UFC on ESPN 27: Sandhagen vs Dillashaw Betting Odds & Main Card Picks

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UFC on ESPN 27 Main Card Fighters and Logo

On Saturday, July 24th, UFC’s Apex Center will be rocking with a loaded lineup featuring a bantamweight showdown between the #2 ranked Cory Sandhagen and former world champion TJ Dillashaw.

In addition to the main event, UFC on ESPN 27: Sandhagen vs Dillashaw, also known as UFC Vegas 32, will have a Top 10 women’s bantamweight co-featured contest as #3 Aspen Ladd takes on #10 Macy Chiasson.

This main card will have two more Top 15 ranked fights as #13 Miranda Maverick takes on #14 Maycee Barber in a flyweight bout and the 14th ranked bantamweight Kyler Phillips takes on the 12th ranked flyweight Raulian Paiva in a second men’s ranked bantamweight contest.

In total, the UFC on ESPN 27 main card is scheduled for six fights with a start time of 7pm ET on ESPN and ESPN+. Prior to the main card action, UFC Vegas 32 will have a jam-packed preliminary lineup starting at 4pm ET.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the current odds from the best UFC betting sites, identify any value, and TKO these predictions with a flying knee.

Mickey Gall (6-3) vs. Jordan Williams (9-4)

  • Mickey Gall (-175)
  • Jordan Williams (+150)
  • Over (-110)/Under (-120) 2.5 rounds

Prior to debuting with the UFC last fall, Williams had five fights that put him on the promotion’s radar. He had two in Bellator where he won both via TKO. Then he had three appearances on DWCS.

The first appearance was in 2018 and it was eventually changed to a No Contest. The second appearance came in 2019 and he lost via split decision. However, he was brought back in September 2020 and won via 1st round KO.

That DWCS victory earned Williams a UFC shot one month later which he ended up losing via decision to Nassourdine Imavov.

Eight of his nine pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 1-2 when going the distance.

I don’t know what it is about Mickey Gall that the UFC continues to showcase him on main cards. Yes, he has some talent, but there are more impressive matchups on the prelims that deserve this spot over Gall vs Williams.

With that said, Gall is 5-3 inside the octagon but 2-3 in his last five bouts. He last competed 13 months ago and lost via decision to Mike Perry. His last win came in August 2019 when he beat Salim Touahri via decision.

Five of his six pro wins have come via submission. He’s 1-2 when going the distance.

Although he has zero professional wins via knockout, Gall envisions getting the TKO/KO victory this weekend over Williams:

“I’d like to get a knockout. I can see the knockout. I can see me putting him unconscious, but like I said, I think I can beat him anywhere. He’s a durable dude. If we go three rounds, we go three rounds. I’ll win every round, put my hands on him. It’s gonna be good. He’s a tough kid. He’s a warrior, but I think I can win the fight in any facet where it goes. If we’re on the ground, if we’re wrestling, if we’re on the feet. I can submit him, but I think the knockout’s coming. I wanna get some knockouts. It’s about time I got some knockouts.”

Despite his desire to score a knockout, I don’t see it happening. Instead, I see the bout going Over 2.5 rounds (-110) and the full 15 minutes.

Williams has never been forced to tap out in his career and Gall has never knocked someone out in a pro fight. Furthermore, I do see Gall winning this contest but via decision.

There’s plenty of value with the Over/Under and the prop bet for the fight going the distance.

UFC Bet: Mickey Gall (-175)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-110)

Fight Goes to a Decision (+110)

Gall Wins via Decision (+400)

Maycee Barber (8-2) vs. Miranda Maverick (9-2)

  • Maycee Barber (+120)
  • Miranda Maverick (-140)
  • Over (-225)/Under (+170) 2.5 rounds

This bout is a battle of Top 15 ranked women’s flyweights.

The 14th ranked Maycee Barber enters this contest as the slight underdog. She started off her career 4-0 and earned a shot on DWCS three years ago which she won via TKO.

Then Barber got off to a fast start inside the octagon with three straight wins via TKO over fighters like Hannah Cifers, JJ Aldrich, and Gillian Robertson.

Unfortunately, her winning streak was snapped in January 2020 when she lost to Roxanne Modafferi via decision. Maycee then lost a second consecutive bout 13 months later via decision. This time to Alexa Grasso. She hasn’t competed since then.

Seven of her eight pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. She’s 1-2 when going the distance and has never been stopped in her pro career.

Barber made the following comments about her upcoming opponent:

“I have seen a couple of her fights before she got into the UFC. Her debut was an early doctor stoppage win. Then she beat Gillian by decision and I finished Gillian. I’m excited, Miranda’s tough. But to me, I think she is the earlier version of me that had just got into the UFC. We do have similar styles, we are both super tough but I’m the more mature fighter. I’m just excited about it and I feel great about it.”

The 13th ranked Miranda Maverick has won five straight bouts including both of her appearances inside the octagon.

She made her UFC debut last October and beat Liana Jojua via TKO due to a doctor’s stoppage. Miranda followed that up with a decision win over Gillian Robertson in March.

