On Saturday, August 15th, the UFC will be live from their APEX center for UFC 252: Miocic vs Cormier III. This PPV is headlined by a trilogy fight for the UFC heavyweight title as Stipe Miocic defends his belt against former champ Daniel Cormier.
Before we get to the main card, we need to focus on the six fight preliminary card. The main fight for the UFC 252 prelims is Jim Miller vs Vinc Pichel. Other notable fighters on the prelims are Herbert Burns, Felice Herrig, and TJ Brown. The exciting action begins at 6PM ET on ESPN and ESPN+.
UFC betting sites have released their lines for the entire UFC 252 preliminary card. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, identify any betting value or potential upsets, and hit these predictions with some ground and pound.
Christopher Daukaus is making his UFC debut this weekend. He was set to be in a title fight for CFFC, but jumped at the chance to fight in the UFC instead. Chris is also the older brother of UFC middleweight Kyle Daukaus.
He’s 6-1 in his last seven fights spanning across four different promotions. Seven of his eight wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s only gone the distance in one fight.
Porter is 4-1 in his last five fights with the lone loss coming via DQ. All four of those wins have been via stoppage. Eight of his nine pro wins are via stoppage with four wins apiece for TKO/KO and submissions. He’s also 1-0 when going the distance.
This heavyweight showdown between newcomers is a tough one to pick. The two combatants are closer on paper than what oddsmakers have them at. And, neither man has been active in the past 11-to-12 months.
I think the better play is on the Over/Under set at 1.5 rounds. I believe they will get out of the first round and flirt with going into the 3rd. I’m taking the Over (-125) for this contest. However, I agree with online sportsbooks that this fight will end inside the distance (-320).
With that said, I am going with Daukaus to pull off the mild upset and win via TKO/KO in this fight. Porter does have two TKO/KO losses in his career.
Christopher Daukaus vs Parker Porter –Daukaus (+125)
Over 1.5 rounds (-125)
Fight ends inside the distance (-320)
Daukaus wins inside the distance (+205)
TJ Brown vs Danny Chavez
TJ Brown (-170)
Danny Chavez (+150)
Over (-130)/Under (+100) 2.5 rounds
In the final fight of UFC 252’s early prelims portion, TJ Brown takes on newcomer Danny Chavez.
Chavez fought last month and won via 1st round KO. He’s on a three fight win streak with all victories coming by way of TKO/KO. However, those are the only knockout wins in his career. His other seven victories have come via decision. He’s 7-2 when going the distance.
TJ Brown is making his second trip inside the octagon having lost his UFC debut via 2nd round to Jordan Griffin in February. He earned a contract via winning on DWCS a year ago. 13 of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of submission. He’s 1-1 when going the distance.
You have one fighter who goes to the distance most of the time (Chavez) and one fighter (Brown) who hardly ever goes the distance. Which one’s trend will continue?
I’m not impressed with what I’ve seen from Chavez. Brown recently lost to Griffin, but I’ve seen more potential from him than Chavez over their last few fights. I think Brown is going to get this fight to the mat and get the submission victory. Chavez hasn’t fought anyone of this caliber.
I believe Brown’s grappling will be too much for Chavez to handle. Additionally, Chavez is not a striker that will put any fear into his opponents. I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds (+100) in this one and I also don’t see the fight going the distance (-130).
TJ Brown vs Danny Chavez –Brown (-170)
Over 2.5 rounds (+100)
Fight doesn’t go the distance (-130)
Brown inside the distance (+210)
Felice Herrig vs Virna Jandiroba
Felice Herrig (+255)
Virna Jandiroba (-310)
Over (-255)/Under (+195) 2.5 rounds
The 15th ranked strawweight Felice Herrig is one of the largest underdogs for the entire UFC 252 fight card. She’s been with the UFC for almost six years and has gone 5-3 inside the octagon.
Herrig has dropped two fights in a row and hasn’t competed since October 2018. She was out of action all last year with a torn ACL. Herrig’s recent losses snapped a four fight win streak, which saw her establish herself within the division.
Five of Herrig’s 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. She’s 9-8 when going the distance.
Virna Jandiroba is 1-1 inside the octagon having fought last December and winning via 2nd round decision. She suffered a loss in her UFC debut 16 months ago, which was the first defeat of her career. 12 of her 15 pro wins have come via submission. She’s 3-1 when going the distance.
It’s hard to feel comfortable with either fighter in this contest. Jandiroba offers no value and has odds that are slightly overvalued. Herrig hasn’t fought in two years and is coming off a torn ACL. I would prefer not to pick a moneyline for either of these combatants. The smart and safe play is on Jandiroba to win.
I see more betting potential with other wagers available for this contest. The Over/Under is set at 2.5 rounds and I see this fight going over that mark (-255). I also see this contest going the distance (-210). 17 of Herrig’s 22 pro fights have gone the full three rounds.
With that said, I’m taking Jandiroba to win this fight via decision. Herrig has never been stopped before. And, she’s gone up against some tough competition throughout her career especially inside the octagon. Jandiroba winning via decision (-110) offers the best value for this bout.
