UFC 269 Preliminary Card Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

By in MMA on
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On Saturday, December 11th, the UFC returns to PPV with UFC 269 live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This will be the promotion’s last major show of the year and it’s a loaded lineup.

In total, there are 15 fights scheduled for UFC 269. However, this betting preview will focus solely on the huge 10 bout preliminary card that is stacked with big names. In fact, the prelim portion of UFC 269 is as good as just about any Fight Night event in the last few months.

The featured prelim bout is a Top 10 featherweight clash between Josh Emmett and Dan Ige. But there are other prelim matchups that have fans just as excited like: Dominick Cruz vs. Pedro Munhoz, Agusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa, and a Top 10 flyweight bout between Alex Perez and Matt Schnell to name a few.

The opening portion of prelims begins at 6pm ET on ESPN+ with the second portion beginning at 8pm ET.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC 269 Preliminary Card betting odds and kick the front leg of these predictions right out from under them.

Gillian Robertson vs. Priscila Cachoeira

  • Gillian Robertson (-400)
  • Priscila Cachoeira (+300)
  • Over (+120)/Under (-150) 2.5 rounds

Priscila Cachoeira comes into this matchup as a huge underdog. She’s the second largest underdog for the entire UFC 269 event according to UFC betting sites.

Cachoeira started off her career going 8-0 before joining the UFC in February 2018 where she promptly lost her first three fights which were against Valentina Shevchenko, Molly McMann, and Luana Carolina.

In February 2020, Priscila was able to snap the losing streak by defeating Shana Dobson via 1st round KO in 40 seconds. She followed that u with a 2nd round TKO win over Gina Mazany in May 2021, which was her most recent bout.

Six of her 10 pro wins have come via stoppage. She’s 4-2 when going the distance.

Gillian Robertson has been with the UFC for five years now and has compiled a 6-4 record inside the octagon. Robertson is 2-3 in her last five bouts.

She comes into this bout on a two fight skid with decision losses to Miranda Maverick and Taila Santos. Prior to that, she had won two fights in a row with victories over Poliana Botelho and Cortney Casey.

Seven of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. She’s 2-4 when going the distance.

I like for this bout to finish inside the distance (-155) and Under 2.5 rounds (-150). I believe Robertson has the tools to defeat Cachoeira and do so via submission.

Gillian has proven with her six submission wins that she’s a very talented submission artist. Cachoeira has showed that she still has deficiencies in her ground game.

Take Robertson to win via submission in the second round.

Gillian Robertson vs. Priscila Cachoeira –Robertson (-400)

Under 2.5 rounds (-150)

Fight ends inside the distance (-155)

Robertson wins inside the distance (-105)

Randy Costa vs. Tony Kelley

  • Randy Costa (-180)
  • Tony Kelley (+155)
  • Over (-140)/Under (+110) 1.5 rounds

After starting off 5-0, Kelley has gone 2-2 in his last four fights which includes going 1-1 inside the octagon.

Kelley made his UFC debut in August 2020 and lost via decision to Kai Kamaka III. He followed that up with a decision win over Ali AlQaisi in October 2020. It’s been 14 months since Kelley has last fought.

Five of his seven pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of submission. He’s 2-2 when going the distance.

Randy Costa began his MMA career going 4-0 with all four fights in Cage Titans FC. He debuted in the UFC in April 2019 and lost to Brandon Davis via 2nd round submission.

Costa got his first UFC win in October 2019 with a 1st round TKO victory over Boston Salmon and then followed that up with a 1st round KO over Journey Newson in September 2020.

However, that two fight winning streak came to a halt in July 2021 when he ate a 2nd round TKO loss from Adrian Yanez. Randy is 2-2 inside the octagon.

All six of his pro wins have come via TKO/KO. Both of his losses have come via stoppage.

Combined, these two men have gone the distance in four of their 17 total fights. Costa has never gone the distance and Kelley has never been stopped before. So, one of those things will change on Saturday. More than likely, it’s Kelley getting stopped.

I don’t see “Prime Time” being able to outstrike or outlast Costa in this matchup. Instead, I see “The Zohan” coming out aggressively in the opening round, tagging Kelley numerous times, and finally putting him away before the round ends.