Six of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. She’s 3-2 when going the distance. Both of her career losses have come via decision.

Maverick believes that a win this weekend and a few more over the next year will put her in the title scene:

“Really, if they wanted to I could win the next fight and then be fighting for the title, but I would guess in another year or so three or four fights possibly down the road, I will get to fight for that title.”

Since neither woman has lost via stoppage, I am taking this bout to go Over 2.5 rounds (-225) and the full distance (-200). At that point, I like Maverick to squeak out the split decision victory.

UFC Bet: Miranda Maverick (-140)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-225)

Fight Goes to a Decision (-200)

Maverick Wins via Decision (+120)

Darren Elkins (25-9) vs. Darrick Minner (26-11)

  • Darren Elkins (+130)
  • Darrick Minner (-155)
  • Over (-130)/Under (+105) 2.5 rounds

UFC veteran Darren Elkins will step inside the octagon for the 24th time in his career. He currently has a 15-8 record in the UFC and was at one time one of the top fighters in the division.

A six fight win streak from 2015 to 2018 put Elkins near the top of the division, but then he succumbed to a four fight losing streak with losses to Volkanovski, Lamas, Hall and Landwehr.

With his UFC job on the line, Elkins snapped that losing streak last November by defeating Garagorri via 3rd round submission.

13 of his 25 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 12-5 when going the distance.

Elkins recognizes that he has to adapt or he will be left behind by this new wave of exciting talent. His mission is to get back into the Top 15 once again and that could become more of a reality if he can pick up the win this weekend:

“There’s a lot of new guys, that’s exciting. All the new guys in the top 10, top 15, and I’m just trying to work my way back there. I got a while to get there, but I’d like to just get back to the top 15 and whatever opponents that one by one get me there, that’s what I want to do.”

Minner had 31 pro fights before finally appearing on DWCS which he ended up losing via 1st round submission to Herbert Burns, brother of Gilbert Burns.

The loss kept him out of the UFC for another six months, but he did score two regional wins before finally making his octagon debut. Unfortunately, he went up against the talented Grant Dawson and lost via 2nd round submission.

Minner would bounce back with two straight UFC wins including his last bout which came in February over Charles Rosa via decision.

23 of his 26 pro wins have come via stoppage with 22 by way of submission. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.

I’m having a hard time deciding how this fight will end. I can’t decide if it will be via decision or stoppage. Either way, I like Minner in this matchup.

Although he went the distance in his last fight, that was the first time in 14 contests that Minner has gone the distance. Elkins has three decisions in his last six bouts.

With that said, I’m taking Minner to win this fight via decision. Elkins has only been stopped once in his career via decision. 17 of his 34 pro fights have gone the distance.

Furthermore, three of his last four losses were all via decision. The lone loss was via TKO to Ricardo Lamas and Minner isn’t the striker that Lamas is.

UFC Bet: Darrick Minner (-155)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-130)

Fight Goes to a Decision (-115)

Minner Wins via Decision (+230)

Raulian Paiva (20-3) vs. Kyler Phillips (9-1)

  • Raulian Paiva (+220)
  • Kyler Phillips (-290)
  • Over (-230)/Under (+100) 2.5 rounds

Paiva rode an 11 fight winning streak into a DWCS appearance in August 2018 where he won via split decision over Allan Nascimento.

He then made his UFC debut in early 2019 and would quickly drop his first two fights to Kai Kara France via split decision and Rogerio Bontorin via TKO due to a cut.

Paiva bounced back from those losses to win two in a row and even up his UFC record to .500. He defeated Mark De La Rosa in February 2020 via 2nd round KO and then beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov via decision in July 2020. He hasn’t fought since then.

The 12th ranked flyweight, Paiva was supposed to fight last October, but suffered a torn knee ligament. He was set to return in May, but was hospitalized due to a rough weight cut.

Seven of his 20 pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. He’s 13-1 when going the distance.

Due to issues with cutting weight, the UFC threw him a bone to move up to bantamweight and take on Kyler Phillips:

“Having to heavily restrict my diet for more than two months before each bout was a real challenge, so I couldn’t pass up the opportunity the UFC gave me, to move to bantamweight and face a ranked opponent, Kyler Phillips. With a win, I’ll be ranked in my new weight class upon my debut. I’m very ready and motivated to make that happen.”

Phillips is ranked 14th in the bantamweight division and is a prospect on the rise. He’s also the largest betting favorite for the main card and the second largest odds on favorite for the entire UFC event.

Phillips made his UFC debut in February 2020 and beat Gabriel Silva via decision. He followed that up with a 2nd round TKO win over Cameron Else. Kyler’s last fight came in March where he beat Yadong Song via decision.

Six of his nine pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.

Phillips made the following comments about his opponent:

“He’s a man that’s ranked number 12 at flyweight. He’s a big dude that couldn’t make weight at 125. In his last win, he weighed in at 129. He’s probably put some weight on and he’s taking it seriously and I know he will be trying to come for my head. Let’s bring it, I can’t wait for him to try to take my head off because I’m going to bring it too.”

