The 2019 ATP Wimbledon Betting Preview: Novak vs The Field

On Monday, July 1st, the tennis universe will gather around to witness the sport’s oldest and most prestigious event—Wimbledon. Located at the All England Club in Wimbledon, London, this year’s spectacle marks the 133rd edition of tennis’ premiere tournament.

Wimbledon is the third of four Grand Slam tournaments held each year. However, no other tournament matches the aura and atmosphere of the All England Club. The 2018 men’s champion Novak Djokovic is returning to defend his title against a field of competitors that features the likes of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Tennis betting sites have pegged Djokovic as the overwhelming odds-on favorite to win the Grand Slam.

In addition to examining these betting odds, there are numerous prop bets to explore for the men’s side of the tournament. I will dig into the women’s Wimbledon betting odds in a separate article.

What to Watch for at Wimbledon

With all of the anticipation heading into the 2019 Wimbledon tournament, the following tennis storylines are worth keeping a close eye on:

  • Will the new tie breaker rule come into play?
  • Who will be in the Draw with Roger Federer?
  • Can Novak Djokovic sweep through the field?
  • Will we get a first-time Wimbledon winner?

Previous ATP Wimbledon Winners

Prior to 1968, only amateurs were allowed to play in Wimbledon. William Renshaw holds the mark for the most wins of the Amateur Era with seven. Pete Sampras tied that record by winning his seventh Wimbledon in 2000 during the Open Era.

Not only did Roger Federer tie both Sampras and Renshaw, but he surpassed them after winning his eighth Wimbledon in 2017. Federer will return to the All England Club with the hopes of extending his record to nine wins. The following is a list of the previous winners dating back to 1997:

  • Pete Sampras in 1997-2000
  • Goran Ivanisevic in 2001
  • Lleyton Hewitt in 2002
  • Roger Federer in 2003-2007, 2009, 2012, 2017
  • Rafael Nadal in 2008, 2010
  • Novak Djokovic in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018
  • Andy Murray in 2013, 2016

Andy Murray will not be competing in the Gentlemen’s Singles this year after briefly retiring from the sport due to injuries. Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer will be the only previous winners to enter this year’s singles tournament.

WTA Wimbledon Betting Odds

The following Wimbledon betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Novak Djokovic (+150)
  • Roger Federer (+325)
  • Rafael Nadal (+500)
  • Alexander Zverev (+1000)
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1600)
  • Felix Auger Aliassime (+2500)
  • Marin Cilic (+2500)
  • Milos Raonic (+2500)
  • Dominic Thiem (+3300)
  • Kevin Anderson(+3300)
  • Nick Kyrgios (+3300)
  • Denis Shapovalov (+4000)
  • Grigor Dimitrov (+4000)
  • Matteo Berrettini (+4000)
  • Borna Coric (+5000)
  • Karen Khachanov (+5000)
  • Kei Nishikori (+5000)
  • Kyle Edmund (+5000)
  • David Goffin (+6600)
  • Hyeon Chung (+6600)
  • John Isner (+6600)
  • Stan Wawrinka (+6600)
  • Jack Sock (+8000)
  • Tomas Berdych(+8000)
  • Alex de Minaur (+10000)
  • Gael Monfils (+10000)

Wimbledon Betting Favorites

According to most Wimbledon betting sites, the following male tennis stars are considered the odds on favorites to win at the All England Club:

Tennis Player Wins Finals SF QF Appearances
Novak Djokovic 4 5 8 10 14
Roger Federer 8 3 12 16 20
Rafael Nadal 2 5 6 6 13

Novak Djokovic (+150)

2019 has been a strong year so far for Djokovic. He won the Australian Open and the Madrid Masters while also making it to the finals of the Rome Masters where he lost to Nadal. At the French Open, Djokovic lost in the semifinals to Dominic Thiem. But he still has an impressive 12-1 record in Grand Slams this year. And, now, Novak is returning to a surface where he’s performed well at over his career.

On grass, Novak has gone 88-18 in his career and has won five tournaments. Four of those grass tournament wins came at Wimbledon, with the fifth one being at Eastbourne in 2017. As mentioned above, Djokovic is the reigning Wimbledon champion with an overall record of 65-10 at the All England Club.

