UFC Fight Night 194: Dern vs Rodriguez Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

By in MMA on
11 Minute Read
Marina-Rodriguez-Mackenzie-Dern

On Saturday, October 9th, the UFC will be live from Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Fight Night 194 also known as UFC Vegas 39. The main event of the night is a Top 6 women’s strawweight battle between #4 Mackenzie Dern and #6 Marina Rodriguez.

The co-featured attraction is a welterweight bout between Randy Brown and Jared Gooden. Also on the five fight main card, which begins at 4pm ET on ESPN, is a Top 11 flyweight bout between #9 Tim Elliott and #11 Matheus Nicolau.

Rounding out the main card is a women’s flyweight contest of Sabina Mazo vs Mariya Agapova and a middleweight clash between Phil Hawes and Deron Winn.

Prior to the main card action, UFC Fight Night 194 features a six bout preliminary card that begins at 1pm ET and will stream live on ESPN+.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC Vegas 39 odds and TKO these predictions with some ground and pound action.

Chas Skelly vs Mike Trizano Cancelled

A featherweight clash between Chas Skelly and Mike Trizano has been cancelled as Skelly was forced out of the bout. Chas was the underdog for this matchup with odds floating around +145. Trizano was a -165 favorite.

Skelly is 7-4 in the UFC and has four bouts cancelled over the last few years. He’s fought just once in the last 35 months due to these cancellations.

The UFC is still hoping to find a replacement for Skelly to keep Trizano on the card. Mike is the TUF 27 lightweight tournament winner and has a 3-1 record inside the octagon.

Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn

  • Phil Hawes (-300)
  • Deron Winn (+250)
  • Over (-125)/Under (-105) 2.5 rounds

These two were originally scheduled to fight at UFC Vegas 31 on July 17th, but Winn suffered an injury and the fight had to be cancelled.

Later, it was reported that Winn’s injury was a separated rib and torn cartilage. Fortunately, he’s fully recovered and this original booking is back on track.

After starting off his career going 5-0, Winn made his debut with the UFC in June 2019 and defeated Eric Spicely via unanimous decision. Unfortunately, things went off the rails for Deron after that win.

He would go on to lose two straight bouts with the first coming via split decision to Darren Stewart in October 2019 and the second coming via 3rd round submission in March 2020 to Gerald Meerschaert.

Winn ended up snapping that losing skid with a unanimous decision win over Antonio Arroyo in December 2020. He’s now 2-2 in the UFC.

Four of his seven pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-1 when going the distance and also has one stoppage defeat via submission.

Hawes enters this weekend’s clash with Winn riding a seven fight winning streak. He hasn’t lost since August 2017 when he made his first appearance on DWCS. Phil suffered a 2nd round KO defeat to Julian Marquez.

Hawes then picked up three wins in a row across three different promotions including Bellator before getting a second shot on DWCS in September 2020. This time, he was successful as he beat Yuri Fraga via 1st round TKO.

That win earned him a UFC contract where Hawes has gotten off to a fast start going 3-0 in eight months.

“Megatron” defeated Jacob Malkoun via 1st round KO, Nassourdine Imavov via majority decision and Kyle Daukaus via unanimous decision. The Daukaus fight was his most recent bout and that came in May 2021.

None of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 2-0 when going the distance. Both of Hawes’ losses have come via stoppage.

I like for this contest to go Over 2.5 rounds (-125) and the full 15 minutes (+115). I think these two men are tough competitors who should survive any danger in this contest.

Four of Winn’s last five bouts have gone the distance. Two of Hawes’ three UFC fights have gone the distance.

Once with the judges, I like for Hawes to remain unbeaten and pick up the unanimous decision victory. I see his striking being the difference in this matchup.

Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn –Hawes (-300)

Over 2.5 rounds (-125)

Fight goes the distance (+115)

Hawes wins via decision (+185)

Mariya Agapova vs. Sabina Mazo

  • Mariya Agapova (+150)
  • Sabina Mazo (-175)
  • Over (-210)/Under (+170) 2.5 rounds

Agapova is the underdog as she enters the octagon for the third time. She debuted with the promotion in the summer of 2020 after two straight wins in Invicta FC.

Those victories came after an unsuccessful bout on DWCS in July 2019 where she lost to Tracy Cortez via unanimous decision. Prior to the DWCS appearance, she was 6-0 in her career.