These two men have very similar skill sets which leads me to believe we’re going Over 2.5 rounds (-230) and the full distance (-200).

For Kyler, two of his three UFC fights have gone to a decision. For Paiva, 14 of his 23 pro bouts have gone the distance.

Once with the judges, I am giving Phillips the win via decision (-105) which offers solid value. However, I must point out that Paiva is a live dog in this matchup and could score an upset on Saturday. For the risktakers, he’s worthy of a small flier.

UFC Bet: Kyler Phillips (-290)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-230)

Fight Goes to a Decision (-200)

Phillips Wins via Decision (-105)

Aspen Ladd (9-1) vs. Macy Chiasson (7-1)

  • Aspen Ladd (-190)
  • Macy Chiasson (+150)
  • Over (-180)/Under (+140) 2.5 rounds

The co-main event of the night is a Top 10 matchup in the women’s bantamweight division.

The 10th ranked Macy Chiasson comes in as a sizable underdog. She made her UFC debut in late 2018 and beat Pannie Kianzad via 2nd round submission. Macy scored two more wins in a row with both coming via TKO.

A loss to Lina Lansberg via decision snapped her three fight win streak. However, she bounced back from that defeat and has won two in a row via decision which brings her record to 5-1 inside the octagon.

Four of her seven pro wins have come via stoppage with two apiece for submission and TKO/KO. She’s 3-1 when going the distance.

The 3rd ranked Aspen Ladd was 5-0 after a run in Invicta FC which earned her a shot with the UFC in the fall of 2017. She got off to a hot start with the promotion by winning her first three fights.

Unfortunately, she was derailed by Germaine de Randamie with a vicious 1st round TKO. But, she then bounced back with a 3rd round TKO win over Yana Kunitskaya in December 2019. Due to an injury, Ladd hasn’t competed since then.

Seven of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. She’s 2-0 when going the distance.

Despite both women combing to tally 11 stoppages in 21 pro fights, I actually like this bout to go the full 15 minutes. I believe the two will nullify each other’s strengths. More than likely, Ladd’s ground control will be a big reason why she picks up the decision victory.

Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-180) and for the fight to go the distance (-170).

UFC Bet: Aspen Ladd (-190)

Over 2.5 Rounds (-180)

Fight Goes to a Decision (-170)

Ladd Wins via Decision (+150)

Cory Sandhagen (14-2) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (16-4)

  • Cory Sandhagen (-200)
  • J. Dillashaw (+160)
  • Over (+100)/Under (-130) 2.5 rounds

For the first time in 2 ½ years, Dillashaw returns to the octagon to compete. The former bantamweight champion last fought against Henry Cejudo in January 2019 and lost via 1st round TKO. He failed drug tests from that contest and was promptly suspended.

TJ owns up to the choice of trying to cheat and feels good that all of it is not weighing him down anymore. Furthermore, he believes this bout with Sandhagen is the real bantamweight title fight:

“This is the real title fight. I think the fight between me and Cory is the real title fight. Watching Aljamain and Petr fight, I wasn’t very impressed. I know Aljamain beat Cory but I wasn’t impressed with his last performance. So I think this is the real title fight here, I get to come out and prove myself on it.”

Before the Cejudo loss, Dillashaw had won four straight fights including two against Cody Garbrandt which earned him the bantamweight championship. 11 of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-2 when going the distance.

Sandhagen has been very critical of TJ’s failed drug tests and considers it gross as to what Dillashaw did:

“TJ has to live with TJ’s decisions. I have to live with my decisions, but it is a little bit gross, in my opinion, to put yourself in an illegal advantage in a one-on-one combat scenario, in something you really love. If there’s a word for it, it’s kinda just gross.”

Sandhagen last fought in February and crushed Frankie Edgar via 1st round KO in 28 seconds. It was his second straight TKO/KO win since losing to Sterling via 1st round submission in June 2020. Cory is 7-1 inside the octagon and poised for a title shot if he can win this weekend.

Nine of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-1 when going the distance and has one submission loss.

Sandhagen has never been stopped by TKO/KO and Dillashaw doesn’t have the ground game to force Cory to tap out.

So, this bout will either come down to a Sandhagen stoppage or a full 25 minute fight.

I have a hard time seeing Dillashaw go the full 25 minutes against an elite fighter in his first appearance back. Yes, he’s a talented fighter, but Sandhagen will have a large height and reach advantage along with the grappling advantage.

I see Cory wearing down TJ in this bout and finding a late round stoppage via TKO. Go with the betting option on the Over 2.5 rounds (+100) but for the fight to ends inside the distance (-230).

UFC Bet: Cory Sandhagen (-200)

Over 2.5 Rounds (+100)

Fight Ends Inside the Distace (-115)

Sandhagen Wins Inside the Distance (-115)

Sandhagen Wins via TKO/KO (+135)

Fight starts round 4 (-105)

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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