On Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots won their respective conference championship games and will now face each other in Super Bowl 53 with the winner becoming this year’s NFL Champion. Both teams were the underdogs in their matchups and both overcame hostile environments to win in thrilling overtime fashion.
After the Patriots defeated Kansas City in overtime, NFL sportsbooks released their updated Super Bowl LIII betting lines and had New England as the slight favorite. This was a quick reversal for some betting sites that opened with the Rams as the favorite.
Since then, the Super Bowl 53 betting lines have seen a significant movement due to sharp bettors getting in on the early action and, now, the Patriots are the clear betting favorites.
Super Bowl 53 Betting Line Movement
During the AFC Championship game, the Rams were a slight favorite over the Patriots and the Chiefs for Super Bowl LIII. However, that quickly changed after the Patriots defeated the Chiefs in OT. New England became a 1-point favorite over Los Angeles. In fact, as most of America went to sleep on Sunday night, the Patriots maintained their slight 1-point advantage.
However, by the time the majority of Americans woke up on Monday, the betting lines had seen another noticeable shift toward New England. Additionally, overnight betting action also moved the Total Points line for the game. Let’s take a closer look at these movements.
By Monday morning, the Patriots went from a 1-point favorite up to a 2.5-point favorite at some online betting sites and Las Vegas sportsbooks. That spread has settled down at 2-points in favor of New England with most NFL sportsbooks.
It’s believed that sharp bettors laid some early wagers that caused the line to double in favor of Tom Brady and the Patriots. This is a major reversal from the Super Bowl 36 matchup when the Rams were a 14-point favorite over New England. As we all know by now, the Patriots won that Super Bowl and kicked off the Brady – Belichick dynasty.
Prior to the Conference Championship games, most online betting sites saw the Rams vs Patriots as a Pick game with an Over/Under of 57.5 total points. However, after watching Brady drive down the field to win the game in OT, oddsmakers quickly positioned New England as the betting favorite.
The Over/Under initially opened anywhere from 58 to 59 total points depending on the internet sportsbook of choice. By the next day, the O/U has come down to a range of 57.5 to 58 total points per game.
Apparently, the early action was on the Under. That makes sense considering the Rams defense held the Saints to just 23 points, while the Patriots needed a flurry of 4th quarter scoring and OT to finish with 37 points.
Previous Betting Odds to Win Super Bowl 53
Leading up to the Conference Championship games, the Rams were considered the biggest longshot to win Super Bowl LIII. According to Bovada, the Saints were the odds on favorites followed by the Chiefs, Patriots, and Rams.
New Orleans Saints (+175)
Kansas City Chiefs (+275)
New England Patriots (+333)
Los Angeles Rams (+350)
Currently, the Patriots are listed with a -137 moneyline to win Super Bowl 53 and the Rams are a +117 underdog.
Super Bowl Betting Trends to Consider
With all of the line movement in the first 24 hours, it can be a bit daunting to determine which Super Bowl wager to put your money on. One aspect to examine is Super Bowl betting trends. This can help NFL bettors get an idea of what’s happened in the past, to determine if history will repeat itself.
In the previous 52 Super Bowls, the NFC has a slight advantage over the AFC with a record of 27-25. The NFC is also 27-23-2 against the spread throughout Super Bowl history.
The Underdogs have gone 13-4 against the spread over the last 17 Super Bowls, including 8-3 over the last 11. Five of the last six Super Bowls have seen the Over hit. We’ll take a deeper dive into Super Bowl betting trends in a future article.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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