Djokovic has made it to four Wimbledon finals in the last six years and has won three of them. In 2017, when still struggling with health issues, Novak Djokovic was only able to muster up a quarterfinals appearance. It’s hard to imagine that anyone could trip him up before the semifinals where it’s believed he could face Rafael Nadal provided both men go unscathed through the field.

Will the #1 ranked men’s tennis player in the world capture his second straight Wimbledon and fifth overall?

Roger Federer (+325)

If there’s anyone that could stand in Djokovic’s way, it’s Roger Federer. Although he’s ranked third in the world, Wimbledon officials have seeded him second overall in the tournament, which means he wouldn’t face Novak until the finals. That’s if he can avoid the upset like what happened last year when he was knocked out in the quarterfinals by Kevin Anderson.

Federer holds the all-time mark for most Wimbledon tournament wins with eight. He last held up the championship trophy in 2017 and looks to make a run at another one. Federer also has 11 finals appearances, and there’s a solid chance he could make his 12 finals if he can play strong throughout the opening rounds.

Roger Federer has been dominant on grass in his career with a record of 181-26. In addition to his eight Wimbledon wins, he also has 11 other grass tournament victories with 10 of those coming at Halle, which is one of two “unofficial” lead-in tournaments for Wimbledon. Federer just captured his tenth Halle victory by defeating David Goffin in the finals last Sunday.

The win at Halle was Federer’s third tournament victory this season, as he’s also won at Dubai and the Miami Masters. Federer lost in the finals at Indian Wells and was defeated in the semifinals of the French Open by Rafael Nadal.

At age 37, turning 38 in August, Federer is still playing at a very high level, but does he have a realistic shot at upsetting Djokovic at Wimbledon?

Rafael Nadal (+500)

Of the sport’s Big 3, Nadal has had the least amount of success on grass. But that’s not a negative thing as he still has two Wimbledon tournament wins in his career. He also has three more finals appearances. Last year, Nadal made it all the way to the semifinals where he eventually lost to Djokovic. There’s a strong chance that these two tennis superstars will meet again in the semifinals of this year’s tournament as well. Will Rafael Nadal be able to get his revenge?

We all know Nadal’s dominance on clay as he’s won 12 French Open titles including this year’s tournament. However, he hasn’t been as dominant on grass as Djokovic and Federer have. Rafael has a record of 66-19 on grass and just four tournament wins. His last grass tournament victory came at Stuttgart in 2015.

Nadal hasn’t made it to the finals of Wimbledon since 2011. His 81% winning percentage at Wimbledon is the lowest of all four Grand Slams. Additionally, he’s just 48-11 at the All England Club, which is a far cry from his 93-2 record at the French Open.

Nadal might be the #2 ranked men’s tennis player in the world, but it’s going to take a grass court miracle to upset Djokovic or Federer at Wimbledon this year.

The Best Wimbledon Betting Value

The following male tennis players offer betting value for this Grand Slam due to their current betting odds, their past success at Wimbledon, and their 2019 season so far. However, let’s keep in mind that the chances of anyone outside of the Big 3 winning are very low.

Tennis Player Wins Finals SF QF Appearances
Stefanos Tsitsipas 0 0 0 0 2
Kevin Anderson 0 1 1 1 10

Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1600)

Stefanos comes into Wimbledon ranked sixth in the world and has been playing well this season. He’s already captured two tournament victories (Marseille and Estoril) and has two more finals appearances at the Madrid Masters and Dubai. Tsitsipas lost to Federer in Dubai and Djokovic at the Madrid Masters. He also made it to the semifinals of the French Open and the Rome Masters where he lost to Nadal at both events. As you can see, the 20-year-old rising star is playing well enough to get to the finals, but is still just one rung lower on the ladder than the Big 3 of tennis.

With that said, Stefanos has only played in two Wimbledon tournaments. Last year, he made it to the fourth round before losing to John Isner who went on to the semifinals. Tsitsipas is 3-2 at the All England Club and has an 8-6 career record on grass.

Each year, we get a breakthrough star at Wimbledon or an unexpected run by someone other than the Big 3. Last year it was Kevin Anderson, this year could be Stefanos’ turn for a breakthrough.

Kevin Anderson (+3300)

As mentioned, Kevin Anderson was the surprise player at Wimbledon last year. He upset Roger Federer in the quarterfinals, then defeated John Isner in the semifinals, before losing to Djokovic in the finals. That was Anderson’s best run at Wimbledon as he had never made it past the fourth round prior to last year. Overall, Kevin has an 18-10 record at Wimbledon. For his career, Anderson is 37-26 on grass.

