UFC Fight Night 147 Till vs Masvidal: Betting Preview, Odds, and Picks
On Saturday, March 16th, the UFC will be live from the O2 Arena in London, England, for UFC Fight Night 147 also known as UFC Fight Night: Till vs Masvidal. The featured bout of the night is a welterweight battle between Darren Till and Jorge Masvidal.
There are no championship fights on the night, but there is one women’s fight. In total, there are 13 fights scheduled for this London UFC event.
MMA betting sites have released their updated UFC betting odds. So, let’s step inside the betting octagon to identify some betting value and KO our UFC picks.
UFC Fight Night 147 Prelims
The UFC Fight Night 147 preliminary card features seven fights and is set to begin at 1PM ET. The preliminary card will stream on ESPN+. All betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
Mike Grundy (+143) vs Nad Narimani (-163)
This featherweight fight is a battle between two athletes from the UK. So, either way, the fans will be happy with a Brit winning.
Mike Grundy (11-1) is making his UFC debut after winning 8 straight fights outside of the promotion. His last MMA fight was in November 2017, so he has had over 15 months between bouts. Grundy has a strong wrestling background that includes several amateur accolades. He’s been able to use that wrestling to grind out other opponents in regional promotions.
Nad Narimani (12-2) has won 5 straight fights including his first two fights in the UFC, which both were via Unanimous Decision. Narimani last fought in November and appears to be the better striker of the two. Narimani also has a solid wrestling game, which will make it tougher for Grundy to grind out this win.
I believe Nad’s striking skills and overall experience inside the octagon will be the difference in this fight. I expect Narimani to keep this fight upright for as long as possible. I believe he also has enough of a takedown defense to make Grundy’s debut a tough one. This fight will probably go the distance, but I expect Narimani to come away with the UD victory.
Molly McCann (-185) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+160)
In the only women’s fight of the night, Molly McCann takes on Priscila Cachoeira in a women’s flyweight fight. Both combatants are looking to rebound from losses in their UFC debuts.
Molly McCann (7-2) hasn’t fought in 10 months when she lost to Gillian Robertson in her UFC debut. Nicknamed “Meatball,” McCann didn’t make weight and got submitted in the fight. Prior to joining the UFC, Molly captured the flyweight title at Cage Warriors. So, she does have some championship background as a pro.
Priscila Cachoeira (8-1) suffered an ugly loss to Valentina Shevchenko 13 months ago in her debut. It was a one-sided massacre inside the octagon and it snapped her 8 fight winning streak. Coming into this fight, Cachoeira has a 3 inch height and 3 inch reach advantage.
Both fighters have split their wins via KO/TKO or Decisions. Neither really is a threat to win via submission, but that’s not to say they can’t. However, this fight will most likely go the distance based on each fighter’s preferred fighting style. For Priscila, she tries to end a fight with one punch. For McCann, she has the striking skills to pick apart her opponents. And, that’s exactly what the Brit will do in this contest.
If McCann can’t pick up the TKO, then I expect her to win via UD. She has the striking skills to pummel Cachoeira in this fight and she can also defend against the takedown if Priscila gets desperate to take the fight to the mat. Either way, I see McCann winning in front of her fellow countrymen. Neither fighter offers any betting value.
"I know there's quit in her and there isn't quit in me!"
— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) March 13, 2019
Danny Henry (+125) vs Dan Ige (-145)
Although neither fighter is from England, Danny Henry is from Scotland, so I expect him to get the crowd support for this featherweight bout.
Danny Henry (12-2) comes into this contest having won 5 straight fights. He’s also 2-0 inside the octagon, but hasn’t fought in 12 months. Henry has 5 KO/TKO and 5 submission wins on his resume as he won his last fight over Dawodu via submission. Henry also has an awkward looking striking style, but will have a 5 inch height advantage.
Dan Ige (10-2) was on a 6 fight winning streak before losing at UFC 220, which was 14 months ago. He lost via UD to Julio Arce. Ige would bounce back and win his next two fights in 2018, over Santiago via TKO and Griffin via UD. Ige is a grinder. Some pundits believe his best attributes are endurance and durability. With that said, both should help him come out of this fight as the winner.
