The Complete 2019 NASCAR Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500 Betting Guide

by Rick Rockwell
on February 22, 2019
15

Minute Read

On Sunday, February 24th, NASCAR will be live from the Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, grabbing the attention of fans and bettors alike. This is the second race of the 2019 season, and it’s significantly different than last weekend’s Daytona 500. With NASCAR’s Super Bowl behind them, all of the drivers and teams can now turn their attention toward Atlanta and the rest of the season.

Race Profile

Before indulging in betting on the race, it’s good to break it down. The Atlanta Motor Speedway is a 1.54-mile oval track with four turns and two straightaways. The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 race breaks down as follows:

  • Total Miles: 500 miles
  • Total Laps: 325 laps
  • Stage 1: First 85 laps
  • Stage 2: Second 85 laps
  • Stage 3: Final 155 laps

The race begins at 2 PM ET and can be seen on FOX TV.

Previous Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Winners

Originally, this race was traditionally the second Atlanta race of the season and often ran in November. However, since NASCAR changed their playoff format, the lone Atlanta race was moved in 2015 to the end of February or beginning of March depending on when the season starts. The following is a list of the previous winners since 2009:

  • 2009 – Kasey Kahne
  • 2010 – Tony Stewart
  • 2011 – Jeff Gordon
  • 2012 – Denny Hamlin
  • 2013 – Kyle Busch
  • 2014 – Kasey Kahne
  • 2015 – Jimmie Johnson
  • 2016 – Jimmie Johnson
  • 2017 – Brad Keselowski
  • 2018 – Kevin Harvick

Last year, Kevin Harvick dominated the race in Atlanta. He led 181 of the 325 laps and blew away the field. Second place Brad Keselowski finished over three seconds back of Harvick. This performance would spark Harvick’s stellar 2018 season as it was the first of eight wins for Kevin.

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Betting Odds

The following NASCAR betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Kevin Harvick +400
  • Kyle Busch +600
  • Brad Keselowski +700
  • Joey Logano +700
  • Martin Truex Jr +700
  • Kyle Larson +900
  • Chase Elliott +1000
  • Clint Bowyer +1400
  • Denny Hamlin +1400
  • Aric Almirola +2000
  • Erik Jones +2000
  • Kurt Busch +2000
  • Ryan Blaney +2000
  • Jimmie Johnson +2200
  • Alex Bowman +5000
  • Austin Dillon +5000
  • Daniel Suarez +5000
  • Paul Menard +5000
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr +5000
  • William Byron +5000
  • Matt DiBenedetto +6600
  • Daniel Hemric +10000
  • Ryan Newman +10000
  • Ryan Preece +20000
  • Bubba Wallace Jr +25000
  • Chris Buescher +25000
  • Michael McDowell +25000
  • Matt Tifft +50000
  • Ty Dillon +50000

Folds of Honor Betting Favorites

According to popular NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 this Sunday:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Kevin Harvick 2 7 13 16.2 16.7 4
Kyle Busch 2 5 7 11.7 14.8 1
Brad Keselowski 1 3 6 15.5 16.5 3
Joey Logano 0 2 4 20.2 16.7 0
Martin Truex Jr. 0 3 8 15.9 17.6 4

Kevin Harvick (+400)

Last weekend, Kevin Harvick was caught up in a late crash that wiped him out of winning the Daytona 500. This was the same scenario for Harvick as in 2018. However, last year, Kevin would go on to win the next three races. Will he be able to repeat that early season success in 2019?

Harvick is a beast at this race track. Since 2015, Harvick has led 720 laps and has had four top 10 finishes. He’s averaged a finish of 4.5 over that span. Since 2009, Harvick has five top 5’s and ten top 10’s out of 12 races. No other driver has come close to Harvick’s dominance in Atlanta over the last few years, not even the great Jimmie Johnson.

It’s easy to see why Harvick is a huge betting favorite this weekend.

Kyle Busch (+600)

Like Harvick, Busch has two wins in Atlanta. He also has five top 5’s, seven top 10’s, and an average finish of 14.8. Kyle hasn’t won here since 2013. Since then, Busch has an average finish of 13th. Last year, Kyle finished 7th and led just nine laps. It was the most laps he’s led since his 2013 victory.