Agapova’s octagon debut came in June 2020 where she beat Hannah Cifers via 1st round submission. It was an impressive debut to say the least. Unfortunately, all of that momentum came to a screeching halt as she suffered a 2nd round TKO loss to Shana Dobson.

Seven of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. She’s 2-1 when going the distance. Her lone stoppage defeat came in the contest against Dobson.

Following the loss to Dobson, Agapova was reportedly involved in some controversy having been kicked out of two different gyms for substance abuse and threatening behavior. Her manager has come out and denied the drug issue and has said that Mariya is all better now.

Sabina Mazo was 6-0 before joining the UFC in the spring of 2019. She ended up losing her octagon debut to Maryna Moroz via unanimous decision.

Mazo would bounce back with three straight wins. She beat Shana Dobson via unanimous decision in August 2019, JJ Aldrich via split decision in January 2020 and Justin Kish via 3rd round submission in September 2020.

However, her last fight came in February 2021 and she lost to Alexis Davis via unanimous decision. The loss snapped a three fight winning streak and dropped “The Colombian Queen” down to 3-2 inside the octagon.

Three of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with two by way of TKO/KO. She’s 6-2 when going the distance.

I see this bout going Over 2.5 rounds (-210) and the full 15 minutes (-160). Eight of Mazo’s 11 pro bouts have gone the distance including six of her last seven contests.

As for the winner, take Mazo to pick up the victory. She’s the better fighter between the two and I expect Sabina to handle whatever Agapova throws her way.

Mariya Agapova vs. Sabina Mazo –Mazo (-175)

Over 2.5 rounds (-210)

Fight goes the distance (-160)

Mazo wins via decision (+140)

Timothy Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau

  • Timothy Elliott (+165)
  • Matheus Nicolau (-190)
  • Over (-210)/Under (+170) 2.5 rounds

Nestled in the middle of this Fight Night main card, is a Top 11 flyweight bout between two entertaining fighters.

The 9th ranked Timothy Elliott is currently in the midst of a second stint with the UFC and hoping to continue his rise in the division, while also fending off any thoughts of a release.

Elliott’s first UFC run came in 2012 where he went 2-4 before moving on from the promotion in early 2015. He would pick up three wins in Titan FC and convinced the UFC to bring him back in late 2016.

Since then, Elliott has gone 4-5 in the UFC which gives him an overall record of 6-9 with the promotion.

In late 2019 to May 2020, Timothy lost three straight fights to Deiveson Figueiredo via submission, Askar Askarov via decision and Brandon Royval via submission.

He snapped that losing streak with a unanimous decision win over Ryan Benoit in July 2020. Elliott followed that up with another unanimous decision win in March 2021 against Jordan Espinosa. He now enters this weekend’s bout on a two fight winning streak.

Nine of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. He’s 8-5-1 when going the distance. Five of his 11 pro losses have come via submission.

The 11th ranked Matheus Nicolau first competed for the UFC six years ago. He quickly got out to a 3-0 start with a submission win over Bruno Mesquita, and split decision victory over John Moraga, and a unanimous decision win over Louis Smolka in December 2017.

That streak was snapped in July 2018 with a 1st round KO loss to Dustin Ortiz. He then left the UFC and scored two wins in small promotions before returning eight months ago to defeat Manel Kape via split decision.

Nine of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 7-1 when going the distance. His two losses have come via TKO/KO.

I think this is going to be a highly competitive matchup that goes Over 2.5 rounds and the full 15 minutes. Both men are really tough outs and I just don’t see either getting stopped.

With that in mind, I like Matheus Nicolau to pick up the decision victory over Elliott.

Timothy Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau –Nicolau (-190)

Over 2.5 rounds (-210)

Fight goes the distance (-210)

Nicolau wins via decision (+120)

Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden

  • Randy Brown (-225)
  • Jared Gooden (+190)
  • Over (-160)/Under (+130) 1.5 rounds

A 10-2 run for Gooden brought him to the UFC 11 months ago. Unfortunately, he got off to a rocky start going 0-2.

Gooden lost to Alan Jouban via unanimous decision in his debut last November then followed that up with a unanimous decision defeat to Abubakar Nurmagomedov in March 2021.

Jared was able to break that streak in impressive fashion with a 68 second KO over Niklas Stolze three months ago.