I expect Ige to withstand flurries of strikes from Henry and try to either grind Danny against the fence or on the mat. Henry does have some mat capabilities, but Ige has looked better on the ground than Henry. I think this fight is going the distance and Ige should come away with another Unanimous Decision victory in his career, improving his UFC record to 3-1.
Tom Breese (-140) vs Ian Heinisch (+120)
In this middleweight battle, both fighters look to avoid their second career loss by winning what many MMA oddsmakers have as very close contest.
England’s Tom Breese (11-1) has gone 4-1 inside the octagon with his last fight 10 months ago. He defeated Kelly via TKO in the 1st round to bounce back from the first loss of his career. It was also his first fight at 185 pounds, which he looks like a better overall fighter at this weight class.
The American Ian Heinisch (12-1), has quite the personal story of being a “drug trafficker” and imprisoned for some time. He won the LFA middle weight title 10 months ago and then went on to destroy Sumter at DWTNCS last July. That earned him a contract and he debuted last November against the tough Cezar Ferreira. Heinisch was able to outwork Cezar and scored a huge upset win via UD. Ironically, Ian is replacing Ferreira in this fight as Cezar was set to take on Breese.
Heinisch might look like the more intimidating fighter inside the cage, but Breese is the better overall fighter of the two. Breese is a better striker, has better striking combinations, and has a strong takedown defense with some good wrestling skills. He can nullify Ian’s takedown attempts and stay at a range to do some damage. Ultimately, I believe that Breese will pick apart Heinisch all fight long and either get a late round stoppage or win via UD.
Nicolae Negumereanu (-180) vs Saparbek Safarov (+155)
In this light heavyweight contest, neither fighter hails from the UK nor has either combatant proven anything in the UFC as of yet. This fight was originally scheduled to be Safarov against Gokhan Saki. Unfortunately, the former kickboxing star pulled out last month due to an undisclosed injury.
Nicolae Negumereanu (9-0) is replacing Saki and making his UFC debut. Prior to this fight, Nicolae has fought on the Romanian regional scene. He is undefeated, but his opponents haven’t been anything to brag about. 6 of NN’s wins have come via KO/TKO, so he does have some pop to his strikes.
Saparbek Safarov (8-2) would’ve been destroyed by Saki in this contest. However, the winless (0-2) UFC fighter has a much better chance at winning. In fact, I think that the MMA betting sites got these odds all wrong. Safarov is a noticeable underdog despite having actually fought in the UFC before. His opponent hasn’t been inside the octagon and is a raw prospect.
Neither fighter has gone the distance in their professional careers. And, I don’t see that happening in this fight either. In no way am I saying that Safarov is a great fighter, but he’s shown more than NN has. I’m taking the upset here and I feel that this is one of those MMA bets where the UFC oddsmakers have missed the boat. Safarov will win via TKO.
Marc Diakiese (+167) vs Joseph Duffy (-192)
Here’s a regional lightweight battle between an Irishman and a Brit. You know this crowd is going to be “hot” for this fight.
England’s Marc Diakiese (12-3) is fighting for his UFC job. He’s lost three straight fights after winning his first three UFC bouts dating back to October 2016. Marc has shown explosiveness and solid wrestling skills in the past, but he was unable to use either of those attributes in his recent losing streak.
Joseph Duffy (10-3) hasn’t fought in almost 16 months. And, in that fight, he lost to James Vick via TKO at the end of the 2nd round. Since joining the UFC four years ago, Duffy has gone 4-2 inside the octagon. His two losses have come against some of the division’s top fighters like James Vick and Dustin Poirier.
This fight is a must win for both athletes and I think it’s going to be a close one. Ultimately, I see it going to the scorecards. With that said, I’m going with Duffy in this fight. I believe that Joe has the better striking skills and is enough of a grappler to contend with Diakiese’s wrestling skills. I’m taking Duffy to win via UD. I do believe that Diakiese is worthy of a flyer if you are looking for potential upsets on the night.