Felice Herrig vs Virna Jandiroba –Jandiroba (-310)
Over 2.5 rounds (-255)
Fight goes the distance (-210)
Jandiroba wins via decision (-110)
Herbert Burns vs Daniel Pineda
Herbert Burns (-250)
Daniel Pineda (+210)
Over (+100)/Under (-130) 1.5 rounds
For Pineda, Saturday’s event marks his second stint with the company. He parted ways with the UFC in May 2014. Pineda has 3-4 record inside the octagon. He’s also fought in LFA and Bellator where he went 1-2.
All 26 of his wins have come via stoppage with 18 by way of submission. He’s 0-5 when going the full three rounds in a fight.
Herbert Burns is a sizable betting favorite and enters this contest on a five fight win streak. He debuted with the UFC in January and won via 1st round KO. Burns followed that up with a 1st round submission win over Evan Dunham in June.
9 of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. He’s 2-2 when going the full distance in a fight. This fight is nothing more than another stepping stone for Burns, the brother of Durinho, to win.
Burns is two inches taller, has a three inch reach advantage, and is the better overall athlete. He will be able to handle anything Pineda throws at him. If the fight goes to the mat, Burns will outmuscle Pineda and gain the advantage there as well.
This fight is heavily favored to end inside the distance (-365). The O/U is set at 1.5 rounds with the Under favored at -130 odds. I don’t see this contest ending in the 1st round since they’re both proficient on the mat. I’m going with the Over at +100 odds.
Herbert Burns vs Daniel Pineda –Burns (-250)
Over 1.5 rounds (+100)
Fight doesn’t go the distance (-365)
Burns wins inside the distance (-175)
Livinha Souza vs Ashley Yoder
Livinha Souza (-145)
Ashley Yoder (+125)
Over (-370)/Under (+280) 2.5 rounds
Ashley Yoder, who has one of my favorite nicknames in all of sports “The Spider Monkey,” is looking to bounce back from a loss in her last fight which was 10 months ago. She lost via split decision to Randa Markos. Four of her seven pro wins have come via submission. She’s 3-5 when going to a decision.
Livinha Souza is returning to the octagon for the first time in 13 months. She’s 2-1 in the UFC and has won four of her last five fights. 10 of her 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight wins via submission. She’s 3-2 when going to a decision.
Souza is a former Invicta FC strawweight champion and looks like a more complete fighter than Yoder. She’s a strong grappler that should be able to takedown Yoder. However, The Spider Monkey has never been stopped in her career. Yet, she seems to be one step below the top fighters in the division.
This fight will go Over 2.5 rounds (-370) and go the distance (-320). Three of Souza’s last four fights have gone the distance including two in a row. Yoder has gone the distance in eight of her 12 pro fights including six fights in a row.
Livinha Souza vs Ashley Yoder –Souza (-145)
Over 2.5 rounds (-370)
Fight goes the distance (-320)
Souza wins via decision (+110)
Jim Miller vs Vinc Pichel
Jim Miller (-105)
Vinc Pichel (-115)
Over (-120)/Under (-110) 2.5 rounds
Two veterans of the fight game square off in a lightweight bout as the main event of UFC 252’s preliminary card. This contest was added last week as Miller will be making his second straight short notice fight.
Jim Miller is the very slight underdog and has been with the UFC since 2008. He’s currently 21-13, 1 NC inside the octagon and 3-1 in his last four fights. This stretch has rejuvenated his career as many thought he was done two years ago.
Miller last fought in June 2020 and defeated Roosevelt Roberts via 1st round submission. He also fought in February and lost via unanimous decision to Scott Holtzman. Miller has a strong grappling game and drops bombs with his punches.
22 of his 32 pro wins have come via stoppage with 18 by way of submission. He’s 10-9 when going the distance in a fight.
Pichel has been with the UFC since 2012. However, due to injuries, he’s fought just seven times in the octagon. Pichel does have a 5-2 record with the UFC. His last bout came in June 2019 as he also defeated Roosevelt Roberts.
Eight of Pichel’s 12 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 4-0 when going the distance. He’s gone to the judges in three of his seven UFC fights.
Pichel is tough and a hard hitter, but it’s maddening just how inactive he has been in his UFC career. Miller’s best chance is to get this fight to the mat. I don’t see Pichel being as good of a striker as Dan Hooker, who KO’d miller over two years ago. Miller’s only other TKO/KO loss came against Donald Cerrone in 2014.
I’m taking Miller to win this fight. I believe he can get Pichel to the mat and force “From Hell” to tap out. I don’t see this contest going the distance (-140). I also believe it will come in Under 2.5 rounds (-110). I believe Miller will get the submission win by the late-second round.
Pichel lost via submission two fights ago. Although tough to take down, I believe Miller will get the job done and make history by setting the all-time record for most UFC fights at 36.
Jim Miller vs Vinc Pichel –Miller (-105)
Under 2.5 rounds (-110)
Fight ends inside the distance (-140)
Miller wins inside the distance (+185)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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