Week 3 AAF Betting Preview: Odds, Matchups, and More
Week 2 was another successful round of games for the Alliance of American Football. There was exciting action in just about every game, and some memorable plays that even sparked a social media buzz from NFL players. This week, the teams return to conference play as Birmingham, Orlando, and Arizona all look to remain undefeated on the season. Memphis, Atlanta, and Salt Lake are all looking for their first wins of the season.
According to the AAF betting sites, Orlando is the biggest betting favorite of the weekend while the Fleet and the Commanders have the closest spread in week 3. Let’s take a deeper dive into these AAF matchups to examine the AAF betting odds, identify potential betting value, and make some picks.
Updated AAF Standings
After two weeks, the cream of the crop is starting to rise to the top of the AAF as we see the disparity in level of talent throughout the league. In the Western Conference, the Arizona Hotshots are establishing themselves as the conference’s best. Don’t forget, they were Vegas oddsmakers’ betting favorite to win the AAF championship. In the Eastern Conference, the Orlando Apollos and the Birmingham Iron are pulling away from the Express and the Legends. Which teams will remain undefeated after week 3 has concluded?
Arizona Hotshots vs Salt Lake Stallions
Week 3 kicks off with the top seed in the West (Arizona), taking on the conference’s only team to have not won a game yet (Salt Lake), in a rematch from week 1. The Hotshots appear to have enough talent on both sides of the ball to be a legitimate threat to run away with the conference before the halfway mark in the season. Will the Stallions play consistent for all four quarters and get a big upset victory or will the Hotshots run roughshod for the third straight week? Kickoff inside Rice-Eccles Stadium is at 3 PM ET. The game will be streamed on B/R Live. Here are the betting odds.
|Arizona Hotshots||-4.5 (-115)||Over 44.5 (-110)|
|Salt Lake Stallions||+4.5 (-105)||Under 44.5 (-110)|
Arizona (2-0) comes into this matchup having won both of their games and establishing themselves as the best in the west. Last week, they had to come from behind to win at Memphis. The perseverance shows that this team has all of the ingredients to become one of the AAF’s best.
— Arizona Hotshots (@aafhotshots) February 18, 2019
Utah (0-2) comes into this matchup needing a win badly. If they lose, then they’re at least two games out of the second playoff spot. There’s still time to turn the season around and hit their stride, but a loss this weekend will really stunt their chances in the West. Salt Lake is hoping their home opener will lead to a better outcome than the first two weeks on the road. But, they will need to produce more points on offense to have a prayer in this matchup.
Hotshots vs Stallions Betting Prediction: Arizona -4.5 (-115)
Salt Lake has shown poise on defense, but they’re struggling on offense. The Stallions are averaging just 15.5 ppg and have a hard time throwing the ball with a total of 257 passing yards in two games. Defensively, they’re giving up 218 passing ypg and 98 rushing ypg. But, this weekend, they face one of the best teams in the Alliance of American Football.
Arizona is averaging 29 ppg, 221 passing ypg, and 179 rushing yards per game. They can score at will on opponents even when they struggle like last week. Against Memphis, the Hotshots had a terrible first half on offense but stormed back in the second half to win the game. Arizona scored two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to seal the comeback and remain undefeated.
This weekend, they’re going up against a middle of the pack defense, which bodes well for the Hotshots offense. On defense, Arizona has held opponents to 106.5 passing ypg, which is the best in the league.
I don’t see the Stallions being able to hang with the Hotshots on the scoreboard. Salt Lake will keep it close for a half, but Arizona will eventually pull away and win by at least a touchdown. This offense is too good to be bottled up two weeks in a row. I see Arizona coming close to their season average of 29 ppg.
Memphis Express vs Orlando Apollos
Memphis appears to be its own worst enemy. And, now, they have to travel to Orlando to take on the Eastern Conference’s best team. Will the Express get back on track or will the Apollos blow out Memphis in Saturday’s primetime game? Kickoff inside Spectrum Stadium is at 8 PM ET, and the game will be televised on the NFL Network. Betting odds are provided below.
|Memphis Express||+15.5 (-105)||Over 45 (-110)|
|Orlando Apollos||-15.5 (-115)||Under 45 (-110)|
Memphis (0-2) comes into this matchup having played three quarters of great football last weekend before collapsing in the 4th quarter and losing at home to Arizona. They’ve shown incredible patience with Christian Hackenberg at QB, but the young player is struggling. Memphis might have to lean more on the running game with Zac Stacy and their defense in order to make up for any passing deficiencies this weekend.
Orlando (2-0) has an explosive offense and a solid defense that has played up to its preseason potential. Spurrier has this team firing on all cylinders, and they’re definitely looking like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. With that said, the Express are a desperate team, and Orlando can’t take them lightly.
Express vs Apollos Betting Prediction: Memphis +15.5 (-105)
After two games, it’s clear that the Memphis Express have issues on offense. In fact, they’re the worst offense in the league so far as they’re only averaging nine ppg, and that’s after being shut out in the first week. If Memphis wants to turn things around, they have to do it at the QB position. Right now, they’re averaging a league-low 80 passing yards per game.
For Memphis to have any chance, they need to put their offense in the hands of running back Zac Stacy. For the season, Stacy has 159 rushing yards, one rushing TD, and an average of 5.1 yards per carry. Additionally, Orlando is giving up 127.5 rushing yards per game, which bodes well for Stacy and the Memphis offense.
Orlando is a juggernaut on offense. They have scored 38.5 ppg and have had a lot of success through passing the ball. QB Garett Gilbert has been an early candidate for AAF MVP as he’s thrown for 620 yards, four TDs, zero INTs, and a completion percentage of 64.2 through the first two weeks. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to run the ball as well. Orlando only averages 101.5 ypg.