Unlike Harvick, Kyle started off the 2019 season on a high note as he finished 2nd last weekend in Daytona. The near victory is going to fuel Busch to dominate the rest of the season as he failed once again to win the Daytona 500. I think Busch is going to run well this weekend, and he could be a real contender for the checkered flag. Don’t ignore his betting value.

Brad Keselowski (+700)

In ten races at this track, Brad has one win, three top 5’s, and six top 10’s with a 16.5 average finish. Those are respectable numbers for a driver who races well at this track. 60% of the time he finishes within the Top 10. Keep in mind that Brad won this race in 2017. However, he did finish 2nd to Harvick last year while leading 38 laps. That was more than the 21 laps he led in his 2017 victory. Keselowski has four straight top 10 finishes in the last four races with an average finish of 5.2.

Last weekend, Keselowski was an odds-on favorite to win the Daytona 500. Unfortunately, he was only able to muster up a 12th-place finish. However, that might be a good omen for Brad. Keselowski has had poor finishes at the last two Daytona 500’s but would go on to finish runner up last year and win in 2017. Can he get another checkered flag in Atlanta?

Joey Logano (+700)

Logano’s numbers in Atlanta aren’t that impressive upon first glance. However, when you dig a little deeper, you realize that he is a legitimate contender this weekend. Logano has four top 6 finishes in his last six races here. His first six races were difficult, but Joey has turned it around at this track since late 2013. Over that span, he’s had a runner-up finish, a 4th, and two 6th-place finishes. His worst showing was 14th in 2014. In 2015, he led 84 laps, which was the third most laps led in that race.

The 2018 NASCAR champion has started off the 2019 season on a strong note. Logano finished 4th last weekend in Daytona, and even led 11 laps. He was able to survive many of the big crashes and came away with a strong showing. Logano is 2nd in the Driver Standings after one week and poised to compete for a checkered flag this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr (+700)

Like Logano, Truex struggled in Atlanta during the early portion of his career. However, since late 2012, Truex has six top 8 finishes in his last seven AMS races. Last year, Truex was able to finish 5th. He did lead one lap as well. The most laps Truex ever led at the Atlanta Motor Speedway was in 2007, when he led 135 laps, but ended up crashing out late in the race. Truex has a 6.5 average finish over the last four years, and he’s been a strong driver at 1.5-mile tracks.

Martin hopes to bounce back this weekend after a disappointing Daytona 500 last Sunday. Truex was caught up in the “big one” and didn’t even finish the total laps ran. Martin ended up placing 35th. Last year, Truex was able to turn his season around after a disappointing 2018 Daytona 500. Will the 2017 NASCAR champ be able to duplicate that success in the early part of 2019?

Best Betting Value for QuikTrip 500

The following NASCAR drivers offer solid betting value based on their current betting odds and their career success at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Denny Hamlin 1 4 7 12.3 18.3 3
Kurt Busch 3 6 13 15.4 15.3 3
Jimmie Johnson 5 14 16 11.2 11.6 2

Denny Hamlin (+1400)

Denny Hamlin comes into this race on a high. In fact, if he crashes out and only races one lap, Denny will still be on a high. That’s because he won the 2019 Daytona 500 last weekend. It was the second time that he’s won the Super Bowl of NASCAR. Hamlin also has won at Atlanta in his career. However, that was way back in 2012.

Since his 2012 victory, Hamlin has either finished in the top 4 or at the back of the pack. Last year, Hamlin finished 4th overall and led 26 laps. Those were the first laps he has led at AMS since 2015. In 2017, Hamlin had car problems and didn’t even finish the race.

The biggest reason why Hamlin offers value this weekend is the momentum he has going for him after winning in Daytona. That was Denny’s first NASCAR win since Darlington in 2017. Hamlin didn’t win at all last season. If you recall, I had picked Hamlin to run well at Daytona and be in the top 5. This weekend, I don’t see a top 5 finish in the cards for Denny. However, I can see him crack the top 10 if he stays out of trouble. And, if there’s a late crash, Hamlin could be contending for a checkered flag.

