On Saturday, May 18th, the UFC will be live from the Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, New York, for UFC Fight Night 152: dos Anjos vs Lee also known as UFC on ESPN+ 10. This is the first official UFC show held in Rochester and it features a welterweight battle between two of the division’s top competitors Kevin Lee and former UFC lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos.
The co-main event was set to feature two solid welterweights looking for a huge divisional win, but Neil Magny was forced out of the fight with less than a week until the event. This definitely shook up the overall card and Vicente Luque will now have to take on a newcomer. In total, there are at least a dozen fights scheduled for this Rochester MMA show. The entire event will be streamed live on ESPN+ with the prelims beginning at 5 PM ET and the main card starting at 8 PM ET.
UFC betting sites have released their odds for the full slate of fights. Let’s step inside the betting octagon and examine these current betting lines, identify possible betting value or upsets, and KO our picks.
UFC Fight Night 152 Prelims
The preliminary card features at least 6 fights and is set to stream on ESPN+ beginning at 5 PM ET.
Julio Arce (15-3) vs Julian Erosa (22-7)
Julio Arce (-575)
Julian Erosa (+445)
Arce comes into this bout as the biggest betting favorite of the night. He’s had three fights with the UFC and has gone 2-1. However, that doesn’t count his victory on DWTNCS in August 2017. Arce last fought in November 2018, and lost via Split Decision to Sheymon Moraes. Some fans and pundits believe that Arce actually won that fight.
In his 15 pro fights, seven wins have come via Decision and another five have come via submission. Arce has a solid all-around fight game. He can stand up and strike, he has a good takedown defense, and he’s proficient on the mat. Those descriptions can’t be said about his opponent this weekend.
Julian Erosa comes into this contest having lost both of his UFC fights. He earned a shot with the promotion after winning his DWTNCS fight 11 months ago. However, he was taken out via KO in his UFC debut last November and then lost in March via UD. For his career, 19 of his 22 pro wins have come via stoppage. 10 of those 19 wins have come via KO/TKO. So, he does have some pop in his punches.
Erosa will have at least four inches of height and reach advantage over Julio Arce. However, that probably won’t be enough for “Juicy J” to get the win.
Although Erosa has the power to end a fight, he also has shown a suspect chin which has led to three KO/TKO losses in his career. I believe Arce can put away Erosa standing up or on the mat. MMA betting sites also feel that there’s a big difference in talent levels between these two fighters.
I’m taking Arce to win via TKO in the third round.
UFC Bet: Julio Arce (-575)
Zak Cummings (22-6) vs Trevin Giles (11-0)
Zak Cummings (+125)
Trevin Giles (-145)
Zak Cummings has participated in twice as many professional MMA fights as his opponent this weekend, but he’s the underdog. If this were at welterweight, I might say go with Cummings. However, it’s at middleweight and I’m just not convinced that Cummings can have a lot of success at this weight class. Zak is 3-2 in his last five UFC fights, with an overall record of 7-3 inside the octagon. That’s a solid record, but Cummings appears to lose against fighters that are more talented than him like Santiago Ponzinibbio and Gunnar Nelson.
Trevin Giles is undefeated in his pro MMA career and has won both of his UFC fights via knockout. Unfortunately, he hasn’t fought since December 2017. Giles took all last year off to further his career in law enforcement. Giles attended the police academy. Now that he’s back in the UFC, the promotion hasn’t done him any favors with this matchup.
Cummings commented on Giles’ time off from the UFC, as he believes that Giles will be prepared:
“I mean, you can look at it both ways. I don’t think he would have taken a fight if he wasn’t going to be prepared for it. I have had injuries that have kept me away that [amount of] time. It definitely takes a little time to get your bearing. I don’t fully believe in ring rust, but it takes a little while to find your timing. He went through the police academy which is pretty intensive. I know he wouldn’t have taken this fight if he wasn’t going to be ready and prepared.”
