On Saturday, June 13th, the UFC will return to action live from their UFC Apex venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC on ESPN 10: Eye vs Calvillo also known as UFC Fight Night: Eye vs Calvillo. The main event of the evening is a battle of top ranked fighters as Jessica Eye takes on Cynthia Calvillo.
In total, there are 11 bouts scheduled for this event with a start time of 6 PM ET. The five fight main card is set to begin at 9 PM ET. The entire UFC on ESPN 10 show can be seen live on ESPN and ESPN+.
UFC betting sites have released odds for the full slate of fights. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these current betting lines courtesy of 5Dimes, identify possible betting value or upsets, and KO our picks.
The preliminary card features six fights and is set to begin at 6 PM ET on ESPN and ESPN+.
Christian Aguilera vs Anthony Ivy
Christian Aguilera (+158)
Anthony Ivy (-190)
Over (-135)/Under (+105) 1.5 rounds
Christian Aguilera will step inside the octagon for the first time and is the underdog in his UFC debut. He’s won two straight fights and was a former contender in the LFA. 10 of his 13 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. However, four of his six losses have also come via TKO/KO.
Anthony Ivy will also make his UFC debut this weekend and brings with him a five fight win streak. All five of those wins were via stoppage. Ivy has a massive wrestling advantage over Aguilera and will need to rely on this edge in order to win the fight.
Aguilera has knockout power, but it’s going to be hard to land that shot when he’s constantly fighting from his back. I see this fight going over 1.5 rounds (-135), but I don’t see it going the distance (-230). Ivy has yet to go the distance in 10 career fights.
Ivy also has five TKO/KO wins in his eight pro victories and I see him picking up his 6th TKO/KO win of his career. Ivy will win this bout inside the distance (-120).
Christian Aguilera vs Anthony Ivy –Ivy (-190)
Over 1.5 rounds (-135)
Fight doesn’t go to decision (-230)
Ivy wins inside the distance
Jordan Griffin vs Darrick Minner
Jordan Griffin (-165)
Darrick Minner (+145)
Over (+173)/Under (-220) 2.5 rounds
This bout is a rematch from when these two men fought in LFA two years ago. Griffin won that fight via 2nd round submission.
Minner is making his second trip into the octagon after losing his UFC debut in February via 2nd round submission. He’s 2-2 in his last four fights and 4-3 in his seven fights since losing to Griffin. 21 of his 24 pro wins have come via submission. He has very little striking in his arsenal.
Griffin’s time in the UFC started off rocky with two losses via decision. He bounced back in February and won via submission over T.J. Brown. 14 of his 18 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of submission.
Griffin has a huge edge in striking and he has the submission defense to nullify Minner’s attempts. In reality, there’s no reason to think that the outcome will change for this rematch. Griffin is the better fighter and he will win this bout inside the distance (-105).
The Over/Under for this fight is rather tricky. The odds heavily favor the Under 2.5 rounds (-220), so let’s take it. I believe Griffin will finish off this fight before it gets into the latter portion of the scheduled three rounds.
Griffin will either finish off Minner via TKO through striking or he will lock in a chokehold on the mat. Either way, Griffin gets his second UFC win.
Jordan Griffin vs Darrick Minner –Griffin (-165)
Under 2.5 rounds (-220)
Fight doesn’t go to decision (-265)
Griffin wins inside the distance (-105)
Tyson Nam vs Zarrukh Adashev
Tyson Nam (NA)
Zarrukh Adashev (NA)
Over/Under not available at this time
This fight was originally scheduled to be Tyson Nam (+103) versus Ryan Benoit (-123), where Nam was the slight underdog. Benoit withdrew from this fight due to undisclosed reasons.
Zarrukh Adashev stepped in on less than a week’s notice as he makes his UFC debut on Saturday. Adashev has won three straight fights, which all took place in Bellator. He hasn’t competed since October 2019. Two of his three pro wins are via TKO/KO.
Tyson Nam is looking for his first win inside the octagon having gone 0-2 in his first two fights against Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France. These weren’t easy fights.