2019 has been a mixed bag for Anderson so far. He won in Pune, but failed to make it beyond the quarterfinals of any other event. He skipped the French Open due to an injury and is looking to recapture the magic from last year as he invaded the All England Club.

Will Anderson be able to build off his Wimbledon success from last year?

The Top Longshot to Win at Wimbledon

Stan Wawrinka at +6600 odds is probably the only longshot even worth mentioning. He’s a three-time Grand Slam winner who’s currently ranked 19th in the world. His highest rank ever was third overall and that was back in 2014, when he won the Australian Open. Wawrinka would go on to win the French Open in 2015 and the US Open in 2016. He’s been unable to win a Wimbledon or even make it to the semifinals.

Once we get past Nadal in the Wimbledon seeding, there’s really nobody that can win this tournament unless the Big 3 all pull out due to injuries. With that said, Wawrinka has big match experience and knows how to deal with the pressure of a Grand Slam final. Although he’s better on hard courts and clay surfaces, Wawrinka could pull off a miracle or two in England this month.

Djokovic vs Federer vs Nadal at Wimbledon

The following is a breakdown of the Big 3’s records against each other in head-to-head battles at Wimbledon:

Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer

For their careers, Djokovic holds a 25-22 record over Federer and has won the last four meetings between the two. At Wimbledon, Djokovic also has the edge with a 2-1 record. Novak defeated Federer in the 2014 and 2015 finals, while Federer defeated Djokovic in the 2012 semifinals.

  • Wimbledon H2H: Djokovic 2 – Federer 1

Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal

I’ve said it once, and I will say it again, I believe that Djokovic vs Nadal is the greatest rivalry in the history of men’s tennis. With that said, Novak does have the edge in all-time head-to-head wins with a record of 28 to 26. They’ve played against each other 15 times in Grand Slam tournaments, including eight finals. Nadal has the 9-6 advantage in Grand Slam meetings.

At Wimbledon, the two superstars have only met each other on three occasions and Novak holds a 2-1 edge over Nadal. Their first encounter at Wimbledon was the 2007 semifinals, and Nadal won that matchup. Since then, Djokovic has defeated Nadal in the 2011 finals and last year in the semifinals.

  • Wimbledon H2H: Djokovic 2 – Nadal 1

Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal

Before Djokovic became a star in the sport, the ATP was a playground for Nadal and Federer. Their epic battles took the sport to new highs and captivated a new generation of tennis fans. With that said, Nadal has a commanding lead in this rivalry as he’s gone 24-15 against Federer. He’s also dominated Roger in Grand Slam meetings as he’s gone 10-3. If you remove the French Open from this equation, then Nadal only has a 4-3 advantage.

At Wimbledon, Federer does have the head to head advantage with 2 wins to 1. They played against each other in three straight tournaments with Federer defeating Nadal in the 2006 and 2007 finals. Nadal got his revenge by defeating Federer in the 2008 finals. They have not played against each other in Wimbledon since 2008.

  • Wimbledon H2H: Federer 2 – Nadal 1

2019 Men’s Wimbledon Prop Bets

If picking an outright winner isn’t your thing, then there are numerous Wimbledon prop bets to explore. The following prop bets are also courtesy of BetOnline:

Will Djokovic Reach the Final?

  • Yes (-140)
  • No (+110)

I believe Novak Djokovic will reach the finals of Wimbledon for the sixth time in his career. He’s the best player in the world and the defending champion. He will most likely face Nadal in the semifinals of his side of the Draw and, as mentioned above, Novak holds the advantage in their head-to-head meetings at the All England Club.

Not only do I think that Djokovic will make the finals, I also believe he will win Wimbledon for the fifth time in his career.

Tennis Bet: Yes, Djokovic will make the finals (-140)

Will Federer Reach the Final?

  • Yes (+165)
  • No (-205)

This one is a little tougher than Djokovic, but I do feel that it offers solid betting value. Based on his expected Draw, Federer won’t have to play any legitimate grass player until at least the quarterfinals. As long as he can play consistent when the field shrinks, then I believe he has a great chance at making the finals. The +165 odds offer a great return on your investment.