Kurt Busch (+2000)

Last year, Kurt Busch was a constant presence in my Betting Value section for just about every race. And for the most part, he ran well each time. So, it should come as no surprise that I have Kurt in this week’s Betting Value section. Other than Jimmie Johnson, Kurt has the most Atlanta wins out of all active drivers. But, what really impresses me the most, Busch has an average finish of 15.3 in his 27 Atlanta races. Only Harvick (28) has more races at this track out of active drivers than Busch.

Kurt’s first win in Atlanta came all the way back in late 2002. It wouldn’t be until 2009 that he scored his second career win at this track. The next year, he came back to Atlanta and won again. Since that 3rd career win, Kurt has six top 8 finishes in eight races. His worst finish was 13th. Last year, Kurt finished 8th after leading 52 laps. In three of the last four Atlanta races that Kurt has participated in, he has led at least 22 laps or more. Over his last three Atlanta races, Kurt has an average finish of 6.3 and a starting average of 7th.

Jimmie Johnson (+2200)

Out of all of the active drivers, nobody has had more success in Atlanta than Jimmie Johnson. But, the last two years at this track have been ugly for JJ as he’s finished 19th and 27th. However, we can’t forget the fact that he won this race in consecutive years (2015 and 2016). Johnson has five career wins in Atlanta, but he has won this specific race four times, which is tied with Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt Sr., and Bobby Labonte for the most wins of this Atlanta race. However, all three of those drivers have more career wins than Johnson at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Another remarkable accomplishment for Johnson in Atlanta is that he has an average start of 11.2 and an average finish of 11.6 in 27 career races. Only Chase Elliott has a better average finish among active drivers than JJ. However, Elliott has only raced here three times.

Last weekend, Johnson finished 9th at Daytona. It was his first race with a new crew chief, and he ran in the top 10 for a large part of the race. But, he didn’t have the car to compete in the end. This weekend, if JJ is running in the top 10, then you better believe he’s going to be a threat to win the checkered flag.

Who’s the Best Longshot on Sunday in Atlanta?

Ryan Newman at +10000 odds is the best pick of any longshot to have a realistic chance at winning this weekend. Newman started off the 2019 season with a 14th-place finish at the Daytona 500 last weekend. He was fortunate to escape some of the big wrecks at the end of the race.

Now, the big reason why Newman is a realistic longshot is due to his past success at this track. Newman has won the pole in Atlanta on seven occasions. He’s tied with Buddy Baker for the most AMS poles all-time. Unfortunately, he also holds the dubious honor of the most Atlanta races without a win, which is currently at 26 and counting.

With that said, Newman did lead 17 laps here last year. So, he has the ability to get up there in the front, but he ended up with car issues and finished 22nd. In fact, Newman hasn’t finished the total number of laps an Atlanta race has completed since 2015. That year, he finished 10th overall. Watch for Newman to pull off one of his unheralded runs where he shows up in the top 10 late in the race and could possibly get to victory circle with a little bit of luck.

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Prop Bets: Driver Matchup

In this popular NASCAR prop bet, your goal is to pick the driver that will have the highest finish at the end of the race. The following props are via 5Dimes:

Erik Jones -130 vs Jimmie Johnson +100

Driver Erik Jones Jimmie Johnson
Wins 0 5
Top 5 0 14
Top 10 0 16
Avg Start 16.5 11.2
Avg Finish 12.5 11.6
DNF 0 2
Total Races 2 27

I am very surprised at these betting odds. I understand that Jimmie Johnson had a few poor finishes over the last two races, but not enough to be an underdog to Erik Jones who has a 12.5 average finish in just two races, but Johnson is at 11.6 in 27 races.

The difference in racing experience at this track is huge. Not only that, Jones has never led a lap here or finished higher than 11th, where JJ averages for his career. Jones’ top finish was 14th in 2017. Johnson has finished better than 14th on 18 occasions.

I believe the oddsmakers are giving Jones too much credit for his 3rd place finish last week at Daytona. I feel that Jones was lucky to have missed some crashes and never really had a car that could compete with Hamlin or Kyle Busch. Neither did Johnson, but his 9th place finish was solid for running the first race with a new crew chief. Now JJ returns to a track that he’s dominated at in his career and he’s being matched up against a young driver with only two races at AMS. I’m taking Johnson to win this matchup.

