They don’t specify the conditions of what qualifies as “Area 51 being raided.”

Because I can promise you that 100k people aren’t going to storm the gates, find the underground bunkers, and free any aliens.

But I can also assure you that at least a couple morons are going to attempt to push their luck and step over the boundaries if there isn’t already a massive police presence blocking the security gate. Is it considered a raid if anyone runs past the border and is arrested?

Anyway, this feels like a good spot to discuss the “Extraterrestrial Highway” that will bring you to the front entrance of Area 51. It’s a single lane in either direction. When roughly 50 people showed up recently to dance and take pictures outside of the facility recently, that small amount of traffic alone caused significant congestion.

With the numbers people are talking about showing up, it’s going to look like the original Woodstock — with cars parked on the highway for miles.

While I plan to wager heavily on “No” here, there has never been a bet I’d more happily lose. I absolutely love this entire mess and desperately want people to run onto the land in massive droves. Hopefully, there will be so many that the government won’t be able to arrest them all.

I don’t think they’ll actually open fire if there are enough people watching, so it will be amazing to put them in an extremely uncomfortable situation with sheer numbers.

That being said, if all of the people pledged to show up actually do make there in September, we may be able to overwhelm them regardless of weaponry! You’ve seen Avengers: Infinity War by now, right? Remember when Thanos’ troops first attack Wakanda?

If you just keep “World War Z-ing” it by sprinting straight ahead, regardless of the carnage, you can eventually break through! We just watched this happen to Winterfell in Game of Thrones as well!

However, I’m not sure Americans have what it takes to execute such a selfless plan. For one, we may be far too fat. While this can be somewhat helpful when it comes to absorbing more bullets and covering the raiders behind us, it’s a serious setback when it comes to speed and elusiveness.

Then, there’s the issue of our collective mindset. My fellow countrymen and women don’t strike me as particularly willing to sacrifice themselves for the greater good.

I see a lot of standing around waiting for someone else to go first, which pretty much works counter to our Thanos/White Walker/World War Z attack strategy.

Give me a big fat “No” for $900 to win $200.

Will President Trump Tweet a Warning Not to Raid Area 51 Before September 20?

  • Yes: +275
  • No: -450

Now, this is a fascinating bet. Is it possible that this Area 51 meme is going to keep enough momentum to be acknowledged by Trump in a couple of months?

To be honest, I’m kind of surprised he hasn’t tweeted about it already. It’s hard to imagine this thing continuing to gain steam at a rate that pushes the President to address it if this week wasn’t enough to inspire him.

That being said, I can’t help but feel the price is right on “Yes.” If there’s one thing President Trump truly excels at, it’s knowing how to generate attention.

If people are still talking about Area 51 in September, it’d be foolish of him not to address the hype, even if it’s nothing more than a vague warning telling people that they’ll absolutely be jailed or shot if they try anything crazy on an active military base.

He may even send out a tweet of encouragement to the raiders! When this topic came up, I went crazy and started watching tons of documentaries about Area 51; they don’t even tell Presidents what’s going on with aliens and any advanced technology we’ve learned from them.

It’s apparently not considered “need to know” for them because they’re essentially temporary employees.

Maybe Trump can send everyone some troops and body armor to make the Area 51 raid more of a success.

Whatever the case, I’m a believer in Trump eventually tweeting about this whole ordeal. If Guy Fieri, Elon Musk, and Bud Light are all talking about it, I see no reason why the President wouldn’t.

Give me a “Yes” at $100 to win $275.

How Many People Will RSVP “Going” to the Event “Storm Area 51, They Can’t Stop All of Us” on Facebook?

  • Over 1.51 Million: -400
  • Under 1.51 Million: +250

This is another bet that feels like a foregone conclusion. Bovada is going to get absolutely washed on these Area 51 wagers!

As of this morning, the Facebook group already had 1.2 million members, with something around 800k people RSVPing that they’re going. It’s not like they actually have to show up to win the bet.

Unfortunately, the oddsmakers seem to be anticipating the over as well, which is why the line is set at -400.

While I feel relatively confident that the Area 51 raid will get at least 1.51 million “going” RSVPs, I’m not sure I’m willing to take the risk at that price. There’s still a decent chance that this thing starts losing steam next week, causing the bet to fall short.

I’m staying away from this one.

How Many Maniacs Will Die at Area 51 on September 20, 2019?

All right, Bovada wasn’t crazy enough to create this market, so I’m doing it myself!

Let’s say a large crowd actually manages to reach the Area 51 gates and the mob mentality takes over, whipping them into a frenzy.

And after some repeated warnings, they decide to go through with the original plan to “see them aliens.”

The maniacs begin to Naruto sprint towards the interior of the base in search for ET; how many people will ultimately die?

Well, since I don’t know how many people will be attending, I’ll have to estimate. Assuming that far fewer people than have RSVP’d will be making that trek to the desert — on Life is Beautiful festival weekend, no less — I’m going to base the following totals line on a relatively meager crowd gathering outside the gates.

I suspect the guards will only feel comfortable opening fire if the perpetrators are a fairly small minority.

  • Over 25.5 Deaths: +475
  • Under 25.5 Deaths: -550

Twenty-five deaths would be a massive ordeal if you think about it. It doesn’t seem like much when you’re picturing waves of Naruto runners piling up under a hail of machinegun fire like World War 1, but in real life, it’d be an absolute tragedy.

That’s why I feel comfortable making the “under” the favorite on this one.

See You in September!

No matter what takes place in September, the “Storm Area 51” phenomenon will go down as a high point in internet history.

Well, that’s not entirely true; I suppose if this thing ends in a horrific massacre, looking back at the memes won’t be nearly as enjoyable.

But for the time being, this has been one of the funniest weeks online since Antoine Dodson said, “Hide yo kids, hide yo wife.”

The only thing that could make it any better is being rewarded financially for following the whole ordeal. Fortunately, that’s precisely the opportunity we’re being given, thanks to the oddsmakers over at Bovada.

As absurd as it may seem on the surface, there’s some legitimate value to be found in the current offerings. I can’t wait to lay some serious action betting on the Area 51 raid and Trump’s tweets!

For better or for worse, I’ll see you all in the desert this fall! I’ll be the guy running a few steps behind the rest of the pack.

Gary Stone: