UFC 229 Prop Bet: What Round will Nurmagomedov Defeat McGregor in?

by Rick Rockwell
on October 1, 2018
7

Minute Read

Heading into the UFC 229 superfight between McGregor and Nurmagomedov, Khabib is and has been the betting favorite since the fight was first announced. Currently, Nurmagomedov is a -165 favorite and McGregor is a +145 underdog according to BetOnline.

Oddsmakers and online betting sites aren’t the only ones who think Nurmagomedov will win. In fact, there are legions of MMA fans expressing their beliefs via Social Media that Khabib will win this fight. With that said, let’s assume for a moment that Khabib will win. If that’s the case, then what round will he win in?

For those looking to jump straight into the betting action on the McGregor vs. Khabib fight, here are the top sites we recommend:

5Dimes attempts to answer that question by providing us with some intriguing UFC 229 betting odds and wagering options:

Will the Fight go the Distance?

In August, following the announcement of the UFC 229 event, I examined the possibility of this superfight going the distance. So, I won’t recycle that argument in this article. What I will do is examine this fight ending inside of the full 5 rounds and from the perspective of Nurmagomedov winning.

Before all of McGregor fans blast me on Social Media, I will also examine this same betting option from the perspective of McGregor winning inside the distance in another article this week.

5Dimes has Nurmagomedov listed at +132 odds for winning the fight inside the 5 round distance and Khabib not winning via a 5 round decision at -465. Furthermore, the online betting site has the following Nurmagomedov wagering options:

Wins in Round 1 (+500)

In Khabib’s 26 career fights, he has finished off opponents 11 times in the first round. 10 of those first round victories came before he joined the UFC. In January 2013, Nurmagomedov defeated Thiago Tavares via first round in his third ever UFC fight. However, he has not won in the first round of a fight since then. That’s over 5 ½ years and 7 fights without a 1st round stoppage.

Of those 11 wins in the first round, 5 of them were the result of KO/TKO and 6 were the result of submission.

Wins in Round 2 (+600)

7 of Khabib’s professional fights have ended in the 2nd Round. The last time he ended a fight in the second round was April 2016, when Nurmagomedov defeated Darrell Horcher via TKO. Of these 7 fights, 3 came via TKO and 4 ended in a Decision as the ProFC promotion only had two round fights at the time.

Wins in Round 3 (+800)

Prior to the UFC, Nurmagomedov was never in a 3 round fight. Since joining the UFC in January 2012, Khabib has tallied 7 fights that have seen the third round. Of those 7 fights, 5 of them went the distance resulting in Nurmagomedov winning via Decision. The other two fights ended in submission.

Wins in Round 4 (+1000)

Nurmagomedov has never finished a fight in the 4th round. His last fight against Al laquinta went the full 5 rounds, which was the only time Khabib has ever seen a 4th round in his professional fight career.

Wins in Round 5 (+1350)

As mentioned, Khabib’s last fight (against Al laquinta) went the full 5 rounds as it was a championship bout. Nurmagomedov won that fight via Unanimous Decision.

Which Round will Nurmagomedov Win in?

At 26-0, and as the betting favorite, Khabib bettors sure have a lot to be confident in. Looking at his fight record, the results, the betting odds above, and only from the perspective of Nurmagomedov winning this fight, this prop bet does offer some solid betting value.

I don’t see Khabib winning this fight in the first round. He doesn’t have the striking skills to KO or TKO McGregor in the opening round. Instead, I see Khabib taking a more defensive and feeling out approach in the opening round of this fight. So, avoid this bet. I also feel that the 2nd Round will be too early as well.

Nurmagomedov has gone to the 3rd round in 8 of his 10 fights for the UFC and I expect this one to go to at least the 3rd round. 7 of his last 10 fights have gone the distance, which 6 of them were 3-round fights.

I believe these two fighters will push the fight into the latter rounds based on feeling each other out and taking calculated risks. For Nurmagomedov to win this fight he will need to grind it out, which means going into the 4th or 5th Round. I like the betting odds on these rounds with 4th Round listed at +1000 and the 5th round listed at +1350. I would take a flier on both of these.

As for picking just one round for this bet, I’m going with the 5th Round. Since I believe this fight will go deep into the allotted timeframe, in order for Nurmagomedov to win, the best bet is on a 5th Round victory.

UFC 229: McGregor vs Nurmagomdov will take place on October 6th, live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event sold out in a matter of minutes, but MMA fans can watch it on PPV. Dana White and the UFC believe that this fight will easily surpass 2 million PPV buys and possibly eclipse the 2.5 million mark.

UFC 229 Prop Bet: Nurmagomedov to win in the 5th Round (+1350)
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