Never lacking confidence, Cummings also believes that he will win the fight. I tend to side with Giles in this one, but I do feel that Cummings offers betting value and is a candidate for the betting upset. With that said, I’m taking Giles to get the Decision win.
UFC Bet: Trevin Giles (-145)
Trevin Giles (-145)
Danny Roberts (-265)
Michel Pereira (+225)
Pereira comes in as a large underdog and rightfully so. UFC Fight Night 152 will be his UFC debut and he’s going up against a tough opponent. A large part of Pereira’s popularity has come from his 6-1 run in ROAD FC where he had a few highlight reels. Unfortunately, I don’t see those highlights coming in this fight or in the UFC.
Danny Roberts has been with the UFC for three-and-a-half years now. He’s gone 5-3 during his eight fights inside the octagon. Unfortunately, he’s coming off a submission loss to Claudio Henrique da Silva this March. It happened late in the fight and it was a mistake that he can certainly bounce back from. In his 16 pro wins, 12 have come via stoppage.
If you check out Michel Pereira’s highlights, they’re rather impressive. However, they’re done against inferior opponents in an inferior promotion. I highly doubt he will have the same success in the UFC. He’s a bit of a wild card in the cage and I just don’t have the confidence in him pulling off a win against a solid opponent.
I’m taking Roberts to win via TKO in the second round.
UFC Bet: Danny Roberts (-265)
Patrick Cummins (10-6) vs Ed Herman (23-14)
Patrick Cummins (-225)
Ed Herman (+190)
This matchup is rather underwhelming. Perhaps, the least exciting fight on the preliminary portion of the event. Both fighters come into this contest on losing streaks and each man needs a win to justify a spot in the UFC. According to online betting sites, Patrick Cummins will be the one to keep his job for another event.
Patrick Cummins made his UFC debut a little over five years ago and was plastered by Cormier just 79 seconds into the fight. Despite taking that fight on short notice, Cummins was no match for DC. However, he bounced back nicely with three straight wins before losing to OSP 14 months later. Since then, Cummins has gone 3-4 in his last seven fights. Patrick last fought in October 2018, and lost via submission in the first round. His UFC career record is 6-6.
Herman’s career UFC record is 10-10-1 but has lost three straight fights and appears to be on his way out of the company if he doesn’t pull out the victory. Ed Herman hasn’t won in over three years and has lost five of his last seven pro fights.
I think the betting odds are too high for Patrick Cummins. I don’t believe he’s shown more success than Herman over the last few years. With that said, I am taking Cummins to win this fight. It’s anyone’s guess as to how it will end.
UFC Bet: Patrick Cummins (-225)
Desmond Green (22-8) vs Charles Jourdain (9-1)
Desmond Green (-525)
Charles Jourdain (+410)
This fight wasn’t made until late April, and it was largely due to Green’s desperation to fight on this card. Desmond Green is from Rochester and is the second biggest betting favorite on the entire card.
He won his last fight which was in Marc and defeated Ross Pearson via TKO in the first round. However, Green is 2-3 in his last five fights and just 3-3 in his UFC career. 15 of Green’s 22 pro wins have come via Decision. He has the stamina to go the distance, but he lacks a ground game to balance out his striking prowess.
Jourdain is a huge underdog largely because this is his UFC debut. Charles has six KO/TKO wins in his nine pro victories. His highlights show a fighter with very capable striking and above average wrestling. His only loss was via Decision over a year ago. Since then, he’s gone 4-0. Jourdain is just 23 years old, but he captured championship gold in Canada’s TKO promotion.
If Jourdain can get this fight to the mat, he will have a solid shot at winning. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that the young Canadian fighter can do so. Although he’s fought at lightweight before, he appears to be better as a featherweight. Green is a natural lightweight.
I’m going to take Green to win this fight via Decision, but I do think Charles Jourdain is worthy of a flier. For those risk takers, he could be a candidate to pull off the biggest betting upset of the night.
