The Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Award is one of the most prestigious trophies in sports. While every pro football player will tell you that his ultimate goal is to win at least one Lombardi Trophy over the course of their career, you know that winning a Super Bowl MVP can’t be too far behind on their bucket lists. If you win Super Bowl MVP, you’re getting the best of both worlds. You’re a champion, and you’re the person that has been deemed most responsible for your team’s triumph in the biggest sporting event of the year.
As you may expect, quarterbacks have absolutely dominated Super Bowl MVP over the years. 30 of the 54 Super Bowl MVPs to this point have been QBs. Eight of the last 11 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. Julian Edelman, Von Miller, and Malcolm Smith have been the only exceptions over the past decade.
When it comes to the MVP of Super Bowl 55, the quarterbacks are heavily favored. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to become the first player since Terry Bradshaw to win the award in consecutive years. Tom Brady, meanwhile, will be looking to extend his record of Super Bowl MVPs to five. Mahomes is a -110 favorite to win the award with the Chiefs favored to win the game itself. Brady has the next-best odds of any player at +225, per the online sportsbook BetOnline.
What are the best bets to win Super Bowl 55 MVP?
Patrick Mahomes (-110)
Duh. I’m not going out on a limb by saying that the smart money is on Mahomes to win his second straight SB MVP. Mahomes didn’t play a particularly good game in Super Bowl 54 against the 49ers, especially by his lofty standards. He actually threw a pair of interceptions in that game, while he was also sacked four times.
Unbelievably, it was the only game in the entire season in which Mahomes threw multiple INTs. However, he also accounted for three of the Chiefs’ touchdowns in their 31-20 triumph over San Francisco. QBs win MVPs, so Mahomes won the award in the end.
The Kansas City Chiefs do have some capable running backs in the mix, but we know their chances of winning hinge almost entirely on the right shoulder of their talented young QB. Mahomes threw the ball 42 times in Super Bowl 54, and we can safely expect a heavy dosage of KC’s vaunted passing attack in this one.
"I don't know if we've ever seen a guy this complete as a player ever." — @kurt13warner on Patrick Mahomes on @gmfb
If this game looks anything like the last meeting between the Chiefs and Buccaneers, Mahomes will win MVP in a landslide. The Chiefs wound up winning the game by just three points, but Mahomes had one of the most prolific outings of his career. Back in November, the Texas Tech product racked up a whopping 462 yards passing with three touchdown passes—all to Tyreek Hill—in KC’s 27-24 victory.
The Buccaneers’ defense is better than they looked that day, but no team has shown a consistent ability to shut this Chiefs offense down. If you like the Chiefs to lift the Lombardi again on Sunday night, you might as well parlay that with a wager on Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP.
Tom Brady (+225)
If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pull the upset, Tom Brady is the clear choice to win Super Bowl MVP. Assuming he doesn’t commit multiple turnovers or look incredibly washed like Peyton Manning did in Super Bowl 50, Brady looks awfully appealing at the current +225 odds.
Brady has six Super Bowl wins on his resume, and he has earned MVP honors another four times. The only Super Bowls the Patriots won in which Brady wasn’t named MVP were Super Bowls 36 (Deion Branch) and 53 (Julian Edelman).
If you’re counting, Brady has won MVP in 44.4% of the Super Bowls in which he has appeared. New England did lose the game another three times during his 20-year tenure in Foxborough.
Brady has a better arsenal of weapons now than he ever did with the Patriots. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and Cameron Brate make Brady’s job pretty easy. As long as the offensive line can keep him upright, there’s no reason to believe Brady won’t be able to do damage on a fairly underwhelming Kansas City defense.
Brady was vastly overshadowed by Mahomes in their most recent meeting, but he did put up some solid numbers of his own. Brady helped rally the Bucs from an early deficit and quietly finished the game with 345 yards and three touchdowns of his own. He has been surgical through Tampa Bay’s first three playoff games, with seven touchdowns and nearly 900 yards through the air.
The argument for Brady is a simple one. If you think the Bucs pull off the stunner, take Brady to win MVP at the advantageous +225 odds.
Travis Kelce (+1000)
Quarterbacks may win Super Bowl MVP in most years, but they haven’t had a total monopoly over the award. Mahomes is certainly likely to win it if the Chiefs put a big number on the scoreboard in a victory, but Travis Kelce is a good bet to earn some love, too. If the voters don’t feel like giving Mahomes the trophy twice in a row, Kelce could be the beneficiary if he has a big game of his own.
