The Bachelor: Chances of Receiving the Final Rose

by Michael Stevens
on February 3, 2017

We are now five episodes deep into The Bachelor’s 21st season, and things are starting to get interesting. Episode five brought us the ever tense two-on-one date, which typically takes place between a pair of unlikable characters that nobody wants to see stick around any longer.

That was absolutely the case in this instance, with this season’s bratty villain, Corinne, going up against the supremely condescending Taylor. The two went with Nick on some grungy date in the middle of a Louisiana bayou accompanied by a ragged airboat driver that may or may not cook meth in his spare time.

Following a dramatic date that really just featured Corinne and Taylor bitching about each other behind their backs, Nick opted to keep Corinne around. The two then departed with the meth guy on the airboat, leaving Taylor to fend for herself among the gators and snakes of the bayou.

In a sneak peek of next week’s episode, though, we see Taylor walk like a zombie back into civilization, where she decides to crash Nick and Corinne’s one-on-one time in New Orleans. There seems to be a good chance that Taylor winds up taking Corinne down with her, though I suppose we will have to wait and see.

In the meantime, though, we can just act like Corinne will be advancing. Here are how each of the remaining 12 ladies stack up moving forward.


This season’s Wikipedia page indicates that Whitney is still around, though I can literally not remember a single thing she has done all season long. Either she emerges later on and winds up being a serious contender, or Nick is just keeping her around because most of the other contestants have been that underwhelming.

Whatever the case, we have no reason to believe Whitney is going to be around much longer. Nick has the personality of a cardboard box, yet he seems to be making progress with every girl on the show not named Whitney. That can’t bode well for her long-term role on the show.

Chances of winning:

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Josephine’s profile says her occupation is “unemployed nurse,” which is quite the fancy way of saying she is just unemployed. As is the case with Whitney, Josephine’s role in the show has been a whole lot of nothing so far. She seems like the type of character that will make friends with a bunch of girls in the house without actually making much progress with Nick.

Because of those friendships she could be forging, she also could serve as a sacrificial lamb in future episodes. You know, the contestant that uses their time with the bachelor or bachelorette to trash talk some other girl/guy in the house rather than actually doing anything to help their own chances of advancing. Once she bows out none of us are going to remember she was ever even here in the first place, sadly.

Chances of winning:

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Jaimi is the chef from New Orleans with the nose ring that claims to have been a lesbian in the past. In spite of all that, Jaimi claims the most outrageous thing she has ever done is crowd surfed, which sounds about as outrageous as scooping kitty litter.

She’s kinda funky and Nick seems to like having her around, but, again, he has made more headway to this point with some of the other women. Jaimi could always rise up out of nowhere and establish herself as a serious contender, but we haven’t seen much evidence of that yet. As a result, her long-terms odds aren’t looking too good.

Chances of winning:

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I was certain Alexis was going to bow out on the first night when she showed up in a Left Shark costume that she claimed was a dolphin and got hammered in the swimming pool, but here she is five weeks later still lingering around. Her role on the show is to just mozy on through all the group dates before appearing during the blooper reel in the credits at the end. She is kinda like a less bizarre Ashley S. from a few seasons ago.

She’s not going to win, but in the meantime she is still around to provide some comic relief, I assume. There really is no other reason for Nick to be keeping her around this long. I suspect we’ll see Alexis in the future on Bachelor in Paradise, but she has about as much of a chance of winning the final rose this season as any of these other spares.

Chances of winning:

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Jasmine is the Golden State Warriors dancer that went around tempting fate with Mae the ghost all over that haunted mansion last week. She has spent the majority of her first five weeks on the show rolling her eyes at Corinne, which is never a recipe for future success. Getting all caught up in other people’s business is a good way of getting yourself booted.

Her profile says if she could choose one celebrity to be for a day, it would be Guy Fieri. She claims to be the “girl version” of Guy Fieri, which sounds like legitimate nightmare fuel. We can’t have female Guy Fieri walking the earth, so let’s get her out of here, too.

She is not as spare as some of these other ladies, but she won’t be going far.

Chances of winning:

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Kristina is the dental hygienist from Kentucky by way of Russia. Kentucky and Russia do not seem too similar on the surface, but if we do a little digging there are some serious correlations. They are both quite similar, really. Both Russia and Kentucky seem dreary and bland and are both ruled by dictators with probable mafia ties (Vladimir Putin and John Calipari).