10 of his 18 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s a striker at heart who really isn’t a threat to take down his opponents. That’s a good thing considering his opponent is the same.
This fight should be a striking battle which can end midway through the fight or go the full distance. If they stand and strike for the full three rounds then this fight could win a bonus. As for the winner of this contest, I am going with Nam based on his UFC experience and lengthier success in MMA.
Tyson Nam vs Zarrukh Adashev –Nam (NA)
Julia Avila vs Gina Mazany
Julia Avila (-485)
Gina Mazany (+385)
Over (+100)/Under (-120) 2.5 rounds
In the first of three women’s fights on the night, Julia Avila takes on Gina Mazany. Avila comes in as the largest betting favorite of the event and Mazany is the largest underdog. This bout was originally scheduled to be between Avila and Karol Rosa.
Gina Mazany replaced Rosa on less than two weeks’ notice and is looking for her second win in a row. She’s 1-2 in her last three pro fights and 1-3 inside the octagon. Four of her six pro wins have come via stoppage.
Julia Avila is 7-1 in her career with the lone loss due to an injury in the fight. She’s railed off three straight wins in a row including her UFC debut 11 months ago. Four of her seven pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of TKO/KO.
I have no doubt that Avila will win this fight. She has a solid takedown defense, which will keep this fight upright. Additionally, Avila has the clear-cut edge in striking and power. I believe she will stop Mazany in similar fashion to what Macy Chiasson did 15 months ago.
I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds (-120) in this contest as I’m predicting a TKO win for the rising bantamweight Julia Avila.
Julia Avila vs Gina Mazany –Avila (-485)
Under 2.5 rounds (-120)
Fight doesn’t go the distance (-140)
Avila wins inside the distance (-155)
Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar
Charles Rosa (+150)
Kevin Aguilar (-170)
Over (-220)/Under (+180) 2.5 rounds
Charles Rosa enters as a sizable underdog having alternated between wins and losses since joining the UFC in 2014. He’s 3-4 inside the octagon. Rosa is a grappler who will look to get the fight to the mat. 11 of his 12 wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission.
Aguilar has had a rough go of things lately with two straight losses after starting off his UFC stint with two wins. He lacked the striking prowess to hang with Dan Ige and Zubaira Tukhugov. He does have the power though, as 10 of his 17 pro wins have come via TKO/KO.
Aguilar isn’t going to have to worry about Rosa outstriking him as his last two opponents did. Additionally, Aguilar has a strong takedown defense and has never lost via submission in his career. This is bad news for Rosa who hasn’t won via TKO since February 2014.
The big question here is whether or not Rosa’s chin can hold up for the full three rounds. I don’t see that happening. I don’t see this fight going to a decision (+155) despite Aguilar’s pension for going the distance. I believe he will win this fight inside the distance via TKO.
As for the O/U 2.5 rounds, let’s go against the grain here and take the Under at +180 odds.
Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar –Aguilar (-170)
Under 2.5 rounds (+180)
Fight doesn’t go the distance (+155)
Aguilar wins inside the distance (+395)
Mariya Agapova vs Hannah Cifers
Mariya Agapova (-245)
Hannah Cifers (+205)
Over (-240)/Under (+180) 2.5 rounds
This fight was originally scheduled to be Melissa Gatto versus Mariya Agapova. Unfortunately, Gatto ran into travel issues and Cifers is stepping up to replace her on less than a week’s notice.
What makes this even more difficult for Cifers is that she just fought two weeks ago and lost via 1st round submission to Mackenzie Dern. So, not only is it a short notice fight, but it’s also on a very quick turnaround.
Cifers has lost two straight fights and is now 2-3 inside the octagon. Five of her 10 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. However, four of her five pro losses have come via stoppage.
Mariya Agapova is a rising prospect with the power to finish this fight in the 1st round. She will have a five inch height and eight inch reach advantage. That’s going to be too much for Cifers to overcome especially on short notice and a quick turnaround.
Cifers is rugged enough to endure the full three rounds, but I don’t see her winning this. I’m taking Mariya Agapova to win this fight via unanimous decision. Go with the Over 2.5 rounds (-240).
