The 2021 NFL season is steaming towards Week 7 on the schedule with an excitement array of games. That means that you’ll be able to check out some top prop bets for individual performances. We’re here to tell you which of those props are the best.
Even with six teams sitting out on bye this week, it still should be an exciting bunch of games being played throughout the weekend. While projecting winners and point spread can be tough, it can be a bit easier to estimate the individual statistical performances of the top players in the league, like this guy for example:
With that in mind, we’re here to help you choose some of the best prop bets that can be found at top gambling sites. These are the bets based on the stats of key individual performers. Look for the value as you try to find the picks that make the most sense for you.
Top Quarterback Prop Bets
Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson: Over 231.5 Passing Yards Against Bengals (-115)
The Bengals can actually tie the Ravens for first in this contest in the AFC North and would have the tiebreaker edge with a win, so this is a big game. In the past, that line would have been tough for Jackson to hit. But Raven offensive coordinator Greg Roman has opened things up to let Jackson throw the ball this year.
As a matter of fact, Jackson has been over 231 yards in five of six games so far this season. Only last week, when the Ravens ran all over the Chargers, has he been below that mark. And that was only because he didn’t need to pass in that particular game.
The Bengals defense has ranked out as one of the toughest in the league through the early part of the season. And the running back room is pretty empty right now in Baltimore. That means Jackson passing to win, and it means that he hits the number with no sweat.
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes: Over 326.5 Passing Yards Against Titans (-115)
Mahomes has hit that marker in three of his first six games so far this season. His turnovers have been problematic, but that has nothing to do with his ability to hit that number above. And this is the kind of game that he should be throwing early and often to try to keep the Chiefs above .500.
The Titans are still lacking any performers on defense that really strike any fear into the hearts of opposing offenses. And their secondary just took a big hit with the season-ending injury to rookie Caleb Farley. Even at full bore, they’d have a hard time hanging with the Chiefs receivers.
Even though Tennessee will run the ball over the Chiefs with Derrick Henry, they should score quickly enough to put the ball back in Mahomes’ hands quickly. Mahomes should hit several big plays to both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and they don’t want to run it, so he’ll eclipse the line with ease.
Giants QB Daniel Jones: Under 233.5 Passing Yards Against Panthers (-115)
Jones started the year very well, but he is going into this game with a skeleton crew. His receivers just can’t seem to stay on the field. Kenny Golladay has hardly played, and just when Kadarius Toney was breaking out, the rookie injured an ankle and is likely to miss the game.
Kenny Golladay. Saquon Barkley. Kadarius Toney. Darius Slayton. Andrew Thomas. Nick Gates. Shame Lemieux. Blake Martinez. Rodarius Williams. CJ Board. Danny Shelton. Ben Bredeson.
You can’t help but feel bad for Daniel Jones. Were playing with a practice squad. #Giants
In addition, Saquon Barkley is likely out of this one as well. One of the reasons that Jones got off to such a fast start this year was because the threat of Barkley kept defenses honest. But the way the Rams completely gobbled up the Giants last week is emblematic of what to expect this year.
In another game, there might have been a scenario where Jones would go over the number based on garbage yards. But the Panthers have been sputtering as well, meaning that this game could stay close. That puts Jones in a position where he fails to come up with the necessary yardage to go over.
Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts: Under 247.5 Passing Yards Against Raiders (-115)
Every time that Miles Sanders got a carry against Tampa Bay last week, the Eagles fans would give a sarcastic cheer. The point was that the Eagles aren’t servicing the run game near enough. And their case was made when Sanders starting gashing the Bucs top run defense for big yardage.
It feels like maybe the message will finally get across to the Eagles coaching staff. After all, Hurts played his best game in the first week of the season when Philly committed to the run. They’d be doing him a favor by letting Sanders bang away, especially with the Raiders’ solid pass rush threatening him on obvious passing downs.
We’re guessing that Hurts has an efficient game and contributes via the run. But we think that he’ll come up a bit shy of what he needs to get to the number. It might be close, but look for the under even as the Eagles finally figure out the balance needed to be a better offensive team in the long run.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow: Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes Against Ravens (-135)
Burrow seems like a pretty safe choice to hit at least two touchdown passes in this crucial game. Right off the bat, the guy is a perfect 6 for 6 in throwing two touchdown passes in a game this season. That’s the kind of streak that you can start to take to the bank regardless of the opponent.
In Fantasy Football, Burrow is the ultimate “floor play,” the guy you can stick in your lineup and know that he’ll get you a very usable foundation at least. You can use that reliability when it comes to your prop bets as well. With the receivers he now has, he doesn’t have to be superb to hit that mark, just solid.