So, take the Under 1.5 rounds (+110) and for the fight to end inside the distance (-110).

Randy Costa vs. Tony Kelley –Costa (-180)

Under 1.5 rounds (+110)

Fight ends inside the distance (-220)

Costa wins inside the distance (-110)

Ryan Hall vs. Darrick Minner

  • Ryan Hall (-200)
  • Darrick Minner (+170)
  • Over (+105)/Under (-125) 2.5 rounds

It took Darrick Minner 34 pro fights and eight years before he made his way to the UFC. A failed DWCS appearance in August 2019 set him back another year before the UFC came calling.

Minner debuted in February 2020, but lost to Grant Dawson via 2nd round submission. He turned things around to pick up two victories in a row with a 1st round submission over T.J. Laramie in September 2020 and decision against Charles Rosa in February 2021.

The two fight winning streak came to a crashing halt when he lost via 2nd round TKO to Darren Elkins in July 2021. Minner is 2-2 inside the octagon, but 4-2 in his last six pro bouts.

23 of his 26 pro wins have come via stoppage with 22 by way of submission. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.

Hall made his way to the UFC where he competed on TUF 22 and TUF 25 and picked up decision wins over Artem Lobov and Gray Maynard.

Ryan took two years off before returning in December 2018 to beat B.J. Penn via 1st round submission. He followed that up with a decision victory over Darren Elkins in July 2019.

Another two year hiatus saw Hall return in July 2021, but this time the layoff didn’t help him as he lost to Ilia Topuria via 1st round KO. Hall is 4-1 inside the octagon.

Five of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of submission. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.

Both men are more comfortable on the mat and I expect this fight to play out on the canvas. However, I see Minner being overconfident in his grappling skills, which will get him in trouble with Hall who’s BJJ is superior to Darrick’s ground game.

With that said, I’m taking this fight to end Under 2.5 rounds (-125) and inside the distance (-135) as Hall picks up the submission victory by the midpoint of the fight.

Ryan Hall vs. Darrick Minner –Hall (-200)

Under 2.5 rounds (-125)

Fight ends inside the distance (-135)

Hall wins inside the distance (+135)

Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell

  • Alex Perez (-310)
  • Matt Schnell (+260)
  • Over (-165)/Under (+135) 2.5 rounds

This bout is a battle of Top 10 flyweights with the #9 Matt Schnell taking on the #4 Alex Perez.

Matt Schnell is a large underdog for his matchup with Perez, but he’s definitely skilled enough to pull off the upset.

Schnell started off his UFC career going 0-2 with TKO/KO losses to Rob Font and Hector Sandoval. He then rallied to pull off four straight wins with victories over Marko Beltran, Naoki Inoue, Louis Smolka, and Jordan Espinosa.

Following that winning streak, “Danger” has gone 1-2 in his last three fights with losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Rogerio Bontorin. His lone win was a split decision victory over Tyson Nam in January 2021. The loss to Bontorin was his most recent bout and that came in May 2021.

10 of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. He’s 4-2 when going the distance.

A 14-2 run brought Perez to the DWCS in August 2017 where he won via 1st round submission over Kevin Gray. Alex then opened up his UFC tenure going 3-0 before losing to Joseph Benavidez via 1st round TKO in November 2018.

Following that loss, Perez won three straight fights over Mark De La Rosa, Jordan Espinosa and Jussier Formiga before losing to Deiveson Figueiredo in November 2020 via 1st round submission. Alex hasn’t competed since that bout.

Perez is 6-2 inside the octagon. 12 of his 24 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of submission. He’s 12-1 when going the distance.

This fight does have multiple potential outcomes. One scenario is Schnell getting the fight to the mat and locking in a submission win. A second scenario is Perez taking out his foe via TKO. The third scenario is a decision win for one of the combatants.

With that said, I’m leaning towards Perez picking up the TKO victory. I like his striking skills and feel they are better than Schnell’s. I believe he will pick apart Schnell, wear him down, and eventually finish him off with a TKO Under 2.5 rounds (+135) and inside the distance (+110).

Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell –Perez (-310)

Under 2.5 rounds (+135)

Fight ends inside the distance (+110)

Perez wins inside the distance (+170)

Perez wins via TKO/KO (+300)

Miranda Maverick vs. Erin Blanchfield

  • Miranda Maverick (-140)
  • Erin Blanchfield (+120)
  • Over (-325)/Under (+250) 2.5 rounds

Despite Miranda Maverick being ranked 13th in the division and Erin Blanchfield being unranked, this really is a tossup fight and the odds should be even instead of Maverick being the slight favorite. That also means it’s going to be a lot harder to pick a winner.

Blanchfield had seven pro fights before debuting for the UFC three months ago where she beat Sarah Alpar via unanimous decision.

Prior to joining the UFC, Erin went 6-1 with a 4-1 record in Invicta FC. She enters this weekend’s clash having won four straight fights with two via stoppage.

Three of her seven pro wins have come via stoppage with two by way of TKO/KO. She’s 4-1 when going the distance.

Maverick was also a former member of Invicta FC where she went 6-2 before joining the UFC 14 months ago. Miranda had a successful debut as she defeated Liana Jojua via 1st round TKO.

Maverick followed that up with a decision win over Gillian Robertson in March 2021. As seen above, Robertson is also on the UFC 269 preliminary card. Miranda last competed in July 2021, but lost via split decision to Maycee Barber.

Six of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. She’s 3-3 when going the distance.

I definitely see this bout going Over 2.5 rounds (-310) and the full distance (-265). Miranda has gone to a decision in three of her last four bouts including two in a row. Blanchfield has gone the distance in five of her last seven bouts including two in a row.

Maverick has the size and wrestling advantages but Blanchfield is better in the clinch and with submissions. So, both women have strengths that could help them in this matchup. And, both have weaknesses that could be exploited.

With that said, I flipped a coin and will take Maverick to win via split decision. This bout could certainly go either way. The safe plays are the distance in this matchup.

Miranda Maverick vs. Erin Blanchfield –Maverick (-140)

Over 2.5 rounds (-310)

Fight goes the distance (-265)

Maverick wins via decision (+135)

Andre Muniz vs. Eryk Anders

  • Andre Muniz (-140)
  • Eryk Anders (+120)
  • Over (-150)/Under (+120) 1.5 rounds

This middleweight contest will close out the first portion of preliminary fights as the 15th ranked Andre Muniz takes on the unranked Eryk Anders.

Eryk Anders started of his career going 8-0 before joining the UFC in the summer of 2017. He began his tenure inside the octagon going 3-1 before losing three in a row to Thiago Santos, Elias Theodorou, and Khalil Rountree.

He then won two in a row with victories against Vinicius Moreira and Gerald Meerschaert in 2019. A loss to Jotko in May 2020 snapped his winning streak.

Anders last two fights have been against Darren Stewart this year. The first bout in March ended via illegal knee and eventually ruled a No Contest. The rematch took place in June 2021 and Anders won via decision. He’s 3-1 with 1 NC in his last four UFC bouts.

Nine of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-4 when going the distance.

Andre Muniz enters this bout on a seven fight winning streak, which includes going 3-0 inside the octagon. Muniz made two appearances on DWCS in 2018 and 2019 where he won both fights.

That eventually led “Sergipano” to the octagon in November 2019 where he beat Antonio Arroyo via decision. Andre followed that up with a 1st round submission win over Bartosz Fabinski in September 2020.

His most recent bout was in May 2021 where he beat Ronaldo Souza via 1st round submission, which was a very impressive win.

18 of his 21 pro wins have come via stoppage with 14 by way of submission. He’s 3-0 when going the distance.

Anders has the advantage in striking, but I don’t see Eryk being able to keep the fight upright. Instead, Muniz will drag him to the mat and force “Ya Boi” to tap out.

Take the Over 1.5 rounds (-150), but for the fight to end inside the distance (-245). Muniz has gone the distance just three times in his pro career.

Andre Muniz vs. Eryk Anders –Muniz (-140)

Over 1.5 rounds (-150)

Fight ends inside the distance (-245)

Muniz wins inside the distance (+115)

Bruno Silva vs. Jordan Wright

  • Bruno Silva (-350)
  • Jordan Wright (+285)
  • Over (+120)/Under (-150) 1.5 rounds

Jordan Wright is a huge underdog for this middleweight contest as he looks to put together another winning streak in his career.

