UFC Fight Night 195: Ladd vs. Dumont Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

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On Saturday, October 16th, the UFC will be live from their Apex Center in Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night 195: Ladd vs Dumont also known as UFC Vegas 40.

After the preliminary card matchups, the main event of the night will be a featherweight fight between Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont. However, there were several twists and turns to get us to this featured bout.

Also on the main card are notable fighters like Andrei Arlovski, Jim Miller, and Julian Marquez. As of this writing, there are five bouts scheduled for the main card with a 7pm ET on ESPN+.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC Vegas 40 main card betting odds and TKO these predictions.

UFC Vegas 40 Cancelled Bouts

The original main event for Vegas 40 was supposed to be Ketlen Vieira taking on Miesha Tate. Unfortunately, that contest was cancelled as Tate was forced off the card due to testing positive for covid.

When that fight was cancelled, the UFC shifted to a featherweight title fight between Holly Holm and Norma Dumont. Once again, the card would lose its featured bout as Holm was forced to withdraw.

Fortunately, Aspen Ladd was able to fill in for Holm and will now face Norma Dumont in a five round main event. The bout will remain a featherweight contest.

Julian Marquez vs. Jordan Wright

  • Julian Marquez (-240)
  • Jordan Wright (+205)

According to UFC betting sites, this bout has the largest disparity in odds for UFC Vegas 40.

Wright started off his MMA career going 9-0 and earning a shot on DWCS. Unfortunately, that bout was overturned by the NSAC and ruled a No Contest.

Wright would head back to LFA where he beat Gabriel Checco via 2nd round TKO in January 2020. The UFC took notice and brough Jordan back.

Wright won his octagon debut in August 2020 by defeating Isaac Villanueva via 1st round TKO due to a doctor stoppage. His next bout was in November 2020 when he lost to Joaquin Buckley via 2nd round KO.

His most recent fight came in May 2021 and he beat Jamie Pickett via 1st round TKO to improve to 2-1 inside the octagon.

All 12 of his pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. His lone loss came via TKO/KO.

Marquez was out of action for almost three years before he returned to the octagon in February 2021 where he beat Maki Pitolo via 3rd round submission. Prior to that bout, his last fight came in July 2018 where he lost via split decision to Alessio Di Chirico.

Marquez’s most recent contest came in April when he defeated Sam Alvey via 2nd round submission. He’s now 3-1 in the UFC and 7-1 in his last eight overall fights.

All nine if his wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. He’s 0-2 when going the distance.

Combined, these two men have gone the distance in just two total fights. So, it’s a good bet that this bout will end inside the distance (-305).

With that said, both men are capable fighters standing up and on the mat. Yet, Marquez has never been stopped in his career. And, I don’t see that happening this weekend.

I’m taking Marquez to win via TKO/KO over Wright in what should be an entertaining bout.

Julian Marquez vs. Jordan Wright –Marquez (-240)

Fight ends inside the distance (-305)

Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

  • Manon Fiorot (-210)
  • Mayra Bueno Silva (+180)
  • Over (-155)/Under (+125) 2.5 rounds

This women’s flyweight contest was originally scheduled for UFC 266 last month. However, it was cancelled due to Fiorot testing positive for covid. Fortunately, the UFC was able to push it back a few weeks and Manon is ready to go.

Mayra Bueno Silva was 4-0 when she appeared on DWCS in August 2018 and defeated Mayana Souza dos Santos via 1st round submission. That earned her a contract with the UFC where she debuted one month later and beat Gillian Robertson via 1st round submission.

Silva would end up losing to Maryna Moroz via unanimous decision in March 2020 before getting back into the win column with another 1st round submission. This time it was against Mara Romero Borella in September 2020.

Mayra’s most recent bout came in February 2021 where she fought to a majority draw against Montana De La Rosa. She’s now 2-1-1 inside the octagon.

Six of her seven pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. She’s 1-1-1 when going the distance.

After losing her first pro fight via split decision, Fiorot has run off seven straight wins. She debuted with the UFC in January 2021 and defeated Victoria Leonard via 2nd round TKO. Manon followed that up with a 2nd round TKO win over Tabatha Ricci in June 2021.

She’s tallied five straight victories via TKO. Six of her seven pro wins have come via TKO/KO and she’s 1-1 inside the octagon.

This is a very compelling matchup as we have two solid competitors and a striker vs grappler. With that said, I believe we’re going Over 2.5 rounds (+155) and the full 15 minutes (+115).

As for the winner, I like Fiorot in this one. She’s the better striker and as long as she doesn’t make a mistake, or end up in a bad position on the mat, then Manon should win this contest via unanimous decision.

Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva –Fiorot (-210)

Over 2.5 rounds (+155)

Fight goes the distance (+115)

Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez

  • Jim Miller (-180)
  • Erick Gonzalez (+150)

Erick Gonzalez is making his UFC debut this weekend and enters on a two fight winning streak. Both wins have come during 2021 with victories in March and August for two different promotions. “The Ghost Pepper” is 4-1 in his last five bouts.