Don’t be fooled by the Ravens top defensive effort against the Chargers last week, as that was largely a byproduct of LA being unable to stop the Baltimore run and get off the field. The Ravens lass defense is vulnerable in most normal game scripts, and this one should be set up for Burrow to hit his two-TD base again.
Falcons QB: Under 2.5 Touchdown Passes Against Dolphins (-230)
It’s too bad this line isn’t set at a normal 1.5 TD passes. That would have made the payoff a little bit closer to even money for the under bet. But the high line does make this one about as close to a sure thing as you’re going to see on the prop bets board.
The key here is that Miami cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, who both missed the game in London against Jacksonville, have practiced in a limited bases this week. That puts them on track for a likely return on Sunday. And that gives the Dolphin pass defense a lot more teeth.
After an ugly Week 1, Matty Ice’s numbers are very much in line with his career norm. But he could run up against a rejuvenated defense, especially if those top corners can take away his go-to wideout Calvin Ridley. The profit won’t be high, but a bet against Ryan will probably put one in the win column for you for sure.
Top Running Back Prop Bets
San Francisco RB Elijah Mitchell: Over 62.5 Rushing Yards vs. Colts (-110)
OK, we know it seems like folly to predict which San Francisco running back is going to be the bell cow on any given week. But we think that Mitchell has really won the job. After all, his snap count and touch count dwarfed the amounts for Trey Sermon in the 49ers last game before the bye.
The Niners are coming off the bye and that might be just what they need to start to get this offense back to where it needs to be. It will also help Mitchell that Jimmy Garoppolo is back under center, as Trey Lance’s start last game proved him to be such a weak passer that the defense didn’t respect the threat.
The Colts run defense isn’t bad, but it’s not like the number is too high. This game script should set up for a close game and keep Mitchell in the mix all game long. Mitchell could end up with close to 20 carries, in which case he’ll go sailing past that number with a lot of room to spare.
New England RB Damien Harris: Over 64.5 Rushing Yards vs. Jets (-115)
Bill Belichick can be as fickle about his running backs as Kyle Shanahan has been for the Niners. Yet Harris seems to be avoiding the dog house of late, despite some issues holding onto the football. It helps that his fellow Pat running backs have all had the same issues, and somebody has to carry the ball.
Harris is coming off an outstanding effort against the Cowboys with 101 rushing yards. He came up just short of this number the first time that the Patriots played the Jets. But New England seems to have worked out a lot of the kinks based on their effort last week.
While Rhamondre Stevenson will probably get some carries here and there, this should be Harris’ game to carry the load. Harris is set up to smash in this game in what should be a chance for New England to get a convincing win. That should put him in over territory by the start of the fourth quarter or so.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara: Under 90.5 Rushing Yards vs. Seahawks (-110)
You see Kamara’s name and you might anticipate 90.5 being easy to get. But then you look at his stats and you see that he has only hit that total once in the first five games of the Saints season. He has been close on a few other occasions, but it’s still a tough number for him to reach.
Remember that this total doesn’t include receiving yards, which is where Kamara usually makes his hay. In addition, the Seahawks run defense just came up with a solid run game against defense against Seattle. Safety Jamal Adams moving closer to the line of scrimmage made a big difference.
Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette: Under 63.5 Yards vs. Bears (-115)
Fournette has been on a relative tear for the Bucs, averaging 80 yards rushing over the past three games. It’s a continuation of the excellent postseason he had for Tampa a year ago. And, to their credit, the Bucs have been giving the run game more than lip service.
Still, the fact is that the Bucs are a pass-first team and Ronald Jones will also get a handful of touches. That leaves Fournette with little margin for error and reliant on a game script where Tampa is way out in front much of the game. And the Bears are scrappy enough to make this tough for the Bucs.
It is a bit worrisome that both Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack might miss the game for Chicago, leaving them a bit thin up front. But we still feel that Tampa will rely on the passing game more often in this one. Fournette won’t have the efficiency necessary to get to the level above.
Redskins RB Antonio Gibson: Over 62.5 Rushing/ Receiving Yards vs. Packers (-115)
It has not been the start to the season for Washington that many pundits predicted, and that has carried over to Gibson as well. After his impressive rookie season a year ago, he seemed poised for bigger and better things this year. But the efficiency hasn’t been there (just 4 yards a carry), and he doesn’t yet have a 100-yard rushing game.
Gibson has also been dealing with a shin injury that actually caused him to miss time in the Redskins game last week against Kansas City. That is the main danger of betting him here, as it could be a case where he aggravates the injury and leaves early. But aside from that, he makes for a solid play.