I don’t see Orlando scoring their average this game. I believe Memphis will employ a similar style like they did to the high scoring Arizona offense last weekend. Look for the Express to control the clock with a heavy rushing attack. I’m betting that Memphis will keep this game close but come up short for a second straight weekend.
Birmingham Iron vs Atlanta Legends
In the early game on Sunday, the undefeated Birmingham Iron head out on the road for the first time this season as they take on the Atlanta Legends, who will play in their first home game of the season. The Iron loves to play a physical, smashing style of football. Will Atlanta be able to hold up against the Iron’s toughness? Kickoff inside Georgia State Stadium is at 4 PM ET, and the game will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
|Birmingham Iron||-6.5 (-110)||Over 39 (-110)|
|Atlanta Legends||+6.5 (-110)||Under 39 (-110)|
Birmingham (2-0) has one of the best defenses in the league as they’ve held their first two opponents to a combined nine total points. We could have the AAF’s version of the “black shirts” on defense as this unit has been impressive under head coach Tim Lewis. Birmingham’s defense is being dubbed the “Iron Curtain,” and for good reason. This weekend, they’re going up against an inferior team and could put up impressive numbers for a third straight week.
Atlanta (0-2) is tied with Memphis for having the worst offense in the AAF. They’re only averaging nine points per game and have one of the worst rushing attacks at just 81 yards per game. Additionally, they’ve also had poor QB play with Matt Simms at the helm. Also like Memphis, this team seems to be held back by inconsistent quarterbacking. Will they be able to bounce back in their first home game of the season?
Iron vs Legends Betting Prediction: Under 39 points (-110)
Combined, these two teams average 28 ppg. With that said, I just don’t see how they will score 40 points or more. Although this total is the lowest of the weekend, I don’t see these two teams scoring many touchdowns.
The Legends have a poor defense as well. However, they do play decent against the pass as they only allow 177 ypg. But, they give up 161 rushing yards per game, which has Birmingham’s Trent Richardson drooling over potential for a big game. He does have three rushing TDs on the day.
If this game does come down to a low scoring affair, I believe the Iron have the advantage in special teams as well. They have former NFL studs Colton Schmidt as a punter and Novak as a kicker.
Birmingham’s QB Louis Perez has been a big surprise for the team and the league. Although he doesn’t have a passing TD, he’s been masterful as the offense’s leader and has no turnovers. Atlanta will have to bring the pressure to disrupt Perez in the pocket. On the season, the Legends have fared well with their defensive front. Can they continue that this weekend?
Atlanta is quite possibly the worst team in the AAF, and Birmingham has one of the best defenses in the league. I’m not confident in betting on the Iron winning by 7 or more points as this could easily be a FG kicking battle. But, I do like the Under 39 total points as these two offense just don’t put up a lot of points.
San Antonio Commanders vs San Diego Fleet
The Commanders and Fleet are playing in a rematch from week 1 and look to get a big conference win and try to keep pace with the Hotshots. With second place in the West on the line, will we get the same result from week 1 or will the Fleet get revenge? Kickoff inside SDCCU Stadium is at 8 PM ET on Sunday night. NFL Network will televise this AAF matchup.
|San Antonio Commanders||+2 (-110)||Over 43.5 (-110)|
|San Diego Fleet||-2 (-110)||Under 43.5 (-110)|
San Antonio (1-1) is coming off a tough loss to Orlando at home last weekend. The Commanders jumped out to a 12-0 lead, but finished 18-17 at the half. They then gave up another 17 in the 4th quarter to lose the game 37-29. Fortunately for the Commanders, they’re playing the Fleet who they beat in week 1. However, this time they will be on the road. Can they have the same success as their first encounter?
San Diego (1-1) bounced back last weekend by soundly beating the Atlanta Legends at home. They did this with solid defense and a bruising rushing attack led by Ja’Quan Gardner who had 104 yards and two TDs. I said it last week, and I will say it again, the Fleet need to ride Gardner all game long. This week, they’re playing against a tougher defense, but the Commanders are prone to giving up big plays on the ground.
Commanders vs Fleet Betting Prediction: Under 43.5 (-110)
For San Diego to win this game, they will need to establish the run. With inconsistent play at QB, despite switching QBs, the Fleet must rely on Gardner and his backfield mates to move the chains and put them ahead on early downs.
For the Commanders to win, they will need QB Logan Woodside to play more consistently. He has three INTs and one TD this season so far. He’s also only completing 50% of his passes. However, he has averaged 239 ypg, which could bode well this weekend. San Antonio also has a reliable rushing attack led by Farrow and Green. The team averages 150 ypg on the ground.
This game should come down to whichever team can run the ball more successfully and whichever QB can manage the game. In their first encounter, the final score was 15 to 6. Combined, they average 37 total ppg. I see this contest being another low scoring game, which makes the Under the smart bet in this matchup.
As for who I think will win, I like what I’ve seen from San Diego’s running game and defense more than San Antonio’s. I think the Fleet can get revenge and win this game if they can slow down the Commanders’ front four. They can also kill San Antonio with no-look passes!
— The Alliance (@TheAAF) February 18, 2019
AAF Week 3 Betting Predictions
- Arizona Hotshots 28 – Salt Lake Stallions 17 (Arizona -4.5)
- Orlando Apollos 22 – Memphis Express 17 (Memphis +15.5)
- Birmingham Iron 20 – Atlanta Legends 17 (Under 39)
- San Diego Fleet 18 – San Antonio Commanders 15 (Under 43.5)