Nine of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-3 when going the distance.

For Miller, this will be his 38th fight for the UFC. We could write 10 articles on Miller’s career inside the octagon, but we’ll just focus on the last two years.

Since April 2019, Miller has gone 3-3 inside the octagon. However, he’s 1-3 in his last four bouts and enters this weekend’s contest having lost two straight fights.

Miller last competed in April and lost via unanimous decision to Joe Solecki. His last three losses have all come via decision. His last three wins have all come via submission.

22 of his 32 pro wins have come via stoppage with 18 by way of submission. He’s 10-11 when going the distance.

This one certainly has the chance of going the distance considering these two men have combined for 29 decisions.

With that said, I’m taking this bout to end via submission. Two of Gonzalez’s five pro losses have come via submission. 18 of Miller’s 22 pro wins have come via submission. When you do the math, “A-10” should win via tap-out in this contest.

Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez –Miller (-180)

Fight ends inside the distance (+140)

Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe

  • Andrei Arlovski (-115)
  • Carlos Felipe (-105)
  • Over (-200)/Under (+160) 2.5 rounds

Carlos Felipe started off his career going 8-0 before joining the UFC last year. Unfortunately, he dropped his octagon debut in July 2020 to Sergey Spivak via majority decision.

He bounced back three months later with a decision win over Yorgan De Castro. He’s also beat Justin Tafa and Jake Collier via split decisions in 2021, which has improved his winning streak to three straight fights.

Six of his 11 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 5-1 when going the distance.

Like with Jim Miller above, Andrei Arlovski has been with the UFC for many years now and we could spend a great deal of time writing about his octagon career. This bout against Felipe will be his 35th trip inside the octagon. He’s 20-14 all-time with the UFC.

A rough stretch over 2018 and 2019, where Andrei went 0-3 with 1 NC, had many people thinking Arlovksi’s time was up in MMA and the UFC.

But the veteran fighter has gone 4-2 since then with losses coming against ranked heavyweights Rozenstruik and Aspinall.

Andrei’s last contest came in April where he beat Chase Sherman via decision. That was two months after losing to Aspinall via 2nd round submission. He’s 3-1 in his last four bouts.

20 of his 31 pro wins have come via stoppage with 17 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 11-7 when going the distance.

One reason why Arlovski hasn’t fought in six months is that he’s been busy appearing on All Elite Wrestling with many of his American Top Team teammates like Junior dos Santos and Jorge Masvidal.

They, along with team manager Dan Lambert, have become a compelling storyline for AEW television. In fact, Lambert believes that Arlovski and JDS could actually make the jump from MMA to pro wrestling:

“But, as I said, he looked down from the rafters and was having second thoughts on that. But I think I’ll stick with him or maybe even Arlovski. I think they would both like to get into it. They’re both big, strong guys. Maybe Arlovski’s a little scarier looking and he’d probably end up being the heel and I think JDS would be the perpetual babyface.”

Junior dos Santos will actually compete in a wrestling match for AEW on October 15th. Arlovski will not appear this weekend, but is certainly in the cards for future shows.

As for this weekend’s event, I like Arlovski to pick up the win via split decision. Nine of his last 11 fights have gone the distance. For Felipe, he’s never been stopped and he’s gone the distance in four straight bouts.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe –Arlovski (-115)

Over 2.5 rounds (-200)

Fight goes the distance (-145)

Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont

  • Aspen Ladd (-140)
  • Norma Dumont (+120)
  • Over (-250)/Under (+200) 2.5 rounds

Since we already detailed earlier in the article as to how this main event came about, let’s just get right into this showdown.

Dumont started off 4-0 in her MMA career and joined the UFC in early 2020 where she debuted in February and lost via 1st round KO to Megan Anderson.

Norma picked herself back up, dusted herself off and has won two fights in a row since then. She beat Ashlee Evans-Smith via decision in November 2020 and then defeated Felicia Spencer via split decision in May 2021.

Two of her six pro wins have come via submission. She’s 4-0 when going the distance.

Much has been made about Ladd’s issues with cutting weight. It seems to be an ongoing issue as she was supposed to fight at UFC Vegas 38, but failed to make weight. This sparked the critics who blasted her for missing the weight.

Miesha Tate took it a step further by saying that Ladd is a cheater. Either way, these weight issues have certainly plagued Aspen’s career the last two years.

Ladd’s lone career defeat came against Germaine de Randamie in July 2019 when she was severely off due to the weight cuts. Aspen bounced back in the end of 2019 with a 3rd round TKO over Yana Kunitskaya. This is her first fight since then.

Seven of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. She’s 2-0 when going the distance.

Ladd is certainly capable of winning this fight via TKO/KO, but I think the more likely outcome is a unanimous decision win. Dumont is a tough out who will keep the fight competitive. Take the Over/2.5 rounds as well.

Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont –Ladd (-140)

Over 2.5 rounds (-250)

Fight goes the distance (-165)

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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