Wright started off 9-0 and appeared on DWCS in June 2018. However that bout has been ruled a NC by the NSAC. Jordan then took a fight in LFA where he picked up a 2nd round TKO win before debuting with the UFC in August 2020.

Wright won his debut via 1st round TKO against Isaac Villanueva. His second octagon appearance didn’t go so well as he ended up losing via 2nd round KO to Joaquin Buckley.

Wright bounced back in May 2021 with a 1st round TKO victory over Jamie Pickett to improve his UFC record to 2-1. All 12 of his wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s never gone the distance in a fight.

Bruno Silva enters this weekend’s clash on a six fight winning streak that includes two wins in M-1 and going 2-0 in the UFC.

He debuted with the UFC in June 2019 and beat Wellington Turman via 1st round KO. Silva followed that up with a 3rd round TKO win over Andrew Sanchez in October 2021. All six of his wins during this streak have come via TKO/KO.

18 of Silva’s 21 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-0 when going the distance. All five of his pro losses have come via submission.

Combined, these two men have gone the distance in just three of 40 pro fights. So, take this bout to end inside the distance (-400). Also, these two men have combined to participate in 29 fights that have ended in the 1st round. Go with the Under 1.5 rounds (-150) as well.

This bout has two possible scenarios: Silva wins in the 1st round via TKO/KO or Wright wins via submission.

With that said, I’m taking Silva to score the TKO/KO victory. Wright’s lone loss came via TKO/KO to Buckley in his second UFC fight and it ended in Under 1.5 rounds.

Bruno Silva vs. Jordan Wright –Silva (-350)

Under 1.5 rounds (-150)

Fight ends inside the distance (-400)

Silva wins inside the distance (-180)

Silva wins via TKO/KO (-145)

Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa

  • Augusto Sakai (-110)
  • Tai Tuivasa (-115)
  • Over (-155)/Under (+125) 1.5 rounds

This heavyweight fight is a close contest on paper and with the online betting sites.

The 11th ranked Augusto Sakai enters as the slight underdog and on a two fight losing streak where he’s dropped bouts to via TKO to Alistair Overeem in September 2020 and Jairzinho Rozenstruik in June 2021.

Prior to those two losses, Augusto had won six fights in a row. He appeared on DWCS in August 2018 and debuted inside the octagon in September 2018.

Sakai won his first four UFC bouts as he picked up victories over Chase Shearman, Andrei Arlovski, Marcin Tybura and Blagoy Ivanov.

11 of his 15 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 4-1-1 when going the distance.

Tai Tuivasa is 6-3 inside the octagon and has made the most of his second stint with the UFC. He started off 3-0 with wins over Rashad Coulter, Cyril Asker and Andrei Arlovski. Unfortunately, by the end of 2018, Tai would go on a three fight losing streak.

Those three losses came to Junior dos Santos, Blagoy Ivanov, and Sergey Spivak. After the Spivak loss in October 2019, Tai was released.

The UFC decided to bring him back a year later and he’s made the most of his second run with the promotion. Since his return in October 2020, Tuivasa has gone 3-0 with all three wins coming via TKO/KO against Stefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker and Greg Hardy.

11 of his 12 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 1-1 when going the distance.

This really is a tough fight to predict as both men have the power to finish off their opponent. Combined, these two men have 22 TKO/KO wins in 33 pro fights. Additionally, both men have suffered TKO/KO losses in their careers.

Let’s start with the easy wagers first, take the Over 1.5 rounds (-155) and for the fight to end inside the distance (-220).

Tuivasa has never lost in Under 1.5 rounds and Sakai has suffered a loss under that mark just once in his career, so there’s a great chance we see the Over in this matchup.

As for the winner, this prediction is a tough one but I’m taking Tai Tuivasa to pick up the TKO/KO win. I believe he’s on a roll right now and will outslug Sakai in a fight that will be filled with fireworks until it ends. Tai will crack the Top 15 rankings following this victory.

Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa –Tuivasa (-115)

Over 1.5 rounds (-155)

Fight ends inside the distance (-220)

Tuivasa wins inside the distance (+125)

Tuivasa wins via TKO/KO (+300)

Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz

  • Pedro Munhoz (-110)
  • Dominick Cruz (-110)
  • Over (-210)/Under (+170) 2.5 rounds

Here’s a bout that’s worthy of a main card spot as it features Top 10 ranked bantamweights as #8 Pedro Munhoz takes on #10 Dominik Cruz. The online betting sites basically have this fight as even.