Arnold Allen (-150) vs Jordan Rinaldi (+130)
This is the third close fight of the prelims according to MMA oddsmakers and it features England’s top prospect Arnold Allen against the American Jordan Rinaldi in a featherweight bout.
Arnold Allen (13-1) has won six straight contests including going 4-0 inside the UFC. However, he made his octagon debut in June 2015, and hasn’t been able to fully capitalize on any momentum due to injuries and Visa issues. He’s only fought four times in the last four years, which is tied for how many times he fought in 2014 alone.
Jordan Rinaldi (14-6) has gone 2-2 inside the UFC and hasn’t really shown anything of real value. He’s a rugged fighter without any superior advantages over his opponents. Rinaldi does enough to be competitive and remain in the UFC, but he’s just a few losses away from being released.
This fight will be the first loss toward Rinaldi getting his pink slip as Allen is a superior striker and will outwork Rinaldi on their feet. Jordan doesn’t have top-notch wrestling skills to really exploit any flaws in Allen’s takedown defense. So, I see Allen either getting a late round TKO or winning via UD due to his volume of strikes.
UFC Fight Night 147 Main Card
The main card portion of the night features six fights and is scheduled to begin at 4 PM ET. It will also be streamed live on ESPN+. All betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
The Battle for 🏴 Wales!
— UFC (@ufc) March 13, 2019
Jack Marshman (-162) vs John Phillips (+142)
This middleweight battle features two fighters from Wales. Both men are looking to get back into the win column and move up in the division.
Jack Marshman (22-8) has dropped three of his last four fights, including his last two. He’s gone 2-3 inside the octagon and has losses to fighters like Thiago Santos. Marshman isn’t a technically skilled fighter, he’s more of a brawler. And he’s going to be in for a war in this contest against his fellow countryman.
John Phillips (21-8) debuted in the UFC one year ago, but has lost both fights during that span. John lost both of them via submission. In fact, 5 of his 8 career losses have come via submission. Fortunately, that’s not something he will have to worry about with Marshman as Jack is more about knocking an opponent’s head off rather than choking them out.
To me, this fight is a toss-up. Both Welshmen are tough athletes, but I would have to give the edge in power shots to Phillips. With that said, I think Marshman has the tougher chin and could actually withstand some of John’s biggest shots.
After flipping a coin, I’m going with Marshman to win via Split Decision. However, Phillips does offer betting value and could just as easily win this fight.
Danny Roberts (+124) vs Claudio Silva (-144)
Danny Roberts (16-3) comes into this welterweight clash having a 2 inch height and 3 inch reach advantage. He will also have his fellow Brits cheering him on. Roberts has won two straight fights, which improves his overall UFC record to 5-2. He did drop a fight to Mike Perry via KO and another loss to Taleb via KO.
Claudio Silva (12-1) fought last May and tapped out Taleb in the 1st round. It was Silva’s first fight in 3 ½ years. He hadn’t fought since November 2014 due to injuries. Silva has won 12 straight fights and is 3-0 inside the octagon. He showed no rust in his fight last year, but will have a challenge on his hands this weekend against Roberts.
Danny is a skilled boxer with some decent grappling skills. He has the striking capabilities to make this fight really tough for Silva. Unfortunately, Roberts also has some holes in his takedown defense and his ground game. This is where Silva will exploit the Brit and pick up the win. 7 of Silva’s 12 career wins have come via submission. Even if Roberts is able to survive any submission attempts, I expect Silva to still win via UD due to outworking Roberts and having the ground control.
— UFC (@ufc) March 12, 2019
Nathaniel Wood (-300) vs Jose Alberto Quinonez (+250)
Nathaniel Wood (15-3) comes into this bantamweight matchup as the biggest betting favorite on the entire UFC event. Wood has won 7 fights in a row including both of his UFC fights which he scored submission wins over Eduardo and Ewell. Wood has the advantage of his fellow countrymen cheering him on, which should give him even more energy to fight at a high pace.