UFC Bet: Desmond Green (-525)
Michael Trizano (8-0) vs Grant Dawson (13-1)
Michael Trizano (-138)
Grant Dawson (+118)
This has the makings of a very competitive fight. Trizano is the slight betting favorite as he’s undefeated for his career and 2-0 with the UFC. Michael Trizano, nicknamed “The Lone Wolf,” won TUF 27 last July and also defeated Luis Pena last November. However, both wins came via Split Decision. Four of his eight pro wins have come via the scorecards.
Grant Dawson is the slight underdog, but he’s also undefeated with the UFC. Dawson earned a contract with his DWTNCS win in August 2017 but was popped for a PED violation with USADA and missed all of 2018. However, he was allowed back in as he also used the Jon Jones pulsing defense. He fought in March against Julian Erosa, who’s fighting Arce on this show, and he won via UD. Dawson basically grinded out the win.
Both fighters will look to grind out wins in this fight. Dawson is confident that he can hand Trizano the first loss of his career. I’m not as confident as he is, but I do like Grant Dawson in this fight. I believe he can outwork Trizano to get the Decision win. I’m not sold on Trizano as his two Split Decision victories don’t impress me. Whichever fighter you choose to wager on, both offer betting value. For me, I like Dawson to win.
UFC Bet: Grant Dawson (+118)
Megan Anderson (9-3) vs Felicia Spencer (6-0)
Megan Anderson (-150)
Felicia Spencer (+130)
Newcomer Felicia Spencer is the current Invicta FC featherweight champ and she’s undefeated in her career. However, instead of defending her belt, she will debut in UFC Fight Night 152 this weekend and take on Megan Anderson is also a former Invicta FC featherweight champ. In fact, the two had a face-to-face confrontation in Invicta roughly a year ago. This is a fight that Spencer has wanted for a while and she feels that this could ultimately become a #1 contender’s match since there isn’t much depth in the division. Three of her six wins have come via submission.
Anderson won four straight fights and the Invicta FC featherweight belt before heading to the UFC 11 months ago. Unfortunately, she lost that fight via UD to Holly Holm. Six months later, Megan Anderson took on Cat Zingano in a fight that ended with Megan getting the TKO victory. However, it was because of her toe hitting Zingano in the eye and Cat not being able to continue the fight due to vision impairment.
Anderson is definitely a talented fighter, but I wouldn’t have put her at -150 odds. Spencer has accomplished just as much as Megan has in their respective careers but is still undefeated. Furthermore, that fight against Zingano shouldn’t have been a win for Anderson.
With that said, I’m taking Spencer to win this fight via Decision. Two of Anderson’s three losses have come via Decision. And, her third loss was due to submission. I believe Spencer’s best chance is to get this fight to the ground. Anderson is dangerous in the striking department.
Although I’m taking Spencer, Anderson can easily win this fight. It really is much closer than what the betting odds state.
UFC Bet: Felicia Spencer (+130)
UFC Fight Night 152 Main Card
The main card of the UFC Fight Night 152 event features a handful of intriguing fights and is set to begin at 8 PM ET.
Davi Ramos (9-2) vs Austin Hubbard (10-2)
Davi Ramos (-445)
Austin Hubbard (+375)
Austin Hubbard is making his UFC debut this weekend and going up against a really tough opponent, which is why the sports betting sites has Hubbard listed as a large betting underdog. However, Austin is a former LFA lightweight champion and Fightful reports that he has been training really hard to take on Ramos:
“We’ve been working what we call grappling boxing or anti-jiu-jitsu. A lot of shutdown spots in which I think is going to be very important in this fight, he’s a high level black belt. Obviously…me, I might catch him in a submission, but that’s not my game plan. So I think the shutdown jiu-jitsu is going to be very key in this fight, so luckily been training that the past couple of months. So it works out great for my favor in this fight that I got it polished and ready to go.”
