The WTA U.S. Open Betting Guide: Can Serena Win her 24th Grand Slam?

By Rick Rockwell in US Open - Tennis on August 26, 2019

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Minute Read

On Monday, August 26th, the 133rd edition of the women’s U.S. Open gets underway as the sport’s biggest stars embark on a two-week journey to capture the fourth and final Grand Slam tournament of the year. While tennis betting sites list Serena Williams as the odds on favorite to win this tournament, the women’s draw is wide open. There are at least a half dozen WTA stars that can win this Grand Slam including the 2018 winner Naomi Osaka. In fact, three different women have already won the other three Grand Slams this year. Will we get a fourth different Grand Slam winner for the season?

Let’s take a look at the ladies’ U.S. Open odds and prop bets, identify potential betting value, and ace our WTA predictions.

What to Watch For at Flushing Meadows?

With so much uncertainty over who will win at Flushing Meadows, the following WTA storylines are worth following closely:

  • Can Serena Williams win her 24th career Grand Slam?
  • Will Naomi Osaka win her second straight U.S. Open?
  • Will we see a 1st time Grand Slam winner?
  • Can Simona Halep win two straight Grand Slams in 2019?
  • Will there be any major upsets prior to the quarterfinals?
  • Will we get a 4th different Grand Slam winner this year?

Previous WTA U.S. Open Winners

Tennis professionals weren’t allowed to play in the U.S. Open until 1968. Prior to that year, the women’s U.S. Open tournament was only for amateurs. Of that era, Molla Bjurstedt Mallory holds the record for the most wins with eight. In the Open Era, Chris Evert and Serena Williams are tied with six wins apiece. The following is a list of WTA U.S. Open winners dating back to 2008:

  • Serena Williams in 2008, 2012-2014
  • Kim Clijsters in 2009-2010
  • Samantha Stosur in 2011
  • Flavia Pennetta in 2015
  • Angelique Kerber in 2016
  • Sloane Stephens in 2017
  • Naomi Osaka in 2018

U.S. Open Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Serena Williams (+450)
  • Simona Halep (+800)
  • Ashleigh Barty (+1000)
  • Naomi Osaka (+1000)
  • Karolina Pliskova (+1200)
  • Bianca Andreescu (+1400)
  • Madison Keys (+1400)
  • Angelique Kerber (+2500)
  • Elina Svitolina (+2500)
  • Sofia Kenin (+2500)
  • Aryna Sabalenka (+2800 )
  • Kiki Bertens (+3300)
  • Petra Kvitova (+3300)
  • Sloane Stephens (+3300 )
  • Belinda Bencic (+4000)
  • Cori Gauff (+4000)
  • Dayana Yastremska (+5000)
  • Garbine Muguruza (+5000)
  • Johanna Konta (+5000)
  • Victoria Azarenka (+5000)
  • Svetlana Kuznetsova (+6600)
  • Caroline Wozniacki (+8000)
  • Maria Sharapova (+8000)
  • Venus Williams (+8000)

The WTA U.S. Open Betting Favorites

The following WTA players are considered the betting favorites to win at Flushing Meadows:

Tennis Player Wins Finals SF QF Appearances
Serena Williams 6 9 12 15 18
Simona Halep 0 0 1 2 9
Ashleigh Barty 0 0 0 0 4
Naomi Osaka 1 1 1 1 3
Karolina Pliskova 0 1 1 2 6

Serena Williams (+450)

Williams opens up her quest for a 7th U.S. Open and 24th career Grand Slam title with a matchup against Maria Sharapova. It will be their first ever U.S. Open meeting, but Serena is clearly the better player at this point in their careers. She’s ranked 8th in the world while Sharapova is 87th. Head to head, Serena holds a 19-2 record over Maria.

Williams is in the 4th Quarter of the draw and won’t have an easy time even making it out of this quarter. Barty, Kerber and last year’s semifinalist Sevastova are going to be tough matchups if she has to face any of these women.

Serena has an overall record of 95-12 at the U.S. Open with six titles and nine finals appearances. She made it to the finals last year, but lost to Osaka. Williams made it to the finals of Wimbledon in July and Canada earlier this month. Serena is coming into this tournament healthier than she has been in a while, but still not 100%. Will that be enough to overcome the competition?

Simona Halep (+800)

Halep is the second overall betting favorite after winning Wimbledon last month. It was the second Grand Slam win of her career as she won the French Open in 2018. Unfortunately, Halep hasn’t had as much success at the U.S. Open as she has at other Grand Slam tournaments. In her nine career appearances, Halep has only made it to the quarterfinals two times and the semifinals once. Her last two appearances ended with 1st round losses.