Kelce has been Mahomes’ top target over the past couple of years. This past season, the former Cincinnati standout set a single-season record for most receiving yards by a tight end. Given all of the quality pass-catching tight ends we have seen over the years, that is no small accomplishment. Kelce caught a career-high 105 passes (145 targets) for 1,416 yards with 11 touchdowns.
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Hill had a huge game against the Bucs back in November, but Kelce is a safer bet to produce on a week-to-week basis. If the Buccaneers focus on trying to eliminate Hill from beating them deep, you can bet Mahomes will instead take what he can get with Kelce over the middle of the field. Tampa Bay has a very talented front-seven, but Kelce is a tough cover for any defense.
Voter fatigue is real, which is why Mahomes isn’t a lock to win MVP in a Chiefs victory. If Kelce tops 100 yards with multiple scores, for example, he could very well win the award himself. Amazingly, a tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP. Kelce may finish his career as the best player to have ever played the position, so he could certainly become the first to win an SB MVP. You can do a lot worse than taking a flier on Kelce at the generous +1000 odds.
Mike Evans (+4000)
Mike Evans has been one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL during his entire career. He has largely flown under the radar, however, because the Bucs haven’t done a whole lot of winning since he was drafted. This is Evans’ first career playoff run, so you can bet he’ll make the most of his first opportunity to shine on the Super Bowl stage.
Few would argue with you if you made the claim that Evans is the Buccaneers’ best offensive weapon. However, three of his teammates have more favorable odds to win Super Bowl MVP. Brady is the favorite on the Tampa side, followed by Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin at +3300 apiece. Fournette and Godwin may finish the game with more touches than Evans, but Evans’ big-play ability puts him on our radar.
At 6’5″ and 231 pounds, Evans is essentially the same size as Kelce, but he plays wide receiver. Evans has crossed the 1,000-yard threshold in each of his first seven pro seasons, which is an impressive accomplishment given the Bucs’ lack of quarterback stability during most of his tenure. Evans hauled in 70 passes for 1,006 yards with 13 scores in his first season with Brady throwing him the football.
Evans is admittedly boom-or-bust.
He caught six passes for 119 yards in the Wild Card Round against Washington, but in the last two playoff games combined he has just four catches for 54 yards. He has scored in each of the last two games, but he’s more of a deep threat than an over-the-middle type of target like Godwin that figures to see higher volume.
Still, I wouldn’t overlook the impact Evans is capable of having in this game. If he breaks off one or two huge plays, he could easily take home Super Bowl MVP honors. You’re paying for his lack of consistency with the long +4000 odds, but the potential payday is absolutely massive.
Tyreek Hill (+1200)
You don’t need to remind the Bucs of the type of impact Tyreek Hill is capable of having on a game. The Chiefs’ speedster has had plenty of memorable moments over the course of his NFL career to this point, but his last trip to Raymond James Stadium has to be the highlight. Hill caught 13 of 15 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns in KC’s 27-24 win over the Bucs back in November. Hill had topped the 200-yard mark before the end of the first quarter.
While he ultimately fell short of setting the single-game record for receiving yards, it was still one of the most prolific performances we have ever seen from a pass-catcher at this level. Hill finished the season with 87 catches for 1,276 yards and a team-leading 15 touchdowns. He may not see as much volume as Kelce does, but he makes up for that with his innate ability to break off huge gains any time he touches the ball.
Hill caught nine passes for 106 yards in last year’s Super Bowl against San Francisco. Mahomes won MVP, but Hill had an argument. He may have even won it if he had found his way into the end zone at some point. Hill effectively saved the game for Kansas City with the team trailing 20-10 midway through the fourth quarter.
With the Chiefs facing a potential punt, Hill came down with a 44-yard bomb on third-and-15 to keep hope alive. The Chiefs would go on to score 21 unanswered points after the play, which clearly swung the momentum in their favor.
If Hill produces a similar magical moment on Sunday, who’s to say he can’t win MVP? Wide receivers have won Super Bowl MVP seven times in the past, which ties them with running backs for the second-most in the history of the game. Hill is as likely as anyone not named Mahomes to win it from the Kansas City side, so the +1200 odds stand out quite a bit.
For more Super Bowl 55 bets, feel free to check out the rest of our Super Bowl betting blogs. We’re covering everything you could possibly hope to see. You’ll find insight on moneylines, over/unders, and all kinds of prop bets, including special teams wagers, commercials, and more. Good luck!
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...
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