Super Bowl 55 is all about the quarterbacks. The matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady is a true all-timer. By the time both players have hung up their cleats, there is a reasonable chance that they will be remembered as the two best quarterbacks to have ever played the game.
Brady’s case speaks for itself, of course. This will be his 10th Super Bowl appearance, and he’s gunning for his seventh ring. He is also looking to become the second QB in league history to have won a Super Bowl as the starter for two different teams. If he wins, he will become the first quarterback ever to win titles as the starting quarterback for teams in two different conferences. Brady hasn’t ruled out the possibility of playing until he’s 45, so there is really no limit to the number of records he may set before he’s finished.
Mahomes’ career is clearly on a similar trajectory.
He’s set to make his second straight Super Bowl appearance, and the Chiefs haven’t fallen short of the AFC Championship Game in any of his three seasons as the starter. If he wins, he’ll become the first QB since Brady 16 years ago to lead his team to back-to-back titles. There is no reason to believe that he can’t lead Kansas City to a dynastic run of their own if he can stay healthy over the next several years.
As you may have imagined, there are all sorts of QB-related Super Bowl 55 prop betting options available in advance of the highly-anticipated clash between the players on Sunday. What are the best quarterback props for Super Bowl 55?
Tom Brady Total Passing Yards
Over 300.5 (-110)
Under 300.5 (-110)
Brady put up some huge numbers in his first season with the Buccaneers. Given the team’s outstanding group of pass-catchers and Bruce Arians’ love affair with the passing game, it was hardly a surprise. Brady made the most of his advantageous new job, and finished the season with over 4,600 yards and 40 touchdown passes.
Brady averaged 289.6 passing yards per game across those 16 regular-season outings. That was his highest average since 2016. As it turns out, throwing to guys like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown is a lot more fun than throwing to Jakobi Meyers, Matt LaCosse, and Damiere Byrd. Who could’ve seen that coming?
While the Bucs may be a pass-happy offense, Tampa Bay’s best chance of actually winning this game hinges on their ability to control the tempo of the game. Keeping Mahomes and the vaunted Chiefs offense on the sidelines should be one of Tampa Bay’s top priorities. While Brady would probably prefer to air-it-out on every play, the smarter approach would be to take a more balanced gameplan into Sunday.
NFL betting sites are expecting a close game, and with good reason. It’s hard to see either team really running away with this one. The over/under is high (56.5), but Brady’s passing yardage prop looks a bit aggressive, too. The future Hall-of-Famer topped has 300 yards in seven of his 19 games so far this season. The Chiefs’ defense is vulnerable, but I think there is excellent value on the “under” here at -110.
Tom Brady Total Passing Yards – Under 300.5 (-110)
Patrick Mahomes Total Passing Yards
Over 329.5 (-120)
Under 329.5 (+105)
The Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU in order to bring a more dynamic playmaker into the mix, but this is still a pass-first offense. If you have Patrick Mahomes, why wouldn’t you throw the ball as often as you possibly can? Andy Reid is well aware that he has Mahomes on his team, so he puts that big right arm to good use.
While the Bucs could take a more conservative approach as the underdogs here, I do not have similar expectations for the Chiefs. Kansas City doesn’t change their identity regardless of their opponent. As a result, it’s safe to assume Mahomes will chuck the ball all day long on Sunday. The Texas Tech product hasn’t attempted fewer than 30 throws in a game since October 25. He has topped 40 in seven of the 10 games since that point.
The over/under of 329.5 passing yards is admittedly high, even for Mahomes. However, you can also see that the juice is still on the over (-120). Mahomes hasn’t thrown for more than 325 yards in any of his last four games, and he went over 330 yards seven times during the regular season. One of those games happened to come against the very same defense he’ll see on Sunday. Mahomes threw for a season-high 462 yards in the Chiefs’ 27-24 win against the Bucs in November. You may remember that game as the same one in which Tyreek Hill topped 200 receiving yards…in the first quarter.
Tampa Bay’s defense is talented, but Mahomes will have enough opportunities to easily top the 330-yard mark in Super Bowl 55. The plus-money value is on the “under,” but there’s a reason for that. Give me the “over” on 329.5 yards for Mahomes in this one.
Patrick Mahomes Total Passing Yards – Over 329.5 (-120)
First Touchdown Pass
Patrick Mahomes (-140)
Tom Brady (+110)
These quarterbacks combined to throw 78 touchdown passes during the regular season. Considering how much both teams enjoy throwing the football, it’s pretty safe to assume that both of them will throw at least one touchdown strike in Super Bowl 55. The question is: Which will find the end zone first?
Of course, this prop is something of a crapshoot. The team that gets the ball first is obviously going to have the best chance to score the first TD. Mahomes is the slight favorite here because the Chiefs are favored, and the Bucs are the more likely team to use the ground game once they get into scoring position. Tampa Bay finished the regular season with 16 rushing touchdowns, while Kansas City scored 13. However, both teams have three rushing scores so far this postseason.