14 of his 18 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 4-5 when going the distance. His lone stoppage loss came via TKO/KO.

Brown started off his career going 6-0 before joining the UFC at the beginning of 2016. Unfortunately, he lost in his debut to Michael Graves via 2nd round submission.

He would bounce back going 3-1 over his next four fights with a submission win over Eric Montano in September 2016, a TKO win over Brian Camozzi in December 2016, and a unanimous decision win over Mickey Gall in November 2017. His lone loss over that span was a unanimous decision defeat against Belal Muhammad.

Since the Gall win, Brown has gone 3-2 with losses to Niko Price and Vicente Luque. He defeated Bryan Barberena, Warlley Alves and most recently against Alex Oliveira.

The bout against Oliveira had some unsavory moments at the end as Brown could be seen flipping off his opponent after the fight.

Apparently, the issues stemmed over a miscommunication between the two during the lead up to the fight. Eventually, they reconciled their differences and got back to being friendly.

11 of Brown’s 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 2-1 when going the distance.

I see this fight going Over 1.5 rounds (-160), but ending inside the distance (-185). With that said, I like for Brown to win via TKO/KO.

Gooden’s lone stoppage defeat was via TKO/KO. His other five losses were via decision. But I just don’t see Gooden surviving Brown’s power shots for 15 full minutes.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown picked up a submission win either. He has five submission wins compared to six TKO/KO victories. He’s recently beat both Alves and Oliveira via submission while stopping Barberena via TKO.

The best betting value for this contest is Brown winning inside the distance at +120 odds. That’s a solid number considering 11 of “Rude Boy’s” 13 wins have come via stoppage.

Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden –Brown (-225)

Over 1.5 rounds (-160)

Fight ends inside the distance (-185)

Brown wins inside the distance (+120)

Brown wins via TKO/KO (+280)

Marina Rodriguez vs. Mackenzie Dern

  • Marina Rodriguez (+145)
  • Mackenzie Dern (-170)
  • Over (+115)/Under (-145) 2.5 rounds

This main event fight is a Top 6 women’s strawweight battle between #4 Mackenzie Dern and #6 Marina Rodriguez. It’s also a striker vs grappler matchup as Dern is the accomplished grappler while Rodriguez is a sweet striker.

A 9-0 start to her career brought Rodriguez to DWCS in August 2018 where she picked up a 1st round TKO win over maria de Oliveira Neta. That win earned Marina a UFC deal, which she made her debut in September 2018 and fought to a draw against Rand Markos.

Since that fight, Rodriguez has gone on to post a 4-1-1 record in the UFC. She enters this weekend’s featured bout on a two fight winning streak with a 2nd round TKO victory over Amanda Ribas in January and a decision win over Michelle Waterson in May 2021.

Prior to her two victories in a row, Rodriguez lost to Carla Esparza via split decision. Some fans and pundits still believe that Marina won that fight.

Seven of her 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. She’s 7-1-2 when going the distance.

I see this bout ending one of two ways: a decision outcome or a late round TKO/KO win for Rodriguez.

Marina has the boxing skills to wear down Dern and put her away in the final round of the fight. This is only if she can defend the takedowns from Mackenzie.

If Mackenzie is successful with the takedowns then she can grind Rodriguez on the mat, control the pace, score with the judges and win via decision.

The other decision scenario is Rodriguez picking up a victory via scorecards after peppering Dern with her jab for several rounds. I see this being the most likely outcome.

Neither woman has suffered a stoppage defeat in her career. Although this is five rounds, I still believe that both women will survive the full 25 minutes.

I see Rodriguez doing a great job at jabbing from a distance and making it hard for Dern to go for takedowns. When Mackenzie does, I see Marina successfully stuffing most of these attempts.

Eventually, Rodriguez is going to land some big shots and rack up the points with the judges where she will end up taking the unanimous decision victory in this featured bout.

Yet, as mentioned above, a Rodriguez TKO/KO win isn’t a far-fetched idea. She’s the superior striker with power and a smooth jab. The odds for Marina to win via TKO/KO is +350 and well worth a small flier.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Mackenzie Dern –Rodriguez (+145)

Over 2.5 rounds (+115)

Fight goes the distance (+170)

Rodriguez wins via decision (+350)

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

View all posts by Rick Rockwell
Email the author at: [email protected]