For Davi, he’s won three straight fights and is slowly working his way up the food chain in the lightweight division. Ramos did lose his UFC debut in March 2017 but has been on a tear since then. Seven of his nine career wins have come via submission. He’s very dangerous on the mat and that’s why Hubbard has trained hard to prevent the takedowns.
Unfortunately, I don’t see Hubbard being able to TKO/KO Davi Ramos standing up. And I don’t see Hubbard being able to defend the takedown for all 3 rounds. At some point, Davi “The Tasmanian Devil,” will get the takedown and work his way into a submission victory.
UFC Bet: Davi Ramos (-445)
Charles Oliveira (26-8) vs Nik Lentz (30-9-2)
Charles Oliveira (-350)
Nik Lentz (+285)
This contest is a trilogy bout between two longstanding UFC fighters. Despite the large disparity in betting odds, this fight should be exciting.
Oliveira has won four straight fights since losing to Paul Felder in December 2017. He debuted with the UFC in August 2010 and has a career record of 14-8 with 1 NC inside the octagon. That 1 NC happened to bet the first fight between Oliveira and Lentz when Charles hit Nik with an illegal knee. For his career, 18 of Oliveira’s 26 wins have come via submission. Another six wins have come via KO/TKO, which means that Oliveira has won 24 of his 26 fights via stoppage.
For Lentz, he has won two straight fights since his UD loss to Teymur 11 months ago. Lentz looked good against Maynard in October and followed that up with a solid win over Holtzman three months ago. Lentz is a new man outside of the cage, which is due to the health of his family and marriage. It has helped him become a better fighter inside the cage. With that said, UFC states that Lentz is definitely looking forward to fighting Oliveira again and wants to beat him:
“I did not see this fight coming, but when they offered it to me, I was like, ‘Yeah, let’s do it. I’m going to beat him this time.’ You expect a rangy, lengthy kickboxer who is trying to do funky stuff off his back, but the guy is really strong and really athletic. As long as you know that ahead of time, you can prepare for it, but the first time you grab that guy, you don’t know where that s*** comes from because he doesn’t have a muscle on his body.”
Oliveira is five years younger than Lentz and also has both the height (two inches) and reach (six inches) advantages. This proved to be tough for Lentz in their second meeting when Oliveira won via third round submission back in May 2015. However, that fight was in the featherweight division and this one will be competed in the lightweight division, which is a weight that Lentz feels much more comfortable at.
Lentz has the wrestling and grappling skills to prevent Oliveira from getting the submission win this time. But does Lentz have the ability to overcome Oliveira’s length in the striking department? That’s the biggest concern I have.
I believe Lentz is definitely worthy of a flier as he could win this fight. With that said, I believe Oliveira’s striking will be the difference in this contest. I’m going with Charles “da Bronc” Oliveira to win via Split Decision.
UFC Bet: Charles Oliveira (-350)
Antonio Carlos Junior (10-2) vs Ian Heinisch (12-1)
Antonio Carlos Junior (-185)
Ian Heinisch (+160)
Ian “The Hurricane” Heinisch is a sizable underdog for this middleweight fight. He’s won four straight contests since his LFA loss nearly two years ago. Ian earned a UFC shot by winning on DWTNCS last July. He then upset Cezar Ferreira last November with a UD win. Heinisch fights with a “hurricane”-like style as he swarms his opponents with a frenzy of strikes and aggression. Half of his wins have gone the distance and there’s a good chance this one will as well.
Antonio Carlos Junior (ACJ), is a submission artist with elite BJJ skills. He also has the two-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage for this fight. However, he hasn’t fought in 13 months due to an injury. Prior to the injury, ACJ had won five straight fights and has a UFC record of 6-2 with one No Contest. Eight of his 10 pro wins have come via submission and the other two have come via decision.
This fight will come down to Heinisch’s standup game against ACJ’s mat skills. For Heinisch to win, he will need to close the distance on ACJ and his eight-inch reach. Fortunately, Junior isn’t known for his striking skills. From there, Heinisch needs to employ his takedown defense if he can’t finish the fight in a blitz. For ACJ, he needs to weather the storms and get this fight to the ground.