Even without the efficiency, his steady volume of touches has allowed hm to hit the above mark in all other games this year besides last week. And Green Bay is fresh off allowing a big effort last week to Bears rookie Khalil Herbert. It should all add up to Gibson getting the over done on Sunday.
Cardinals RB James Conner: Under 63.5 Rushing/ Receiving Yards vs. Texans (-115)
The oddsmakers seem a little bullish on Conner this week, and maybe that’s understandable to some extent. Houston sets up to be the kind of game where Arizona is in control and can run the ball often. And Conner has seen more touches with Chase Edmonds a little banged up.
But fading Conner here is more about the eye test than anything else. Watching him run the ball, you just don’t see a lot of burst, and it hasn’t really been there besides his one standout year in Pittsburgh. That was four seasons and several injuries ago, as the current version of Conner is more of a plodder.
That theory is borne out by the efficiency, as he averages only 3.4 yards per carry this season. On top of that, he has only hit the above mark in two out of six games. There is a chance he gets the touches to get him there Sunday, but it seems more likely than not that he comes up short in the end.
Top Wide Receiver/Tight End Prop Bets
Packers WR Davante Adams: Over 95.5 Yards Receiving vs. Redskins (-115)
One of the things we’ve seen over the years with Adams and his stats is that he rarely has two quiet games in a row. It’s almost like Aaron Rodgers focuses elsewhere to throw opposing defenses off of Adams’ back. Then he comes back and takes advantage the next week against teams that don’t plot to take Adams away.
Last week was one of those relatively quiet games for Adams, as he managed just four catches for 89 yards, just the third time he’s been under 100 yards in a game this season. But the previous two times he didn’t hit the century mark, he bounced back with games of 121 and 206 receiving yards the following weeks.
Washington has too many holes in its disappointing right now that will allow them to focus all of their defensive resources on a single player. That means that it should be one of those big rebound games for Adams. He should go flying past 95.5 yards en route to one of his patented big afternoons.
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: Over 48.5 Yards Receiving vs. Dolphins (-115)
Earlier on in this article, we faded Matt Ryan’s chances of throwing three touchdown passes. But the Falcons are still most likely to try and move the ball through the air on the Dolphins. And Pitts could turn out to be the main target because of how the Miami defense is configurated.
Miami is strong on the corners with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, which probably isn’t good news for Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley. But Atlanta has already shown a willingness to move Pitts all over the formation to get him in open spaces. That means he should be able to find the softer spots in the Dolphin pass defense.
Pitts enjoyed his breakout performance with 119 yards against the Jets two weeks ago in London. Coming off a bye week, don’t be surprised if Atlanta has schemed even more creative ways to get him the ball. Once Pitts starts having 100-yard games with regularity, you’ll be shocked that you were once able to bet him at such a low over/under this week.
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase: Under 71.5 Receiving Yards vs. Ravens (-115)
This is another bet that might seem contradictory to one we gave you above, i.e. the Joe Burrow over on touchdown passes. But this is yards we’re talking about here. And Chase might not have the kind of setup in this one to continue the run he’s been on to start his career.
Chase has hit the number listed above in four of six games so far this year, including the last three in a row. That has earned him the attention of defensive coordinators around the league for sure. And that could mean Baltimore tries to blanket him with their star corner Marlon Humphrey.
On top of that, Chase is doing a lot with a little, as there have been only two games where he’s received more than eight targets. Baltimore will be taking away the deep stuff. Thus, the lowered yards per catch, combined with the relatively few targets, will make the above number difficult for him to reach.
Jets WR Corey Davis: Under 53.5 Receiving Yards vs. Patriots (-115)
If you’ve watched any amount of Patriots football over the last two decades, you know that Pats Coach Bill Belichick does an amazing job shutting down the opposing team’s top weapon. This current Pats’ group isn’t as adept at stopping teams with multiple threats, as the Cowboys proved a week ago.
But the Jets are not a team blessed with multiple threats at the moment. That puts a lot of the focus on Corey Davis, the team’s #1 receiver and single legitimate established threat in the lineup. He will likely have over/under coverage on him much of the game, forcing Jets QB Kyle Wilson to look elsewhere.
On top of that, this feels like a game where New England can control the football on offense for much of the game. That will limit Davis’ opportunities even further. We understand that getting to a modest number like 53.5 yards might not seem like much, but it will be tough sledding for Davis in this case.
We hope these suggestions sets you on the right path to some good profits at top NFL gambling sites. The opportunities are there if you inspect the matchups carefully. Combine those with the form of the players involved and your Week 7 NFL prop bets should become much clearer to you.
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...
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