With Super Bowl 54 quickly approaching, casinos and NFL betting sites expect a rush of last minute wagers to flood their sportsbooks. If you are one of those NFL gamblers patiently waiting to bet on the “big game” then your patience has already paid off.
The following Super Bowl betting trends could have a major impact on your SB 54 wager. In fact, these trends might just be the difference between a winning Super Bowl wager and a losing one.
Favorites vs Underdogs
Heading into Super Bowl weekend, the Kansas City Chiefs are still the betting favorites and have been since the opening lines were released.
In the previous 53 Super Bowls, the Favorites have gone 33-19 SU and 24-25-3 ATS. Some sports betting sites listed the 1982 SB between the 49ers and Bengals as a pick spread. Although, many outlets claim that a Pick line has never happened. In reality, Super Bowl 54 should be a Pick game as these are evenly matched teams.
Surprisingly, the Underdogs have been on a hot streak. In the last 18 Super Bowls, the Underdogs have gone 13-5 ATS. It gets even more impressive for the Underdogs as they’ve gone 9-3 ATS in the last 12 Super Bowls with only the Patriots covering twice (2017, 2019) and the Packers in 2011.
For SB 54, the San Francisco 49ers are a one point underdog, which means that they would have to win the game outright to cover the spread. If they lose by one point then it would be a Push.
On the season, the 49ers have gone 5-0 ATS as an Underdog. San Francisco’s QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 9-2 ATS and 8-3 SU in games where his team is the Underdog.
Although the Underdogs have done well in recent Super Bowl history, the Chiefs are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as the favorite. They’re also 14-4 SU in their last 18 games against the NFC West. Unfortunately, the 49ers are just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS as an Underdog in the Playoffs.
ATS Betting Trends
The higher seeded team heading into the Super Bowl has gone 2-13-2 in the last 17 Super Bowls. This year, the 49ers were the higher seed as they were ranked #1 in the NFC Conference while the Chiefs were ranked #3 in the AFC Conference.
NFC is 27-23-3 ATS in Super Bowl history, but it’s the AFC that has gone 4-2 ATS in the last six years. Will the Chiefs make is 5-2 ATS? They certainly have a shot as Kansas City has done really well ATS this year:
KC is 8-0 ATS in their last eight overall games including the Playoffs.
The Chiefs have gone 13-5 ATS this year.
Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid is 21-8 ATS when having an extra week to prepare including going 2-0 ATS this year.
Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 21-11-2 ATS when the spread is between +3 and -3 points.
San Francisco has had success against the spread as well over the last year:
The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in last eight overall games.
SF is 6-1 ATS in last seven non-conference matchups.
The 49ers are 3-1 ATS vs the AFC West.
SF is 11-6-1 ATS under Kyle Shanahan when the spread is between +3 and -3 points including going 5-0 ATS this year.
With Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, the 49ers are 9-2 ATS as an Underdog.
In Super Bowl History, the 49ers have gone 4-2 ATS in their six Super Bowl games while the Chiefs have gone 1-1 ATS in their two SB games.
Over/Unders refer to the point totals for a game. In the 53 previous Super Bowl games, only 35 of them have had betting lines for Over/Unders.
In those 35 Super Bowls, the Over has gone 21-13-1, which is a rate of 62% of the time. Last year’s Super Bowl was a bit of an anomaly, as the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams set records for the lowest points scored in a Super Bowl matchup (16) and the lowest points scored by a team (3).
Not including SB 53, the previous six Super Bowls saw the Over go 5-1. In the 35 Super Bowl games where the Totals have been tracked, the average score has been 50.4 ppg.
Since 2000, when the spread has been listed between +3 and -3 points, the Over has gone 5-2.
The Over/Under for Super Bowl 54 has seen some movement since Championship Suunday. It opened at 51 total points, shot up to 52.5 points, and then continued to climb up to 54.5 points. However, within the last day or so, the O/U has come down a half point to a current Over/Under of 54 total points.
For Kansas City, the Over has gone 5-1 in their last six games against the NFC. It’s also hit in 13 of their last 20 games played on a Sunday. With Patrick Mahomes at the helm, the Over has gone 10-2 when the Chiefs played against teams that had double digit wins.
The 49ers have seen the Over go 8-4 in their last 12 overall games.
These two squads finished in the Top 5 for highest scoring teams in the NFL during the regular season. The 49ers averaged 29.9 ppg and the Chiefs finished at 28.2 ppg. That’s a combined total of 58.1 ppg.
In the Playoffs, their average points per game went up significantly. In two games each, the 49ers averaged 32 ppg and the Chiefs averaged 43 ppg. That’s a combined total of 75 total points per game.
The Race to 30 Points
Both teams come in just under 30 points averaged per game during the regular season. However, over the last 40 Super Bowls, the team to score over 30 points has gone 22-2 SU and 21-3 ATS.
Online betting sites have the 49ers listed at an O/U of 26.5 points and the Chiefs listed with an O/U of 27.5 ppg. In my Super Bowl 54 preview and prediction article, I have the Chiefs winning by a score of 34 to 31, which would continue the betting trend of the winning team scoring 30 points or more.
The Second Quarter Will Be Key
Currently, online betting sites have the Chiefs as a ½ point favorite for the 2nd quarter of the game. This is an intriguing option because the Chiefs outscored their opponents in the 2nd quarter of games this season by 142 points, which led the league. The 49ers were second at plus 84.
In the Playoffs, the Chiefs outscored their two opponents (Titans and Texans) by a score of 42 to 10. That’s a plus score of 32 points. The 49ers outscored their opponents (Vikings and Packers) 27 to 3, which is a plus score of 24 points.
The team that scores more points in the 2nd quarter of the Super Bowl could very well go on to win the game.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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