Jose Alberto Quinonez (7-2) has won 4 straight fights after dropping his UFC debut in November 2014. He’s a fighter that likes to overwhelm his opponents with the pace he sets. It’s proven well for him as he has won 4 in a row. He came up short in winning the TUF LA finals in 2014, but has been a solid fighter since then despite the injuries that seem to derail his momentum at times.
Unfortunately for Quinonez, he’s not going to be able to out-pace Wood. Furthermore, Wood is more than willing to stand up and exchange violence with Jose. But, the thing that should win Wood the fight is his underrated grappling skills, which earned him two submission wins in the last 9 months.
I expect Wood to take everything that Quinonez can dish out. I like Wood’s fearlessness when it’s controlled and I believe he will score the UD win in his homecoming fight.
Volkan Oezdemir (+225) vs Dominick Reyes (-265)
Volkan Oezdemir (15-3) has dropped two straight fights in the light heavyweight division. However, they were against the division’s upper echelon as he lost via submission to Anthony Smith last October and to Daniel Cormier 14 months ago. VO is 3-2 inside the octagon, but it doesn’t appear he’s anything more than a gatekeeper at this point. Oezdemir has power in his punches with 11 of his 15 career wins coming via KO/TKO. But, he’s not as talented as the top fighters in the division.
Dominick Reyes (10-0) remains unbeaten in his pro MMA career and is 4-0 inside the octagon. He took out Ovince St. Preux last October via UD and has also won via TKO and submission in the UFC. Reyes has proven to be one of the division’s top risers, which is where Volkan was in 2017. Unfortunately for Oezdemir, he appears to be on the decline in the division.
Whether it’s standing and striking from a distance or taking VO down to the mat, Reyes appears to have the advantage in every major aspect of this fight. Other than a lucky shot from the clinch, I don’t see any other path to victory for Oezdemir.
The smart money is on Reyes as he’s one of the biggest betting favorites of the night. I believe that the MMA betting sites got this one right. Reyes should either win via UD due to a larger volume of work or he will catch Oezdemir with a nasty shot and score a late round TKO. Either way, Reyes remains undefeated and earns a bigger divisional fight next time out.
Leon Edwards (-149) vs Gunnar Nelson (+129)
The co-main event of the night is a welterweight clash between England’s Leon Edwards and Iceland’s Gunnar Nelson. Both fighters are looking for a statement win to boost their standings in the division.
In the last 4 years, Leon Edwards (16-3) has gone 8-1 over a 9 fight stretch. His lone loss was to the current welterweight champ Kamaru Usman who defeated Tyron Woodley for the welterweight title earlier this month. During those 8 wins, Edwards has beat some notable fighters like Luque and Cerrone.
Gunnar Nelson (17-3-1) has been on the cusp of breaking through to the upper echelon. He’s fought in the UFC since September 2012, and has tallied a record of 8-3 inside the octagon. However, injuries have derailed Nelson at times. After his loss to Ponzinibbio in July 2017, he was out until December 2018 before returning and tapping out the tough Alex Oliveira.
Both fighters have the ability to move into the upper echelon, but they seem to be just short of fully reaching their potential. This fight is a really close one to call. For me, I believe Nelson has the ground game to defeat Edwards. Nelson showed that he’s at the top of his technical form when he defeated Oliveira nearly 3 months ago. Edwards will need another strong showing like he did with Cerrone last June.
Unfortunately, I don’t think Edwards is going to have the same good fortunes that he did against Cerrone. I believe Nelson is better than Edwards on the mat and that will be the difference in this fight. I’m taking the betting upset for this contest.
Darren Till (-250) vs Jorge Masvidal (+210)
The main event of the night is a welterweight clash between England’s Darren Till and American Jorge Masvidal. Till is a huge betting favorite coming into this contest despite Masvidal’s respectable resume.
Darren Till (17-1-1) debuted in the UFC almost 4 years ago. In his first three fights, Till went 2-0-1. He was out all of 2016 with injuries before returning in May 2017. From that point, Till would go on to win 4 straight fights over the next year including a victory over Cerrone. Till ended up earning a shot against Woodley last September, but lost via 2nd round submission to Woodley and was severely outclassed. Till looks to rebound in a big way this weekend in front of his fellow countrymen.
