Super Bowl Betting: Top Value Bets to Target Heading into Week 6
The NFL is a constantly changing beast. Before the season even started the New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers were would-be title sleepers. Now the two teams have one win between them through the first five weeks of the season.
Odell Beckham Jr. is done for the year, the Giants are winless and there is even chatter about a potential Eli Manning trade.
The G-Men did not live up to expectations and the 1-4 Chargers probably won’t by season’s end, either. Needless to say, the once-promising value both teams held has come and gone and those who backed them have to lick their wounds and try again.
Those aren’t the only teams to disappoint in the early going, of course. The New England Patriots don’t necessarily look like locks to win it all at the moment, while the Dallas Cowboys are hurting after a 2-3 start.
Things simply haven’t gone quite as expected for the majority of the league and NFL bettors – both for weekly and Super Bowl betting – find themselves trying to adapt.
Super Bowl 52 Value Bets
With all of that disappointment comes more opportunity for teams we otherwise wouldn’t bet on to provide serious value, however.
We took a look at the top Super Bowl 52 value bets back in September and were shocked to see some solid title contenders handing out some extremely playable odds.
Heading into week six, the odds for this year’s Super Bowl understandably changed even more. Some of those same teams offer killer value, while some lived up to our praise and now carry stronger odds to go the distance.
With all the changes, we take another look at the NFL landscape with hopes of pointing out the best overall Super Bowl value bets.
Atlanta Falcons (+1200)
I’m seeing a lot of hate against the Falcons, who are 3-1 and coming off of their bye week. Granted, Atlanta hasn’t been perfect, but for a team that’s supposed to be lost in a Super Bowl hangover, they’re adjusting quite well.
The Falcons have a solid record and they’re in the running for the NFC South division. They still boast a healthy stable of running backs, an explosive passing attack and an aggressive defense. On paper, they can win any game and absolutely can get back to the Super Bowl and make up for the 28-3 blown lead of a year ago.
There is a crushing mental aspect that should be holding most bettors back here, but fundamentally and from a talent perspective, this is a Super Bowl contender. That’s why it’s awfully hard to quit the Falcons at +1200 at Bovada.
Atlanta’s lone loss came against a surprisingly pesky Bills team and they’ve dispatched the Lions and Packers. They could feasibly stumble from here, but these odds are increasingly hard to pass up for a team that has everything a title winner needs.
Dallas Cowboys (+2000)
Ditto for Dallas, who is without a doubt one of the top Super Bowl value bets now that they’ve slid into a 2-3 hole. Perhaps this slow start will ruin the Cowboys, or maybe an entitled team needs this wake-up call to turn back into the elite force they were in 2016.
There is still some doubt surrounding this team. The defense isn’t very reliable and Ezekiel Elliott could still miss six games with a looming suspension.
I’m not sure either of these things is a death sentence, though. Dallas plays better with a healthy Sean Lee on the roster and if/when Zeke gets back, they’ll again be one of the most talented teams in the league.
The reality is this; the Cowboys are wounded, but in a fairly wide open division, they’re far from dead. The Giants are already out of the NFC East race, so from here on out Dallas just needs to hold serve and win their showdowns with the Redskins and Eagles.
They might not get the job done in those games, but if they get back to the team we saw in 2016, their +2000 odds will be foolish to bypass completely.
Carolina Panthers (+2200)
Even worse than ignoring the ‘Boys is not respecting the Panthers. Cam Newton seems to be en route to his old MVP form and this Panthers team as a whole is closely resembling the one that went 15-1 and got to the Super Bowl two seasons ago.
Rookie running back Christian McCaffrey has given the offense a dynamic it’s really never had, while Devin Funchess is finally stepping up into a more pronounced role. Add in Kelvin Benjamin and (eventually) a healthy Greg Olsen, and this version of the Panthers may be the best Cam has ever had.
The beauty is the Panthers are 4-1 despite some tough games – one in which came on the road against the defending champion Pats. Carolina’s lone loss came against a desperate Saints team at a time where Newton simply wasn’t the guy we’re accustomed to seeing.
That’s changed in just the past two weeks and if Newton stays healthy and plays like this, Carolina is absolutely a team to fear. Add in a balanced defense that can border on elite at times, and the Panthers are a flat out robbery at +2200 right now.
Oakland Raiders (+5000)
I love the value we’re getting with the Oakland Raiders. The top NFL betting sites have soured greatly on the preseason darlings, largely due to Derek Carr’s back injury and a sluggish 2-3 start.
Oakland has run into some brutal matchups the past three weeks, but they still have the good to dig themselves out of this early hole. That, and Carr is fully expected to return in week six:
Jack Del Rio reaffirmed today that he anticipates Derek Carr (back) will play Sunday vs. LA Chargers.
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) October 9, 2017
With a healthy Carr back under center, there’s optimism the Raiders can get their offensive swagger back. That’s certainly a viable belief with this week’s contest coming against a shaky Chargers team that won for the first time last week.
Oakland is in a dicey spot, to be sure. The Kansas City Chiefs have yet to lose and the Denver Broncos look like a threat for the division crown, as well. However, it was the Raiders that everyone was high on before the season began and their emotional 12-4 run of a year ago shouldn’t be forgotten so quickly.
Marshawn Lynch’s debut with his hometown team hasn’t gone as planned, but we’re just a third of the way into the year. If Carr can get the Raiders back on track this week and Oakland gets hot, he and Beast Mode could still pace one of the most talented teams in the league.
If that’s even close to Oakland’s reality, they’re an insane steal at +5000.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7500)
Countless teams offer interesting value right now, but if things end up breaking just right, does anyone even touch Jacksonville?
Not only do the Jaguars have an elite running back in rookie phenom Leonard Fournette, but they have a game-changing defense that can bottle up the run. The Jags can still be had through the air a bit, but they actually reversed course on that narrative last week by intercepting Ben Roethlisberger five times and returning two of those picks for scores.
Jacksonville is only 3-2, but they’re finding success despite the presence of Blake Bortles. Their defense and running game are good enough to keep them in just about any game, while their ho-hum division is about as wide open as it gets.
Just getting into the playoffs is a win for this team, and once in their style of play fits perfectly into a playoff setting. Quarterback is the only real red flag here, but if the Jags double down and swing a big trade to upgrade over Bortles, they just might end up being the value bet to end all value bets.
That doesn’t mean the Patriots, Chiefs or Packers (all below +1000 at Bovada) are bad bets. However, if we’re looking for elite value and realistic bets that are playable, we may want to consider the five we touched on here.