Also keep an eye out for when online UFC betting sites release props for this fight as a wager on Agapova to win via decision could be profitable.
Mariya Agapova vs Hannah Cifers –Agapova (-245)
Over 2.5 rounds (-240)
UFC on ESPN 10 Main Card
The main card of the evening features five fights and is set to begin at 9 PM ET on ESPN and ESPN+.
Jordan Espinosa vs Mark De La Rosa
Jordan Espinosa (-165)
Mark De La Rosa (+145)
Over (-240)/Under (+200) 2.5 rounds
In the opening bout of the main card, Jordan Espinosa will come up 10 pounds to compete in this bantamweight contest against a desperate Mark De La Rosa.
MDLR is on a three fight losing streak and his UFC tenure is in jeopardy. A 4th loss in a row would mean his walking papers. De La Rosa started off his career 9-0 and earned a UFC contract. He opened up his time in the octagon with a 2-1 record before dropping to 2-4 overall.
“I’m going to take whatever he gives me, but I want to finish this fight violently. We were supposed to fight in the past and he’s super athletic. Tons of these fights we’ve seen over the last month have been finishes and I just can’t wait to get my hands on him. I’m gonna bring it.”
Espinosa is the #13 ranked flyweight and will have a 4.5 in reach advantage, but he is moving up a weight class for this contest. He’s also on a losing streak as Espinosa has dropped two fights in a row. Jordan sits 1-2 inside the octagon and 2-0 in DWTNCS appearances.
Nine of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of submission. He’s a solid scrambler and an athletic grappler. However, De La Rosa has a black belt in BJJ and solid grappling skills as well.
I am going with the upset in this fight. I like what MDLR brings to the table and he’s too talented to keep losing. I expect him to win this grappling contest inside the distance and via submission. Espinosa does have four submission losses in his career.
This fight does have a chance to go the distance, but I believe that De La Rosa will find the submission win before then. The only question is whether or not it will be Over/Under 2.5 rounds. Since I’m taking the upset with De La Rosa, I’m going to take the Under 2.5 rounds (+200) as well.
Jordan Espinosa vs Mark De La Rosa –De La Rosa (+145)
Under 2.5 rounds (+200)
Fight doesn’t go to decision (+160)
De La Rosa wins inside the distance (+325)
Andre Fili vs Charles Jourdain
Andre Fili (-225)
Charles Jourdain (+185)
Over (-170)/Under (+150) 2.5 rounds
Jourdain enters this featherweight contest as a sizable underdog. He’s currently 1-1 in the UFC having won his last fight in December 2019 via 2nd round TKO over Doo Ho Choi. All 10 of his wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO.
Fili has been with the UFC since 2013 and has a record of 7-6 inside the octagon. He last fought in January and lost via unanimous decision to Sodiq Yusuff. 12 of his 20 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO.
These two fighters lean on their striking and that should take this battle deep into the schedule three rounds. In fact, I do see this fight going the distance (-145), which means to also go with the Over 2.5 rounds (-170).
Once we go to the scorecards, I believe Jourdain is going to come away with a unanimous decision win. I like his talent and I believe he has potential for a run into the Top 15.
Andre Fili vs Charles Jourdain –Jourdain (+185)
Over 2.5 rounds (-170)
Fight goes to decision (-145)
Jourdain wins via decision (+500)
Ray Borg vs Merab Dvalishvili
Ray Borg (+330)
Merab Dvalishvili (-420)
Over (-330)/Under (+270) 2.5 rounds
This bantamweight contest could end up being the fight of the night by time it’s all said and done. These two combatants are action packed fighters who will definitely give the fans something to watch.
Ray Borg is making a one month turnaround after losing to Ricky Simon via split decision last month. He’s now 2-1 in his last three fights and 7-5 overall in the UFC.
Borg pushes the pace and is an excellent grappler and decent striker. However, there are times when he doesn’t do enough to lean on his strengths like in the last fight against Simon. With that said, Borg is determined to wash the taste of losing out of his mouth, which is why he agreed to a quick turnaround.