Jorge Masvidal (32-13) has impressed me at times and has frustrated me even more. He has a ton of talent, but seems to put things into cruise control during his fights. Masvidal has fought 15 times inside the octagon and has posted a record of 9-6. All six of his UFC losses have come via Decision, with 4 of those 6 being Split Decision losses. Those were 4 fights he could’ve won if he just did more.
That’s the theme for many of Masvidal’s fights, “just do more.” He certainly has the skills to do more, but tends to take his foot off the gas pedal. I’m concerned that will happen in this fight as well. In fact, I think this could end up being a boring fight overall. Till has the ability to knockout people at a violent rate, but tends to shy away from that at times. Masvidal has the ability to finish off opponents upright or on the mat, but doesn’t always close out a fight.
I think this fight could end up being more of a battle of pride or showmanship than actual skills. Till is the betting favorite and the smart money is on him. So, I’m going to take Till to get the favorable Decision victory over Masvidal in his home country. With that said, I do believe Masvidal can win this fight and is worthy of a flyer. If we can see the Jorge who puts all of his talents on display than he will finish Till before going the distance. Unfortunately, the odds are against that happening and not because Till is the better fighter.
UFC Fight Night 147 Betting Value
The following UFC Fight Night 147 fighters offer betting value based on their current odds, matchups and past success:
- Saparbek Safarov (+155) is the underdog for his matchup against Nicolae Negumereanu despite NN having never fought inside the UFC before. Although Safarov is 0-2 in the UFC, he has fought tougher opponents than NN has on the Romanian regional scene. I really like these betting odds for Safarov and believe he will win.
- Marc Diakiese (+167) is the underdog in his fight against Joe Duffy, and I picked his opponent to win. However, he is fighting in his home country and he does have enough wrestling skills to pull off the upset. Furthermore, this fight is expected to go to the judges, which means anything can happen at that point. With his UFC career on the line, Marc could be worth a flyer for those risk takers out there.
- In the battle of Welshmen, John Phillips (+142) is the underdog, but he certainly is capable of winning this brawl. I took Marshman to win, but Phillips is just as capable of getting a Decision victory or a TKO as Marshman is. When fights turn into ugly
- Gunnar Nelson (+129) is the betting underdog in this matchup with Edwards, but he’s a technically strongerfighter on the ground. And, that’s where I think this fight will be decided. Edwards definitely has a chance, but Nelson appears poised for a run up the divisional ladder. Which is something that many pundits and fans have been waiting a while for.
- Jorge Masvidal (+210) has the skills to upset Till in the main event, if “Gamebred” decides to keep his foot on the gas and use his underrated ground game as well as his striking prowess. Masvidal is a maddening fighter because he seems to take his foot off the gas at times during his fights. That’s the only reason I’m not picking him to win outright. But, he definitely is worthy of a flyer.
UFC Fight Night Final Thoughts
I’m not really that impressed with this UFC Fight Night event. There’s not a lot of excitement over some of these matchups. It’s a typical non-Brazil Fight Night card with not that many names on it. Outside of the top two fights, the entertainment value for this UFC event is expected to be low. The MMA betting sites had a tough time with how close some of these fights are, which is a good thing because I do see some betting value due to it (which I listed above).
The one women’s fight is rather uninspiring. In fact, I will be watching the women’s boxing match between Volante and Taylor on DAZN instead. Now that I think about it, both the DAZN boxing event and the FOX PPV boxing event featuring Spence vs Garcia are more exciting this weekend than this UFC event. Nevertheless, fight fans will have plenty of choices this weekend, which is always a good thing for UFC fans and MMA bettors alike.
UFC Fight Night 147 Betting Recap
- Nad Narimani (-163)
- Molly McCann (-185)
- Dan Ige (-145)
- Tom Breese (-140)
- Saparbek Safarov (+155)
- Joseph Duffy (-192)
- Arnold Allen (-150)
- Jack Marshman (-162)
- Claudio Silva (-144)
- Nathaniel Wood (-300)
- Dominick Reyes (-265)
- Gunnar Nelson (+129)
- Darren Till (-250)