Winner: Jimmie Johnson (+100)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr -130 vs Ryan Newman +100

Driver Ricky Stenhouse Jr Ryan Newman
Wins 0 0
Top 5 0 2
Top 10 1 9
Avg Start 10.3 6.8
Avg Finish 18.5 18.1
DNF 1 3
Total Races 6 26

In this matchup, we have our longshot pick of the week going up against the younger Stenhouse. Like with Jones vs Johnson, we have a veteran driver matched up against a younger driver. Although Stenhouse finished higher than Newman last year (16th to 22nd), Stenhouse has never led a lap here. Newman has led 195 laps. Stenhouse has also never won and has no top 5 finishes. They both have similar average finishes at this track, which makes this a close battle. However, the oddsmakers believe that Stenhouse is the favorite despite not having as much success here as Newman. In fact, Ryan Newman offers some betting value in this one as he’s +100. I’m taking the veteran to squeak past Stenhouse late in the race to win this driver matchup.

Winner: Ryan Newman (+100)

Chase Elliott -140 vs Aric Almirola +110

Driver Chase Elliott Aric Almirola
Wins 0 0
Top 5 1 0
Top 10 3 1
Avg Start 20.7 22.1
Avg Finish 7.7 18.5
DNF 0 0
Total Races 3 8

In the first two driver matchups, I took the underdogs because of their vast experience at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. For this matchup, I’m taking the younger driver with less experience at AMS.

I believe Chase Elliott is going to be a superstar in this sport. He has all of the tools to be a top driver and proved it last year when he came on strong late in the season to win two races during the playoffs. Elliott finished with three total victories in 2018. Aric Almirola scored a victory last year, which is the second in his career. For the record, this is Elliott’s 5th year in the big leagues of racing and Almirola is in his 12th year. Chase has already won more races than Almirola in their respective careers. And, Chase did that in seven fewer years.

Like with their careers, Elliott has had more success than Almirola in Atlanta.  Elliott has never finished worse than 10th overall, and that came last year. Almirola’s best finish was 9th in 2014. Chase’s best finish was 5th place two years ago. I believe that Chase will compete for a top 5 spot this weekend, while Almirola will be lucky to crack the top 15. So far this season, Elliott finished 17th and Almirola finished 32nd at Daytona. Both drivers were caught up in late-race wrecks.

For this race, I’m betting on Elliott to easily defeat Almirola. I believe Chase will be in the top 10 all day long. Almirola will not.

Winner: Chase Elliott (-140)

Who Will Win the Fold of Honors QuikTrip 500 on Sunday?

I think it’s foolish to pick anyone other than Kevin Harvick to win this race. I’m sure there will be other contenders like the Busch brothers, Elliott, Johnson, Logano and so forth, but Harvick has flat out dominated at this track over the last few years.

I expect Kevin to rebound from a 26th-place finish at Daytona last weekend to win this race on Sunday. Rounding out the top 5 will be Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Jimmie Johnson, and Joey Logano.

The Checkered Flag for Atlanta

This feels like deja vu. Last year, Harvick finished poorly at Daytona and then crushed the field in Atlanta. I believe he’s going to have another strong performance this year. It’s going to be exciting to see if anyone can stop the #4 car on Sunday. I’m also looking forward to seeing how Jimmie Johnson runs this weekend with a new crew chief. His career success at this track is remarkable, and it would be cool to see the 7-time NASCAR champ contend for the checkered flag.

My Top 5 Drivers

Last weekend, I nailed three of the top five drivers for Daytona 500. The following is my prediction for the top 5 drivers this weekend:

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Kyle Busch
  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Chase Elliott
  • Joey Logano

Betting Recap for the 2019 NASCAR Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

Winner: Kevin Harvick (+400)

Betting Value:

  • Denny Hamlin (+1400)
  • Kurt Busch (+2000)
  • Jimmie Johnson (+2200)

Longshot: Ryan Newman (+10000)

Driver Matchups:

  • Jimmie Johnson (+100) over Erik Jones
  • Ryan Newman (+100) over Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Chase Elliott (-140) over Aric Almirola

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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