Heinisch does have solid wrestling skills, which will be needed to avoid a submission hold. I believe Ian’s skills on the ground are better than ACJ’s skills standing up. I’m going with the upset here. Ian Heinisch’s explosiveness standing up should dictate this fight. However, the longer it goes, the better chance ACJ has to win.
UFC Bet: Ian Heinisch (+160)
Aspen Ladd (7-0) vs Sijara Eubanks (4-2)
Aspen Ladd (-270)
Sijara Eubanks (+230)
Eubanks has won two straight fights since her loss to Aspen Ladd in January 2017. That fight took place with the Invicta FC promotion and Eubanks is definitely looking forward to this rematch:
“Sometimes you fight someone and beat them, then fighters tend to slack on the preparation. Rematching Aspen Ladd I lost the first one so it is just extra fuel. I have to do things differently. I’m in a new camp, new team so working even harder than before and focusing on the game plan. I’m excited to get this one back.”
Eubanks has moved back up to the 135-pound weight class due to the challenges of cutting weight and how it had a negative effect on her health. As a ranked fighter in the flyweight division, Eubanks wanted a Top 10 fighter in the bantamweight division. She jumped at the chance to fight Aspen Ladd when her name came up. Eubanks has two KO wins out of her four pro victories. Her other four fights have gone the distance and she’s 2-2 in those fights.
Since their first fight, Ladd has also gone 2-0. Both of these wins have come via TKO in the UFC. She last fought Tonya Evinger in October 2018 and won via first round TKO. Five of Ladd’s seven wins have come via TKO/KO. Her lone submission victory was against Eubanks in 2017. According to MMA News, Ladd had this to say about her opponent Eubanks:
“She’s a tough fight, we’ve both got a lot better since the first fight. Her striking’s definitely improved. I think like I have, she’s improved as a martial artist period. It seemed like she was she was dying to make [flyweight]. I was always curious [if she would move up] because we have fought before, I thought it might be something the UFC would be interested in doing, and it happened.”
Both women have improved, but I believe Ladd is still the better fighter. I’m not sure she will get the TKO in this bout, but I am taking Aspen Ladd to win this fight by UD. I believe her striking skills will be the difference in this contest. With their first fight being a UD outcome, and this bout going up a weight class, I believe that Sijara Eubanks is worthy of a small flier for you daredevils out there.
UFC Bet: Aspen Ladd (-270)
Vicente Luque (15-6-1) vs Derrick Krantz (22-10)
Derrick Krantz (N/A)
Vicente Luque (N/A)
With less than a week until the event, Neil Magny was removed from the card due to undisclosed reasons. That left Luque dangling in the wind until the UFC finally found a replacement with just four days until the event.
LFA’s Derrick Krantz will make his UFC debut this weekend and step into this bout on very short notice. Krantz comes in on a two fight win streak and 5-1 over his last six bouts. However, it was his fight in March that turned some heads as he KO’d his opponent in the first round.
Luque has won four straight fights with the last three coming via TKO/KO. He last fought in February and defeated Barberena via TKO in an incredible war. Vicente is 8-2 in the UFC and all eight of his wins have come via stoppage.
This fight is going to be explosive as both men have no fear in regards to exchanging punches in the middle of the octagon. I don’t see any backward movement from either fighter. As of this writing, there are no UFC betting odds since Krantz was just added to the fight. I would have to imagine that Luque is the favorite due to his UFC experience and success. However, don’t sleep on Krantz as he could be a candidate for upset of the night if he can get in his shots. And that’s a big “if.” As of now, you have to side with Vincent Luque and probably the large betting odds that he will have.