Kristina seems normal enough, but I also don’t think we’ve really seen her with Nick in many one-on-one situations. She could be a dark horse candidate that emerges as a viable threat later in the season, but for now we have to give her long odds.

Chances of winning:

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Okay, now we are getting to the women that actually seem to have some sort of connection, as hollow as it may be, with Nick. Vanessa is the special education teacher from Montreal that spent some time with Nick berating him about getting frisky in the bounce house with Corinne.

If she could be any fruit or vegetable, Vanessa claims she would be an onion because “they’re a staple item and can be found all year round.” What does that even mean? Firstly, onions are not staple crops. At least here in ‘Merica. Secondly, I’m pretty sure I can get an apple whenever the hell I want too, Vanessa.

Vanessa seems like an adult compared to most of the other candidates here, but who knows if that is what Nick really wants? He’s been on this freaking show four times now. Based on that and the fact that Corinne remains around, it’s easy to see Vanessa not being Nick’s cup of tea in the end.

Chances of winning:

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Raven is your standard southern belle type that claims to be all about God and football, or whatever. VERY original. She also told Nick that one time she beat the crap out of her ex-boyfriend with a shoe when she walked in on him cheating on her, which probably scored her points with literally everyone but her ex and Nick.

She already met Nick’s parents when he took her to a weird children’s soccer game featuring his little sister, so perhaps that gives Raven something of a leg up on the rest of the women. I wouldn’t consider her a true frontrunner at this point, though, so we’ll give her three roses, as well.

Chances of winning:

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Ah, Corrine. Without her this season would be incredibly lame, so we can all be grateful for her never-ending booze intake and general lack of self-awareness. She claims to run a multimillion-dollar company and has a nanny despite being far too old for such a thing, so she is basically the Donald Trump of this season.

She also tried to entice Nick with some whipped cream right in front of the mansion earlier this season in a move so brazenly stupid that even she immediately regretted it afterward. When someone as vapid as Corinne regrets doing something, you know it must be embarrassing.

Anyway, we don’t even know if Corinne will make it beyond next week’s episode. Taylor ominously returns from the dead to try and pull the rug out from under her, and the preview makes it look like both Corinne and Taylor are cut. Even if she manages to stick around, though, is she really going to win? Nicks’ antenna might not pick up all the channels, but even he must be smart enough to know Corinne can’t be the choice.

Chances of winning:

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Danielle L.

Danielle L. drew a one-on-one with Nick a few weeks back when their “journey around the globe” took them to Nick’s lame hometown right outside of Milwaukee. They were walking around town when she and Nick just happened to “bump into” one of Nick’s ex-girlfriends. What a coincidence! Luckily for Nick, the two apparently remain on good terms so she just spent her time on the show heaping praise on him. Man, he really dodged a bullet there!

She also told him her biggest flaw is that her parents are divorced, which sure doesn’t really sound like some sort of personal flaw, but oh well. At the end of their date, they went into some music venue and slow danced in front of hundreds of strangers to a country artist nobody has ever heard of. This happens at least twice a season.

Danielle L. has not really featured since then, but she seems to have a good shot at winning if for no other reason than this season is generally lacking in legitimate contenders.

Chances of winning:

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Danielle M.

Danielle M. is a nurse (presumably employed) from Tennessee. She seems to be the contestant with a personal tragedy story as her former fiancé died.

Otherwise, there is not really anything all that noteworthy about Danielle. She doesn’t seem to be making any enemies in the house, so her chances of getting backstabbed at some point later on seem rather slim.

She seems like the type that will stick around for a while, and she also drew the first one-on-one of the season, so apparently Nick is already somewhat intrigued.

Chances of winning:

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Rachel is the lawyer from Dallas that seems too well put-together to be going on this show, but here she is! Nick gave her the coveted first impression rose back in the first week and also took her on a one-on-one this past week in New Orleans. They actually ate some food during their date, which is the first time this has ever happened in the history of the show.

Nick also basically told Rachel already that he really likes her and that he wants her to meet his parents, which seems to bode well for her chances in the long haul.  As a result, she has to be the odds-on favorite at this point.

Chances of winning:

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Michael Stevens

Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on all things casino and sports betting. Michael has been writing for since early 2016.

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