UFC Prop Bet: Will McGregor vs Nurmagomedov Go the Distance?
By now, all fight fans have heard the exciting news that Conor McGregor is making his long awaited return to the UFC and will take on the undefeated lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 on October 6th. This super-fight will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. You can expect the return of Notorious to not only draw PPV buys, but to also draw a lot of betting action.
In addition to betting on the winner of this huge fight, there’s one particular prop bet that’s really drawing some attention amongst sports bettors – whether or not this fight will go the distance. Let’s examine this UFC prop bet further to see how best to lay our money:
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UFC 229: McGregor vs Nurmagomedov Prop Bet
According to 5Dimes, the odds for whether or not this fight goes the full 5 rounds are as follows:
- Yes, it will go the distance (+225)
- No, it will finish inside of 5 rounds (-305)
McGregor’s Fight Record Analysis
Conor “Notorious” McGregor has a pro record of 21-3. In his 24 career fights, McGregor’s only gone the full distance on two separate occasions:
- Against Nate Diaz at UFC 202
- Against Max Holloway at UFC Fight Night 26
McGregor won both of those fights. However, it goes to show that Conor almost always finishes his octagon battles within the distance. In fact, outside of those two bouts, McGregor has never even gone into the final round of a fight.
Fight Record Analysis for Nurmagomedov
Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov remains undefeated in his pro fight career at 26-0. Over that span, Nurmagomedov has gone the distance on 10 occasions including his last fight against Al laquinta for the vacant UFC lightweight title. For those math lovers out there, Nurmagomedov goes the distance in roughly 38% of his fights. If you are familiar with his preferred fight style, then you know that going the distance is just part of his ground and pound, mat grinding repertoire.
UFC 229 Prop Bet Prediction
After adding up the two fighters’ total bouts of going the distance and dividing that by the total amount of fights in their respective careers, you come up with 24%. That’s roughly how many times these two fighters go the distance. Obviously, that number is largely due to Nurmagomedov’s career than Conor’s.
What makes this championship fight so exciting is the contrasting fight styles between these two MMA superstars. As mentioned above, Nurmagomedov has a ground game that he excels at and will grind out the wins as he pummels his opponents on the mat. McGregor is more of a stand-up striker with 18 of his 21 wins coming via KO/TKO. That’s a staggering rate of 86%.
However, McGregor’s 3 career losses have all been via submission as he’s gotten into trouble when taken down to the mat. So, it’s going to come down to whether or not McGregor can avoid spending most of the fight on the ground.
With that said, McGregor likes to push the action as evident by 22 of his 24 career fights not even going into the final round of the fight. So, I expect Conor to be cautious in this bout, but aggressively look for a knockout shot. I don’t see this fight going the distance.
UFC 229: McGregor vs Nurmagomedov Fight Odds
Just about all of the reputable sportsbooks have Conor McGregor listed as the underdog. However, how big of an underdog seems to vary with each oddsmaker. Since, I used 5Dimes for the prop bet listed above, I’m going to stick with them for the fight odds below:
- McGregor (+155)
- Nurmagomedov (-175)
Now, that I’ve laid the ground work for how far the fight will go, my early prediction for the winner is Conor McGregor. I think Nurmagomedov is an excellent fighter, but he’s going up against an opponent with superior striking skills. For McGregor to win this fight, he will have to try and land an early knockout. It’s common knowledge that Conor tends to fade later in fights, if they go that far. Nurmagomedov tends to never wear down, no matter how far the fight goes. And, if it goes into the latter rounds, Khabib’s pressure will overwhelm McGregor and eventually Nurmagomedov’s top control will win the fight.
With that said, I believe McGregor wouldn’t even take this fight if he wasn’t mentally and physically prepared for it. McGregor was rumored to have made $100 million dollars in his fight against Mayweather Jr. So, he’s all about taking the big-named fights that will make him money and set records.
Additionally, UFC legend Georges St-Pierre wants to take on the winner of McGregor and Nurmagomedov. That’s another massive payday and record setting fight waiting for McGregor if he were to defeat Nurmagomedov. For the McGregor hype train to keep rolling along, he needs to keep winning.
Bottom line, Notorious will get into Khabib’s head before the fight and I believe that will turn this bout into a circus once the fight starts. Obviously, this favors McGregor. However, if any fighter can handle the mind games, it should be Nurmagomedov. He’s the closest thing we have to a real life MMA machine.
In the end, I believe McGregor will catch Nurmagomedov with a massive shot during one of Khabib’s takedown attempts. That will be the difference in the fight. McGregor will win and set UFC records in the process.