UFC Bet: Vicente Luque (N/A)
Rafael dos Anjos (28-11) vs Kevin Lee (17-4)
Rafael dos Anjos (-122)
Kevin Lee (+102)
Kevin Lee is the small underdog in this fight, which will be his debut in the welterweight division. Lee previously fought in the lightweight division. However, after losing to Al Iaquinta in December and Tony Ferguson in October 2017, Lee has decided that a move up in weight would be best for his career goals in the UFC. MMA Junkie reports that Kevin Lee discussed the move up in weight and his opponent this weekend:
“Even squaring off with ‘RDA’ and seeing him face-to-face, we’re the same size, man. I like that about it. And, at the end of the day, I just like a good fight. He’s going to give it to me. Nobody has ever really stopped him, and nobody has ever seriously hurt him. So that’s something I’m going to push for. At the end of the day, I’m going to get back to me. I’m going to get back to my natural fighting style. I’m going to push forward, I’m not going to take a step back. Put my chin down. I’m going to throw some hands, and we’ll see what he do and how he’s going to counteract that.”
Lee’s capable of throwing hands, but eight of his 17 wins have come via submission. Additionally, another seven wins have come via Decision. For Rafael dos Anjos (RDA), nine of his 28 wins have come via submission and 14 have come via Decision.
RDA is as skilled at takedowns as Lee is, but his move up to welterweight hasn’t gone as well as planned. RDA has lost two straight fights, both via UD. Those losses last year snapped a three-fight win streak in 2017. RDA also used to fight at lightweight but felt the need to go up since he was no longer a legit contender for the title in that division.
RDA has looked much slower in his welterweight fights and he hasn’t been able to takedown his opponents with the same success he had in the lightweight division. I believe he will struggle to takedown Lee in this fight. Additionally, I think Lee will be the better striker in this bout and he will have the athletic advantage over his opponent who is eight years older.
The more I dissect this matchup, the more I like Lee to win. Both men offer solid value, but I like Kevin Lee to win his welterweight debut in style with either a dominant UD victory or a TKO.
UFC Bet: Kevin Lee (+102)
UFC Fight Night 152 Betting Value
The following UFC Fight Night fighters offer solid betting value based on their current UFC Rochester odds, matchups, and career success:
Although I’m taking Trevin Giles (-145) to win his fight against Zak Cummings, I do feel that Cummings at +125 offers betting value and has a solid shot at pulling off the betting upset. I’m 55/45 in favor of Giles winning via Decision.
Grant Dawson (+118) is the slight underdog in his fight against Michael Trizano (-138), but I believe he has a great shot at pulling off the upset. I’m not sold on Trizano in the UFC and I believe he could suffer his first pro loss on Saturday. However, because his odds are this low, I also think Trizano offers value if you believe he will win.
Felicia Spencer (+130) is the underdog and the Invicta FC featherweight champ just like her opponent Megan Anderson (-150) was. I believe Anderson is the better striker and could win this fight, but I think that Spencer can get this fight to the ground and find a path to victory.
Ian Heinisch (+160) is the underdog, but he has a good shot at winning this fight due to his advantage in the striking department. His wrestling skills are solid enough to keep him out of trouble until he can get back upright again. I’m taking “The Hurricane” in an upset.
Kevin Lee (+102) is the slight underdog against Rafael dos Anjos (-122), but I like Lee to win this fight based on his athleticism and the fact that RDA has looked slow as a welterweight. Both men have moved up in weight, but I think Lee will carry the extra weight better than RDA. However, RDA also offers betting value if you believe he will win.
UFC Fight Night 152: dos Anjos vs Lee Final Thoughts
The main event of the night should be a lot of fun to watch. Both men won’t be afraid to go wherever the fight takes them. I also am intrigued with two other main card fights: Charles Oliveira vs Nik Lentz and Antonio Carlos Junior vs Ian Heinisch. The Lentz vs Oliveira trilogy bout should be explosive as will the ACJ vs Heinisch fight. Other than these bouts, this UFC Fight Night card lacks overall excitement. Most of the prelim matchups are too one-sided on paper and with the online betting sites. I do want to see how Trevin Giles performs.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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