Merab Dvalishvili has won three straight fights and is now 3-2 in the UFC. He last fought in February and defeated Casey Kenney via unanimous decision. Dvalishvili will have a two inch height and a five inch reach advantage.
Before I give my pick for the winner, let’s go with the obvious stuff first. This fight will go Over 2.5 rounds (-330) and it will go to a decision (-275).
10 of Dvalishvili’s 14 pro fights have gone the distance including all five of his UFC contests. He’s 7-3 when going to the scorecards. Borg has gone the distance in 10 of his 18 pro fights including eight of his last nine bouts.
I’m concerned for Borg here as he was taken down seven times by Simon in their fight last month. Merab Dvalishvili is a stronger and more dominant grappler than Simon. Borg could be in trouble on the mat as he gives up size and strength to Merab. Striking is his only path to victory.
As much as I like Borg and will be rooting for the upset, any sensible bettor has to go with Merab Dvalishvili for this contest. His grappling will be too much for Borg to handle.
Ray Borg vs Merab Dvalishvili –Dvalishvili (-420)
Over 2.5 rounds (-330)
Fight goes to decision (-330)
Merab Dvalishvili wins via decision (-180)
Marvin Vettori vs Karl Robinson
Marvin Vettori (-230)
Karl Robinson (+190)
Over (-220)/Under (+180) 2.5 rounds
The co-main event of the night is a middleweight contest where the winner of this fight could end up raked in the Top 15 of the division. This is also the third time these two fighters have been scheduled to face each other.
They were originally set to fight on April 25th, but that fight was cancelled due to the pandemic. They were rebooked for May 13th, but Roberson withdrew from the fight due to issues with a weight cut. They ended up getting into a heated exchange in the hotel the next day.
“There are a lot of fights when guys talk smack, and then there’s heat … and then the fight sucks. That will not be the case with this fight. Vettori is so fun to watch fight. This guy goes for it. He goes for the finish in every fight, and Karl Roberson is the same way. This is a fight that has potential for Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night.”
Karl Roberson has won two straight fights, but hasn’t been in the octagon since last November. He’s currently 4-2 in the UFC and looking to reestablish himself in the division. Six of his nine wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission.
Vettori is 4-2-1 inside the octagon, but has never been stopped in his career. Not only does he have some heavy hands, but he also has a great takedown defense, solid grappling skills, and a full gas tank. 10 of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission.
Vettori is the only fighter to give middleweight champ Israel Adesanya a real challenge. Vettori lost via split decision and is campaigning for a rematch. With a few more wins, that goal could become a reality.
I believe Vettori is going to win this bout and I think he will do it inside the distance (+135). I don’t see this fight going the distance and I don’t see it going over 2.5 rounds (+180).
I believe Vettori is going to smother Roberson early and often, land all of his takedown attempts, and eventually score the 9th submission win of his career. Both of Roberson’s losses have come via submission. I’m more excited for this bout than the main event fight.
Marvin Vettori vs Karl Robinson –Vettori (-230)
Under 2.5 rounds (+180)
Fight doesn’t go to decision (+135)
Vettori wins inside the distance (+270)
Jessica Eye vs Cynthia Calvillo
Jessica Eye (-110)
Cynthia Calvillo (-110)
Over (-210)/Under (+175) 4.5 rounds
In the main event of the night, we have the 10th ranked strawweight Cynthia Calvillo taking on the #1 ranked flyweight Jessica Eye. MMA betting sites have a hard time figuring out who to favor in this contest as they have identical odds.
Cynthia Calvillo is moving up to flyweight for this bout after having a history of difficulties cutting weight. She can kick down the door of her new division with a big win on Saturday. Calvillo is 5-1-1 in the UFC and fought to a draw in her last contest, which was against Marina Rodriguez in December 2019.
“I think that beating Jessica Eye obviously is going to put me up there in the top five. I already beat Joanne Calderwood. She’s going up next for the title. And I already beat a couple of flyweights that are in the UFC as well.”
Eye is the number one ranked flyweight, but she lost to Valentin Shevchenko in a title fight last June. In fact, that loss was a vicious knockout via head kick that became a highlight reel.