Pedro Munhoz has been with the UFC for nearly eight years and has compiled a 9-6 record inside the octagon. Unfortunately, he enters this weekend’s clash in a bit of a slump. Pedro has gone 1-3 in his last four bouts.

After a three fight winning streak, Munhoz dropped two in a row beginning with a decision loss to Aljamain Sterling in June 2019. He then came out on the wrong side of a split decision loss to Frankie Edgar in August 2020.

Over the last four bouts, Munhoz’s lone win came against Jimmie Rivera in February 2021 via unanimous decision. His most recent fight came against Jose Aldo in August 2021 where he lost via decision. Since then, Aldo has worked his way into title contention, while Munhoz is looking to get a big win.

13 of his last 19 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. He’s 6-6 when going the distance.

After a 3 ½ year hiatus, Dominick Cruz returned to the octagon to face Henry Cejudo. He ended up losing via 2nd round TKO which seemed to be a questionable stoppage by the ref at the time. There was only two seconds left in the round and Cruz didn’t appear to be in dire danger.

Cruz’s next fight came in March 2021 where he beat Casey Kenney via split decision. Eight of his 23 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by TKO/KO. He’s 15-1 when going the distance.

Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-210) and for the fight to go the full 15 minutes (-165). 16 of Cruz’s 26 pro bouts have gone the distance. Munhoz has gone the distance in four straight bouts.

Munhoz has struggled against premiere strikers like Aldo and Edgar in the last 16 months. I expect him to struggle at times against Cruz this weekend as well. I like for Cruz to win this bout due to landing more strikes and finishing off the rounds strong.

It could be a split decision victory for Cruz, but either way, “The Dominator” picks up another win.

Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz –Cruz (-110)

Over 2.5 rounds (-210)

Fight goes the distance (-165)

Cruz wins via decision (+190)

Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige

  • Josh Emmett (-160)
  • Dan Ige (+140)
  • Over (-205)/Under (+165) 2.5 rounds

The featured bout for the UFC 269 preliminary card is a Top 10 featherweight fight as the 7th ranked Josh Emmett takes on the 9th ranked Dan Ige. This is a tough fight for me to predict because I like both men. Nevertheless, it will definitely be an entertaining, action packed contest.

Dan Ige comes in as the underdog with a 1-2 record in his last three bouts. Ige debuted for the UFC in the beginning of 2018 after a successful appearance on DWCS in July 2017.

Unfortunately, he dropped his first UFC fight via decision to Julio Arce. However, he would then go on a six fight winning streak which included split decision victories over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barbosa.

In July 2020, Ige main evented his first ever UFC card when he took on Calvin Kattar in a five round war that saw Dan lose via decision. Yet, he bounced back again with a 1st round KO victory over Gavin Tucker in just 22 seconds.

That would set up Ige for another main event fight as he battled The Korean Zombie in June 2021. Ige would once again lose via decision.

Nine of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 6-4 when going the distance.

Emmett debuted with the UFC in May 2016 and got off to a 4-1 start with wins over Tuck, Holtzman, Arantes and Lamas. He then lost to Jeremy Stephens in February 2018. However, since then, Emmett has gone 3-0.

Josh has defeated Michael Johnson via 3rd round KO, Mirsad Bektic via 1st round TKO and Shane Burgos via decision. Emmett took time off since his June 2020 bout against Burgos.

Eight of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 8-1 when going the distance.

I like for this bout to go Over 2.5 rounds (-205) and the full 15 minutes (-165). Emmett has gone the distance in five of his nine UFC bouts. Ige has gone the distance in 10 of his 19 pro bouts and five of his last six fights. Plus, Dan has never been stopped.

I don’t see Ige getting stopped in this bout on Saturday either. Yet, I am taking Josh Emmett to win via split decision. Emmett fights out of my hometown of Sacramento and I’m making this prediction based on emotions and not logic.

Josh Emmett vs. Dan Ige –Emmett (-160)

Over 2.5 rounds (-205)

Fight goes the distance (-165)

Emmett wins via decision (+165)

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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