Halep will anchor the 2nd Quarter with Petra Kvitova, but isn’t quite 100% after injuring her ankle at the Canada Masters and showed signs of a lingering injury at Cincinnati a few weeks ago. With her health and tough draw, it’s hard to feel confident in Halep winning a second consecutive Grand Slam.

Ashleigh Barty (+1000)

Barty is the second ranked player in the world and is the top seed in the 4th Quarter where Williams is as well. Like with Halep, Barty hasn’t had as much success at the U.S. Open as other Grand Slam tournaments. Ashleigh won the 2019 French Open, but followed that up with a 4th Round exit at Wimbledon. She’s just 6-4 in her career at the U.S. Open and has never made it past the 4th Round.

If there was ever a year that Barty could make a deep run at Flushing Meadows, it’s this one where some pundits consider her the WTA player of the year. Barty won at Miami this year and the warm-up tournament to Wimbledon. She also went to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in January.

As great as Barty has looked at times, there have been other times where she’s looked like an average player. With that said, many pundits feel that she could win the 4th Quarter of the draw and make a deep run in this Grand Slam.

Naomi Osaka (+1000)

As mentioned above, Naomi Osaka won last year’s U.S. Open which was the first of her career. She defeated Serena Williams in a memorable finals matchup. Osaka followed that up with an Australian Open victory, which gave her two straight Grand Slam titles. Unfortunately, Osaka was bounced in the 3rd Round of the French Open and the 1st Round of Wimbledon.

In addition to her inconsistency, Osaka comes into this tournament less than 100%. Naomi injured her leg in the Cincinnati tournament and had to retire from her quarterfinals matchup.

Osaka is 11-2 for her career at the U.S. Open and has proven that her performance in this tournament last year wasn’t a fluke. Unfortunately, there are too many question marks and tough opponents for Osaka in this Quarter of the draw.

Karolina Pliskova (+1200)

Pliskova is the #3 ranked player in the world, but has yet to win a Grand Slam in her career. Karolina has a 16-6 career record at the U.S. Open with two straight quarterfinals appearances and a finals appearance in 2016. She’s the top seed in the 3rd Quarter of the draw.

Pliskova played well at the Australian Open in January where she went to the semifinals and lost to Osaka. However, she was bounced prior to the quarterfinals in the French Open and Wimbledon this summer. In addition to her failures at the last two Grand Slams, she’s also won tournaments at Eastbourne, Rome and Brisbane. That gives her three wins on the year and a 42-12 record.

Like with many other ranked WTA players, Pliskova has had an up and down season so far. And, despite having never won a Grand Slam in her career, she has just as much of a chance in the U.S. Open as women like Halep and Osaka.

The Best WTA U.S. Open Betting Value

The following women tennis stars offer the betting value for the U.S. Open based on their current odds, past success at Flushing Meadows, expert predictions, and their 2019 season so far:

Tennis Player Wins Finals SF QF Appearances
Bianca Andreescu 0 0 0 0 0
Madison Keys 0 1 2 2 7
Angelique Kerber 1 1 2 2 11
Kiki Bertens 0 0 0 0 7
Petra Kvitova 0 0 0 0 3
Sloane Stephens 1 1 1 2 7

Bianca Andreescu (+1400)

Bianca comes into this tournament with plenty of hype and fanfare. She’s moved up to 15th in the world, but has never played in the U.S. Open before. However, there are some good things about her that could lead to her firs deep run in a Grand Slam tournament.

For starters, she has won two tournaments this year including in Toronto earlier this month and also at Indian Wells in March. Andreescu defeated Serena Williams in the finals at Toronto and Angelique Kerber in the finals of Indian Wells.

She’s showed the ability to defeat top ranked opponents and has a decent shot in this tournament. Bianca is in the 2nd Quarter with Halep and Kvitova, who can be beaten by this young Canadian tennis star.

Madison Keys (+1400)

Keys has risen eight spots over the last month and is now ranked 10th in the world. She has two tournament wins on the season, but it’s her performance at Cincinnati that have many pundits talking. Keys won in Cincinnati last week and appears in top form heading into the U.S. Open.

Madison’s best Grand Slam is the U.S. Open where she’s 19-7 overall. Last year, Keys made it to the semifinals. In 2017, she lost in the finals to Sloane Stephens. Although 2019 started off slow for Keys, she’s heating up at the right time and is quietly becoming a trendy pick to win the U.S. Open by many pundits.