Even with a win this weekend, she’s at least one more win away from another title shot. However, Eye doesn’t care as she’s determined to beat anyone standing in front of her until she’s challenging for the title again:
“I know where I stand with the UFC. I know where I stand with the matchmakers, I know where I stand in my training, and until I get back in front of the title, I’ll just keep fighting anybody they give me.”
11 of her 15 pro wins have come via decision. 16 of her 22 pro fights have gone the distance. Five of Calvillo’s 10 fights have gone the distance. So, it’s easy to see why this fight is heavily favored to go Over 4.5 rounds (-210). It’s going to be another decision fight (-215) for these two combatants.
The key for Calvillo is to take the fight to the mat and grapple her way to a victory. The key for Eye is to stifle the takedown attempts and use her clear striking advantage.
This is a tough choice, but I am taking Eye to win the bout. I believe she has more big fight experience, she’s the bigger fighter of the two, and she’s a better grappler than Calvillo is a striker. I’m going with Jessica Eye to win this fight via decision (+160).
Jessica Eye vs Cynthia Calvillo –Eye (-110)
Over 4.5 rounds (-210)
Fight goes to a decision (-215)
Eye wins via decision (+160)
5 Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo
The following UFC on ESPN 10 wagers are my favorite UFC bets for this weekend’s event:
Max Griffin Wins Inside the Distance (-105)
This is a bad matchup for Darrick Minner who is 1-2 in three fights with the UFC. He’s only known for his submission attempts and Minner is going up against someone stronger, who also has a better grappling game.
I can’t see how this fight goes the full three rounds. Griffin has a huge edge in striking and should be able to overpower Minner if the fight goes to the mat.
Mark De La Rosa (+145)
I’m taking the upset in this contest. Both men come in on a multi-fight losing streak, but Mark De La Rosa is on the verge of being fired. One more loss and he’s tossed from the UFC. With that said, I believe he will have more desperation and look crisp in this grappling battle.
Espinosa is 7-4 in fights with submission outcomes. De La Rosa is 6-1 in fights determined by submission outcomes. I believe MDRL will show off his submission skills on Saturday and prove that he belongs in the UFC.
Merab Dvalishvili Wins via Decision (-180)
Merab Dvalishvili is the stronger and more efficient grappler between the two. This should allow him to have control for most of the fight where he will walk away with a decision. I don’t see either man making a big mistake and suffering a stoppage loss.
Merab Dvalishvili has gone the distance in 10 of his 14 pro fights and sports a record of 7-3. Borg has gone the distance in eight of his last nine fights and has a 6-4 record when going to a decision.
With that said, I believe Merab Dvalishvili will get the decision victory in this grappling battle.
Marvin Vettori Wins Inside the Distance (+270)
In my opinion, Vettori is the better overall fighter between himself and Karl Roberson. He has a bigger gas tank, is a heavy hitter, and is the better grappler. I believe he will pressure Roberson right away and take him down where he will begin the onslaught until he finds a submission or a TKO.
Jessica Eye Wins via Decision (+160)
21 of their 32 combined fights have gone the distance, which gives me the utmost confidence that this main event fight will go the full five rounds. In fact, Jessica eye hasn’t had a victory inside the distance since November 2014.
Calvillo has never been stopped in her career, so I don’t see her eating any knockout shots on Saturday, which also leads to this fight going the distance. She’s 3-1 in decisions and Eye is 11-5 in decisions.
I believe Eye earns enough points with her jabs and well-timed strikes while also stuffing most of Calvillo’s takedown attempts.
Final Thoughts for UFC on ESPN 10
Other than the main event for this MMA show, I do like the rest of the main card. There’s some exciting matchups that should provide fans with a solid night of entertainment. In particular, I’m looking forward to the Fili vs Jourdain fight as it has the potential for “Fight of the Night” honors.
I’m also looking forward to Vettori versus Roberson in the co-main event. This fight features a feud and two athletes looking to crack the Top 15 for the middleweight division.
As for the betting action, there’s plenty of options to wager on. From my favorite bets to a plethora of choices, sports bettors will definitely have betting choices for this UFC event.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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