Week 5 of the NFL season saw a few upsets as underdogs not only covered spreads, but a few of them also won outright like the Las Vegas Raiders, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, and Carolina Panthers. In fact, the betting favorites went 6-8 last week, which brings their season total to 37-38-1 ATS.
For the first time this year, the Over didn’t come away a winner. Heading into the last two games of the week, the Under was 7-5. However, the Over hit in both of the Monday and Tuesday night games which brought the total to 7-7 for the week. On the season, the Over is 44-33.
Let’s huddle up and take a look at the best bets for Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season. Odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
Quick Recap of Week 5’s Best Bets
In Week 5, I went 1-3 with the following NFL wagers:
Buccaneers Win By a TD or More
Panthers to Cover a FG
Colts to Beat the Browns Outright
Seahawks vs Vikings Score 60 Total Points
The Bucs and Colts were favorites heading into their games and they both played well below expectations. Not only didn’t they cover their spreads, but they both lost the games outright. Even the high scoring Seahawks and Vikings failed to cover the Over by four points.
The only win for Week 5 was Carolina covering 3 points and winning the game outright.
It was an abysmal week for picks. In fact, my performance was just like what the Chiefs and Bills did on the field in Week 5 of the season. So, let’s chalk it up to an off week and not panic.
We’re still sitting 12-5 on the season and Week 6 offers better opportunities than last week.
Steelers Keep Beating the Browns
Despite beating the Colts last weekend, I am not sold on the Cleveland Browns. Furthermore, I’m not sold on Baker Mayfield. This week, I don’t see how Cleveland will be able to go into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-1-1 in the last 10 head to head meetings between these two divisional rivals. Furthermore, they’re 76-59-1 all-time against the Browns. Even more staggering is that Pittsburgh is 48-21 in home games against the Browns including winning 16 straight.
The Browns are 5-13 SU in their last 18 road games, 7-13 SU in their last 20 games as an underdog, and 3-6 SU in their last nine October games.
Cleveland is giving up 29.8ppg, 400.8 total ypg, and 313.8 passing ypg. That bodes well for Big Ben and the Steelers offense.
The key matchup of this game is Pittsburgh’s rush defense which allows only 64 ypg against Cleveland’s league leading rushing attack that puts up 188.4 ypg.
I see Pittsburgh stuffing the run and then getting after Baker Mayfield with their dominant pass rush. This game could get ugly in a hurry.
Bucs Hand Packers First Loss of Season
Tampa Bay (-104)
I’m making this pick on the assumption that WR Chris Godwin will play on Sunday. If he doesn’t play then ignore this pick. As of now, Godwin is getting in limited practice sessions which means he’s on track to play this week.
With Godwin in the lineup, the entire Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense opens up including the run game that should get Fournette back as well. The bruising running back is also getting in limited practice sessions this week.
A big reason why I like the Bucs this weekend is that they have the best rush defense in the league allowing just 58.4 ypg. I see this defense holding Green Bay’s rushing attacking to well below their season average of 150.8 ypg.
Making the Packers a one-dimensional offense will help the Bucs defense as they don’t have to bite on the play action. Even with WR Davante Adams back, there’s not enough supporting talent in GB’s passing game to shred this Bucs secondary.
In the last 10 head to head meetings, these two teams are 5-5. Furthermore, the Bucs are 2-0 this year at home. I like Brady and the Bucs to win this game especially after having 10 days to prepare and get players healthy.
Rams Beat the 49ers by More Than a FG
Rams -3.5 (-105)
The San Francisco 49ers have to be the biggest disappointment of 2020 so far. They’re currently 2-3 on the season and hopelessly sitting in the basement of the NFC West.
Injuries have destroyed this team’s chances of making the Playoffs this year. Furthermore, after the LA Rams game, they have a very tough schedule the rest of the way including matchups against the Patriots, Seahawks twice, Packers, Saints, Bills and Rams again.
With the way this team is currently playing, those games could all result in losses. But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here.
This weekend, the Rams come into town and they’re playing great football in 2020. Their only loss on the season was at Buffalo by a TD with 15 seconds left.
Goff has thrown 12 TD passes vs. the 49ers in six previous matchups ?
Other than that, the Rams have been dominating opponents with an average win margin of 13.25ppg. They’re also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
The 49ers have lost by an average of 11.8ppg and are 0-3 at home this year. Their only two wins on the season came against the Jets and the Giants. Let that one sink in for a minute.
With a depleted defense and a revolving door at the quarterback position, the 49ers were blown out by the Dolphins last weekend 43 to 17. When you add in Shanahan’s questionable play calling, this team is nowhere close to being the best in the West.
The Rams defensive line will wreak havoc on the 49ers passing game and LA’s offense will outscore San Francisco by at least a FG on Sunday. I expect the Rams to win by more than a touchdown. They swept the 49ers last year and I believe they will do it again this year.
It’s safe to say that the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills were the most disappointing teams in Week 5 other than the 49ers. Both of these teams lost by double digit points with the Bills looking worse than the Jets. With that said, I expect these two high powered offenses to get back on track in Week 6.
On the season, the Bills and Chiefs combine to score 57.6 total ppg. They’re also giving up a combined 50.4 ppg. Yet, each team gave up at least 40 points in Week 5.
I expect this game to be a shootout where they combine to score over 60 total points. QBs Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen should both have strong performances after having disappointing outings last week.
Arizona Wins Outright Over Dallas
Dallas has a horrible defense as they give up the most points per game at 36ppg. Furthermore, they are on the field more than any other team, but one. Additionally, they’re 20th against the pass and 28th against the run.
Arizona has the 13th best rush offense and will eat up Dallas on the ground especially with QB Kyler Murray scrambling for first downs.
The Arizona Cardinals have the best WR in De’Andre Hopkins who is going to destroy this terrible Dallas secondary. If Giants’ WR Slayton can go for over 100 yards against Dallas then Hopkins could go over 150 yards on Sunday.
The Cardinals just beat up on a bad Jets defense and will do that again this weekend against a bad Cowboys defense.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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