Angelique Kerber (+2500)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Last year, Kerber was playing at a high level and won Wimbledon. She made it to three Grand Slam finals in 2016 including winning both the Australian Open and the U.S. Open. Kerber is 25-10 at Flushing Meadows for her career, but hasn’t made it past the 3rd Round since winning the tournament three years ago.

Furthermore, Kerber hasn’t won a tournament in 2019 and continues to fall in the rankings. She’s was ranked 5th in the world at the beginning of July, but comes into the final Grand Slam of the year ranked 14th in the world.

If Barty and Williams fall in the 4th Quarter then Kerber could fill their void. However, she’s definitely a high-risk gamble at this point.

Kiki Bertens (+3300)

Kiki has had an up and down season so far. She was ranked #4 in the world roughly seven weeks ago, but has fallen to 7th due to poor performances over the summer. Both of Kiki’s tournament wins have come in the first half of the calendar year. Since then, she’s struggled to win another one.

Another concern for Kiki supporters is that she hasn’t made it past the 3rd Round in any Grand Slam this year. That’s also the furthest she’s ever gone in the U.S. Open. In her seven career appearances at Flushing Meadows, Kiki has a record of 4-7 overall.

The one good thing for Kiki in this year’s tournament is that she’s in the same Quarter with Osaka who’s not 100%. If anyone has a chance to capitalize on Osaka’s health and inconsistency, it’s definitely Kiki.

Petra Kvitova (+3300)

Ranked #6 in the world, Kvitova sits in the 3rd Quarter of the draw with Simona Halep and Bianca Andreescu. She has a career record of 25-11 at the U.S. Open and has made it to the quarterfinals on two separate occasions. However, she was bounced in the 3rd Round last year.

Kvitova has won two tournaments this year: Sydney in January and Stuttgart in April. Sandwiched between those two wins was a finals loss at the Australian Open to Osaka. However, she was bounced in the 4th Round at Wimbledon and after just one match at Cincinnati. Kvitova has more questions than answers heading into this tournament and I’m not sure she can make it out of a tough 3rd Quarter draw.

Sloane Stephens (+3300 )

Stephens hasn’t played well in 2019 other than a quarterfinals appearance at the French Open. She was bounced in the 4th Round at the Australian Open and in the 3rd Round at Wimbledon. However, she comes to the one place where she’s had the most success at in her career – Flushing Meadows.

Stephens won this tournament in 2017, her only career Grand Slam victory, and went to the quarterfinals last year. She’s also in the 3rd Quarter of the draw where she has the talent to beat Halep or Kvitova. Unfortunately, Sloane’s recent run in tournaments over the summer haven’t given us much confidence in her. Stephens’ betting value is based more on what she’s done in the past rather than what she’s done in recent tournaments.

Top WTA Longshot to Win U.S. Open

Is there a better longshot pick than Venus Williams (+8000)? She’s a former two-time U.S. Open winner who’s been to four finals and nine semifinals as well. In 2017, Venus made it all the way to the semifinals. Last year, she lost in the 3rd Round. Venus landed in the 3rd Quarter of this draw and could upset a few ranked players on her way to another run in this tournament.

WTA U.S. Open Prop Bets

The following U.S. Open women’s prop bets are courtesy of BetOnline:

The Women’s Winning Half

  • Bottom Half (-175)
  • Top Half (+145)

The top half of the draw includes top seeds: Naomi Osaka, Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova, and Kiki Bertens. Also in this half are Sloane Stephens, Garbine Muguruza, Bianca Andreescu and Svetlana Kuznetsova.

The bottom half of the draw features top seeds and the overall betting favorite: Ashleigh Barty, Karolina Pliskova, Elina Svitolina and Serena Williams. The bottom half also includes Angelique Kerber, Venus Williams and Madison Keys.

The bottom half is the betting favorite with Serena, Ashleigh Barty, and the trendy pick in Madison Keys. I do think the top half offers more value considering it has some top young players like Andreescu, the reigning champ in Osaka, and the Wimbledon champ in Halep.

With that said, three of my top four picks to win are all in the bottom half. For this bet, take the bottom half as it’s loaded with potential winners.

U.S. Open Prop Bet: Bottom Half (-175)

Who Will Win the 2019 Women’s U.S. Open?

Like every other Grand Slam this year, the 2019 U.S. Open is wide open. Last year, Naomi Osaka burst on the scene and became a worldwide star by winning this tournament. Will we see another first time winner or will Serena win this Grand Slam for the first time since 2014? Before picking a winner, let’s break down the draw first and also examine the betting odds for the winner to come from each quarter:

Quarter 1: (+400)

This Quarter of the draw has the longest odds to win the U.S. Open as it’s anchored by two inconsistent players in Naomi Osaka and Kiki Bertens. I picked Osaka as one of the players to contend for a title at Wimbledon, prior to the draw, and she was bounced in the opening round. I had Bertens winning the French Open or at least contending for a title and she withdrew due to illness. The young American sensation Coco Cauff is also in this Quarter, but I don’t have confidence in her advancing that far.