That said, I think it’s worth a shot to take a stab at the value on Brady here. The Tampa Bay Bucs scored a touchdown on 64.86 percent of their red-zone appearances this season, which was a slightly higher rate than the Chiefs had (61.43). The Tampa Bay defense was also far more stingy once they were pushed back into their own red zone. The Buccaneers’ defense ranked 19th in the league in this category, with their opponents scoring touchdowns on 62.3 percent of red-zone appearances. The Chiefs’ defense, meanwhile, finished dead-last in the league (74.07 percent).
With the game expected to be a shootout, I expect the Bucs to elect to receive if they happen to win the coin toss. Getting off to a strong start and putting the Chiefs into an early hole should be high on Tampa Bay’s list of priorities, right? I don’t think you’re dumb to bet either side of this one, but I’d side with the plus-money value on Brady.
Who Will Throw the First Touchdown Pass – Brady (+110)
Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion
Over 39.5 yards (-110)
Under 39.5 yards (-110)
The Chiefs are a big-play machine. Nobody knows that better than the Buccaneers, who were absolutely shredded by Mahomes and Hill the last time these teams met. Mahomes racked up well over 400 yards that day, while Hill scored on three different plays of 75, 44, and 20 yards, respectively. Last season, Mahomes completed better than 60 percent of his passes that went at least 21 yards through the air. That was the second-most accurate mark in the league behind only Kyler Murray.
The Buccaneers were the only team in football to engineer more “explosive” pass plays in the NFL this past season than the Kansas City Chiefs.
Brady completed 80 passes of at least 15 yards, while Mahomes completed 77 such throws. Hill and Mecole Hardman are the real big-play threats for Kansas City, but Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and Edwards-Helaire are all capable of doing damage in the open field, too.
In case you couldn’t tell, I’m bullish on Mahomes’ chances of having a big game on Sunday. Since I’m betting the “over” on 329.5 passing yards, I’ll certainly be doubling down on the “over” here, too. There are just too many weapons here for the Bucs to keep this offense in check over the course of the full 60 minutes.
Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion – Over 39.5 Yards (-110)
Tom Brady To Score A Touchdown
We know Tom Brady isn’t known for his rushing prowess. The longest run in his Super Bowl career was a 15-yarder against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51. The man rushed for a grand total of six yards all season. The Bucs wanted to do everything possible to keep their prized 43-year-old healthy. If Brady is forced to scramble a bunch on Sunday, things will have gone terribly wrong for Tampa Bay.
However, Brady’s 6’4″ frame has come in handy in short-yardage situations over the years. There actually haven’t been many QBs in the league more proficient in terms of converting QB sneaks when called upon to do so. Brady has been proficient at plunging his way through the line over the course of his 21-year career. He has multiple rushing touchdowns in each of the last three years, including three this season. Four, if you include playoffs. Brady snuck his way into the end zone in the Divisional Round victory over New Orleans before his unsuccessful high-five attempt with a referee:
Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones have shared duties in the backfield for most of the season, but neither has a firm grip on the starting job. If the Buccaneers get down near the goal line, the smart money would be on Brady to call his own number.
TB12 has never rushed for a touchdown in a Super Bowl, but that could certainly change this year. Given the odds, you might as well throw a dart on “yes” at +550 here. One plunge into the end zone nets you a pretty sizable payout.
Tom Brady To Score A Touchdown – Yes (+550)
Super Bowl MVP
Patrick Mahomes (-115)
Tom Brady (+240)
The quarterback of the winning team has been an awfully good bet to win Super Bowl MVP over the years. While we have seen unlikely heroes rise up every now and again, the smart money is on the QBs, as always. The fact that we don’t have someone like Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson in this game only enhances the chances that we see another passer claim the hardware.
Brady and Mahomes have combined to win five Super Bowl MVPs over the years, which accounts for nearly 10 percent of all Super Bowl MVP trophies all-time. Quarterbacks have won 30 of the 54 MVP awards to this point, as well. Since 2010, QBs have accounted for eight of the 11 MVPs handed out.
Whichever QB looks like a better bet to win MVP just depends on which team you think will win the game. The Bucs may have something of a home-field advantage on Sunday, but the Chiefs will enter the game as betting favorites. It’s hard to imagine Tampa Bay winning this game without a signature performance from Brady.
The same can be said for Mahomes, of course. He won last year’s MVP despite not playing one of his better games. Let’s not forget that he actually became one of the first Super Bowl MVPs to ever throw multiple interceptions in the game. Mahomes doesn’t have to dominate in order to reclaim the trophy. As long as the Chiefs win and he doesn’t look terrible, he’s probably going to win it again.
If you want the safe bet, roll with Mahomes. If you think Brady turns back the clock and leads the Bucs to the upset win, take the +240 value in his MVP odds. Brady has literally won this award more than any other person that has ever lived, so he’s certainly not a bad option by any means.
Super Bowl 55 MVP – Mahomes (-115)
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...
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