Early Betting Odds and Analysis for UFC 245

By in Sports & Betting on

Keeping with recent tradition, the UFC is set to hold its biggest event of the year with UFC 245 on December 14th live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This exciting show features three world-class title fights and plenty of undercard action to keep MMA fans satiated for hours.

With two months left until the event, the UFC is still shaping the lineup. However, with what’s already booked for the show, fight fans are buzzing around the world. Sites that cover UFC betting odds have released opening lines for some of the fights already scheduled for UFC 245.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to take an early look at these UFC odds, identify any value and discuss the options of placing a wager now or closer to the event.

Announced UFC 245 Card

The UFC has announced the following fights as of publication of this article:

  • (c)Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington for UFC Welterweight Title
  • (c)Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski for UFC Featherweight Title
  • (c)Amanda Nunes vs Germaine de Randamie UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title
  • Jessica Eye vs Viviane Araujo
  • Matt Brown vs Ben Saunders
  • Oskar Piechota vs Punahele Soriano
  • Kai Kara-France vs Brandon Moreno

Rumored Fights for UFC 245

These fights are rumored to be in the works for UFC 245, but have yet to be officially announced by the UFC:

  • Robbie Lawler vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
  • Irene Aldana vs Ketlen Vieira

Early UFC 245 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of 5Dimes and current as of publication:

UFC Welterweight Championship Fight

  • (c)Kamaru Usman (-165)
  • Colby Covington (+145)

The main event for the show is a welterweight title fight between champion Kamaru Usman (15-1) and the brash challenger Colby Covington (15-1). Usman is currently a modest favorite, while Covington is an appealing underdog with value even though his line has dropped from an opening of +230.

Covington is riding a seven-fight win streak into this highly anticipated title bout. These men despise each other, which will add more drama to an intense battle. Covington last fought in August and dominated Robbie Lawler in a unanimous decision victory. Colby is 10-1 inside the octagon.

Colby has been a betting favorite for his last two fights but was a small underdog with some online betting sites when he took on Demian Maia two years ago. Before that fight, Covington hadn’t been an underdog since joining the UFC in August 2014.

Usman opened as a -300 betting favorite but dropped almost in half. He’s won 14 straight fights, including his last bout where he defeated Tyron Woodley for the welterweight title in March. Kamaru has cleaned out the division except for Covington, who hasn’t fought Woodley before. Usman is a perfect 10-0 inside the octagon.

Usman was an underdog in his fight against Woodley with odds as high as +175, depending on the sports betting site. Before that, Kamaru Usman hadn’t been an underdog since his days of fighting in Legacy FC over five years ago.

With the bad blood between these two men and lengthy winning streaks coming into the bout, this world title fight is going to be awesome to watch. I expect both men to bring their “A-games” and push it to the limits. I wouldn’t be surprised if this turned into a five-round war.

As for the betting lines, I wouldn’t be surprised if the gap shrinks between them as we get closer to the fight date. Covington’s trash-talking will help lower the odds some. Plus, the more that MMA experts pick Colby to win, the more of an effect it will have on the odds.

At this point, Covington offers value at +145. If you believe Colby will win, now is a good time to wager on him. I will wait on Usman to see if his odds come down some.

UFC Featherweight Championship Fight

  • (c)Max Holloway (-170)
  • Alexander Volkanovski (+150)

One of my favorite champions Max Holloway (21-4) steps back into the octagon to defend his title against the ferocious No. 1 contender Alexander Volkanovski (20-1).

Volkanovski opened with +150 odds and still floats in the range of +130 to +153. He’s on a 17 fight win streak, which includes going 7-0 inside the octagon. Volkanovski last fought in May and soundly beat Jose Aldo. Before that, he TKO’d Chad Mendes.

Volkanovski will be the bulkier fighter and has the power to push around the champ. He’s become a force to be reckoned with in the featherweight division and could be Holloway’s toughest fight to date.

Holloway is going to go down as the greatest featherweight of all time. His resume is a hit list of some of the sport’s top names like Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo, Jeremy Stephens, Anthony Pettis and Charles Oliveira. The champ opened at -200, but can be found anywhere from -159 to -189.

His odds have dropped slightly, and they could drop a little bit more as we get closer to the event. Holloway last fought in July and dominated Frankie Edgar. It was an excellent performance after losing in April to Dustin Poirier. Holloway went up to the lightweight division to compete for the interim belt.

In this fight, the champ will have a height advantage and is the better pure striker between the two. The challenger offers value at this point, but the champ needs to have odds below -150 to offer any real betting value. I would wait on taking Holloway right now, but Volkanovski is worth a wager if you think he will win.

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Fight

  • (c)Amanda Nunes (-310)
  • Germaine de Randamie (+255)

The “baddest woman on the planet” Amanda “Lioness” Nunes (18-4) steps back inside the octagon to defend her bantamweight title against the No. 1 contender Germaine de Randamie (9-3). This is a rematch from their first fight in 2013 when Nunes won via 1st round TKO.

GDR opened as a +225 underdog and has seen her odds go up as high as +263. Her lines range anywhere from +263 down to +205. If you think she will win, then go with the higher moneyline.

GDR last fought in July and did quick work of the previously unbeaten Aspen Ladd via TKO 16 seconds into their fight. GDR has won five straight fights since her loss to Nunes six years ago. Her last three wins have come against Top 6 ranked women in the division. GDR is a fearless striker with a championship pedigree.

Nunes has also beaten all of the top-ranked women in the flyweight division. However, her resume is even more impressive. She handed Justino her first loss in 13 years, defeated the flyweight champion twice Valentina Schevchenko, crushed former champ Holly Holm, and ended Ronda Rousey’s career.

Nunes opened as a -303 favorite and has seen her odds range anywhere from -278 to -310. Nunes has won nine straight fights but hasn’t always been the favorite in these contests. She was an underdog to Justino, Shevchenko both times, Rousey, Tate and McCann.

Nunes was the underdog in this first matchup as GDR closed at -170 odds, and Nunes was -105. Nunes saw her odds as high as +140 before their first time these two met inside the octagon.

For this contest, I think the odds are pretty accurate. In fact, of all three title fights, I believe online betting sites got this one right. Nunes is the best women’s fighter in the world today and the greatest of all-time. I don’t see these odds moving much further than what we see now.

Shop around for Nunes odds to get them as low as possible. As for GDR, she’s a risky flier now and the day of the fight.

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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