This Quarter all comes down to Osaka’s health and Bertens consistency. I have a hard time believing that Osaka is 100% healthy after withdrawing from Cincinnati less than two weeks ago. Additionally, her play over the summer has been ugly at best. Bertens hasn’t been much better, but at least she’s fully healthy.

I’m taking Kiki Bertens to win this Quarter.

1st Quarter Winner: Kiki Bertens

Quarter 2 (+250)

Just like with Osaka, top seeds Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova don’t inspire a lot of confidence in bettors or fans. They anchor the 2nd Quarter of the draw and have a lot to prove before putting money on them. Neither player has made it to the finals of this Grand Slam. Additionally, both have failed miserably at Flushing Meadows recently. Furthermore, Halep was injured in Canada and still looked bother by her ankle injury in Cincinnati where she lost to Keys.

Also in this Quarter are Bianca Andreescu, Garbine Muguruza, Sloane Stephens and Svetlana Kuznetsova. Bianca has been playing really well lately, so has Kuznetsova who could be this Quarter’s biggest sleeper. Stephens is a former U.S. Open winner, but could face Kuznetsova in the 2nd Round. The American was soundly beaten by Svetlana at Cincinnati a few weeks ago.

Out of all the names and ranked players in this Quarter, none of them offer much confidence. However, Halep appears to have played the best in 2019 so far. If she’s 100% healthy then I believe she will come out of this Quarter.

2nd Quarter Winner: Simona Halep

Quarter 3 (+325)

Karolina Pliskova is the top seed of this Quarter along with Elina Svitolina. The two Top 5 ranked women in the world look to win this Grand Slam for the first time. Also in this Quarter are Americans Venus Williams and Madison Keys.

Madison Keys is probably playing the best tennis out of any Top 10 ranked player coming into this tournament. She probably has the easiest path to winning a Quarter due to the top ranked women having had little success here in recent years. Additionally, Keys made it to the finals in 2017 and the semifinals last year.

When you survey the landscape, there really is only one player who stands above the rest and that’s Madison Keys. I’m taking her to win this Quarter.

3rd Quarter Winner: Madison Keys

Quarter 4 (+150)

This Quarter of the draw is the odds on favorite to win the U.S. Open because of Ashleigh Barty and Serena Williams. Barty is the #2 ranked women’s player in the world and won at the French Open this year. She’s never made it even to the quarterfinals of this tournament, but she is arguably the WTA player of the year.

Serena Williams is arguably the greatest female tennis player of all-time. She’s certainly trying to become the GOAT by breaking records with another U.S. Open title. As great as Williams is, she hasn’t won a tournament all year long. Additionally, she has won a Grand Slam since the 2017 Australian Open. Lastly, she hasn’t won a U.S. Open since 2014.

With all of the controversy swirling around Serena due to last year’s outburst, controversy and public commentary since then, I think Williams could be upset this year. I’m taking Barty to win this Quarter.

4th Quarter Winner: Ashleigh Barty

And the 2019 U.S. Open Women’s Winner is….?

Based on my predictions for winners of each Quarter, the U.S. Open semifinals would feature the following matchups:

  • Simona Halep (+800) vs Kiki Bertens (+3300)
  • Madison Keys (+1400) vs Ashleigh Barty (+1000)

Bertens and Halep are 3-3 against each other all-time, so there’s no clear advantage here. I’m not confident in either woman to win their semifinal matchup. And, I’m not going to pick either one to win this tournament. My U.S. Open winner will come from the Barty vs Keys matchup.

Barty is 2-1 against Keys all-time. Ashleigh defeated Keys on her way to winning the 2019 French Open. I’d like to think that Keys will get revenge against Barty on her way to winning the U.S. Open.

For me, I like Madison Keys to win the whole tournament. Of the four semifinalists, Keys is the only one I have confidence in even making it this far. Bertens wins her Quarter due to Osaka being less than 100%, Halep wins due to other ranked players being more inconsistent than her, and there’s no guarantee that Barty will defeat Serena Williams in their quarter.

With that said, Madison Keys has the most momentum coming into the U.S. Open after winning in Cincinnati and she’s in the 3rd Quarter where she can crush the women ranked higher than her.

U.S. Open Winner: Madison Keys (+1400)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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