It’s better than picking Federer to win the tournament, which is +325 odds. And that’s because I just don’t see Federer beating Djokovic in the finals. With that said, all this bet requires us to wager on is Roger making it down to the final two players, and I think that will happen. Federer has 11 finals appearances in 20 trips to Wimbledon. I expect this year to be his 12th appearance in the finals at the All England Club.

Tennis Bet: Yes, Federer will reach the finals (+165)

Will Nadal Reach the Final?

  • Yes (+275)
  • No (-375)

Unfortunately, I don’t see the “King of Clay” making it to the finals of Wimbledon this year. If he was seeded second overall, like Federer is, then I would say Rafael could make it. Unfortunately, he will most likely be on the same side of the bracket as Djokovic, and I expect Novak to win that matchup. If you want to take a flier on the “Yes” option, then do it at your own peril. The smart money is on “No.”

Tennis Bet: No, Nadal won’t reach the finals (-375)

Will It Be a Djokovic vs Federer Final?

  • Yes (+350)
  • No (-500)

I love the value on this prop bet because I do believe it will be a Djokovic vs Federer meeting in the finals. As I’ve laid out above, I see Djokovic storming through his half of the bracket and steamrolling Nadal in the semifinals if Rafael is in his Draw. On the other side, I see Federer overcoming a bumpy two weeks and making it to the finals. The +350 odds will bring back a great return on your investment. For every $100 you wager on this Wimbledon prop bet, you will win $350 dollars.

Tennis Bet: Yes, it will be a Djokovic vs Federer final (+350)

Federer / R. Nadal Wins Wimbledon

  • Yes (+170)
  • No (-215)

I don’t see either man defeating Djokovic this year at Wimbledon, but they are the only two players with a realistic chance. If the projected Wimbledon Draw comes to fruition, then Nadal will get a crack at Novak in the semifinals and Federer will get a shot at Djokovic in the finals. That will be two tough matches in a row for Djokovic, but I believe he will handle it. Nevertheless, this is actually a great way to hedge your bet if you are taking Djokovic to win Wimbledon like I am.

Tennis Bet: Yes, Federer or Nadal will win Wimbledon (+170)

Djokovic / Federer or Nadal Wins Wimbledon

  • Yes (-400)
  • No (+300)

This is probably the most obvious wager of them all. I believe one of these three superstars will win the tournament. I don’t see anyone else having a chance at beating the Big 3 of tennis unless they all get sick or injured and pull out. Combined, these three men have won 14 of the last 16 Wimbledon Grand Slam tournaments. With that said, this is an easy “Yes.”

Tennis Bet: Yes, Djokovic, Federer or Nadal will win Wimbledon (-400)

Will There Be a First-Time Winner at Wimbledon?

  • Yes (+300)
  • No (-400)

As mentioned, 14 of the last 16 Wimbledon winners have been Nadal, Federer and Djokovic. The only other man to win during the last 16 years has been Andy Murray who won in 2013 and 2016. Unfortunately, he will only be competing in the double’s tournament at the All England Club.

If anyone else were to win outside of the Big 3, then it would be a first-time winner. With that said, I just don’t see this being the year we get a first-time winner. Murray in 2013 was the last time that has happened and there’s nobody else in the world that can compete with the Big 3 on grass.

Tennis Bet: No, there will not be a first time winner (-400)

Who Will Win the 2019 Wimbledon Grand Slam?

As much as I would love to see Roger Federer hoist up the trophy by defeating Rafael Nadal in the finals, that’s just not going to happen. The title of this article said it all, as it really is Djokovic vs The Field. And, I like Novak’s chances to come away with the win.

I believe there will be some excitement in this tournament, but hopefully, we do get to see the Big 3 all make the semifinals and Federer advancing to take on Djokovic. Otherwise, the finals won’t even be competitive. For example, the last three Wimbledon finals’ matchups have all ended in three-set sweeps as the higher seed easily crushed the first-time finalist. The last time we had a match go beyond three sets was in 2015 when Djokovic defeated Federer. I believe we could get another four-set match between the two with Djokovic winning the tournament.

With this win, Djokovic will improve to 16 career Grand Slam titles and be just two behind Nadal who is in second place with 18. Federer is still comfortably ahead at 20 career Grand Slam victories. At this pace, Djokovic could surpass Federer in 2021.

Winner: Novak Djokovic (+150)

Betting Value:

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1600)
  • Kevin Anderson (+3300)
  • Longshot: Stan Wawrinka (+6600)
Rick Rockwell: As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.