Week six of the 2017 NFL season is already underway with the Eagles upending the Panthers on Thursday Night Football. Along with some potential earning in betting on that contest, NFL bettors also had the opportunity to make some cash off of TNF prop bets.
There were a handful of NFL prop bets worth targeting in that game and we wrote up a preview with some of our picks. We ended up almost breaking even (3-4) and some of the props barely missed.
LeGarrette Blount almost scored a touchdown multiple times and actually did find his way in for a 2-point conversion. Cam Newton missed his touchdown mark by one score (he actually had a second one on the ground) and failed his yardage prop by literally 11 yards.
There were some close calls, but a 3-4 record on the night wasn’t a total loss. There are even more exciting NFL props to consider for the rest of week six, with a few bordering on political. Let’s dive in for our favorite 10 week six wagers:
Deshaun Watson Touchdown Pass Total
Watson has been truly unleashed, as the rookie quarterback has been ablaze for the Houston Texans lately. Bovada wonders if that hot run will lead him to more success in week six in the form of 2+ touchdown passes:
- Over 2 +125
- Under 2 -165
It’s important to note that we’re betting just on touchdown passes here. I’d love the value even more if it was simply touchdowns in general, due to Watson’s elite rushing ability. It’s still value to attack, regardless, as Watson has put up 4 and 5 touchdown passes over his last two starts and has 2+ in three straight games.
Watson’s form has been fantastic, but he’s also got a dream matchup this week against a Cleveland Browns defense that ranks 19th against the pass. I like his chances to put up solid numbers and 2+ scores should be in order.
There are actually more Deshaun Watson prop bets to consider this week. Topbet.eu has two fun options, one offering a -105 line for him topping 250 passing yards (we vote yes there) and another totaling his TD+INT count at 3+.
If we’re going for the 2+ scores at Bovada, we can double down with the -160 “yes” play at TB, too
Will Ben Roethlisberger Throw a Pick in Week 6?
Big Ben has struggled so bad that Bovada has pushed out a Ben Roethlisberger retirement prop bet. We don’t think this is his last year, but he’s opened 2017 with an ugly start, putting just 6 touchdowns up against 7 interceptions.
Is he again in danger of tossing a pick on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs?
- Yes -190
- No +145
There are a few narratives to consider here. For one, Ben Roethlisberger has a history of struggling outside of Heinz Field. He’s also in a really tough environment against a 5-0 Chiefs team that also happens to have a pretty good defense.
After throwing five picks last week, most won’t find it easy to bet on Big Ben throwing 0 in an even worse situation. You won’t find us betting that way, either.
Roethlisberger has actually avoided throwing even one pick in two different games this year, but he’s also thrown at least one three times. His recent form and a tough road matchup demand at least one pick this week.
Eli Manning Passing Yardage Total
Things aren’t looking great for Eli Manning and the Giants right now. The veteran pass lost Odell Beckham Jr. for the year and now he has to go into Denver to take on a tough Broncos defense.
As brutal as this week’s matchup is, Bovada wonders if he can still pass for at least 231 yards:
- Over 230.5 Yards +105
- Under 230.5 Yards -145
This actually isn’t a bad bet and we don’t even have to try hard here. If the Broncos stop the Giants like we think they will, Manning will probably be playing from behind and throwing a lot. If Manning impressed early, then this mark will again be within his grasp.
The matchup and Eli’s lack of weapons hurt the upside here, but he hasn’t dipped under 220 passing yards in his worst game in 2017. Three other times he’s easily hit this Over.
Denver only allows an average of 210 yards per game, but I think Manning has to throw a lot and hits the mark. He has a big target in rookie tight end Evan Engram and given Denver’s struggles with stopping tight ends, that could be a big asset.
Will DeAndre Hopkins Score This Week?
If we’re high on Deshaun Watson (and we are) it makes sense that he’s going to achieve a lot of his success via his top weapon.
Nuk went nuts last week with three touchdowns and now has five scores on the year, so we certainly have to consider the possibility he’ll find the end-zone yet again in week six:
- Yes +130
- No -160
I wonder what Topbet.eu knows that we don’t. Cleveland has been bad against the pass and Hopkins hasn’t ever met a matchup he couldn’t beat. The big thing is he finally has a competent passer helping him out.
Given Watson’s strong form, Nuk’s propensity for scoring to this point, the matchup and the solid betting value, we’ll target this prop all day.
Will Ameer Abdullah Top 75+ Rushing Yards?
Abdullah has been tough to trust in 2017, as he’s only topped this rushing yardage Total twice in five games. He’s at least been healthy unlike past years and in week six he gets a very beatable Saints run defense.
Is that all enough to get us on board with the Lions running back topping 75 rushing yards this week?
- Yes +170
- No -220
Topbet.eu doesn’t seem to be a huge believer in Abdullah, but we are. When the Lions are in the game or in control, they like to run the football.
We saw that early in the year but last week the Lions found themselves in a 27-10 hole and had to throw for much of the fourth quarter. In a tight shootout in New Orleans, I don’t think the same thing happens to Detroit this week.
I don’t love this Total by a wide margin, but Abdullah can make people miss and he can get yardage that isn’t blocked for him. New Orleans just doesn’t have a strong overall defense, while they’re currently allowing over 100 yards on the ground per game.
I love the value and the talented Abdullah is in as good of a spot as he’ll be all year to hit our mark.
Will Drew Brees Top 300+ Yards Passing?
Could there be easier money? I know that the Saints have been a little more balanced this year, but Brees tends to light it up at home and I think he’s going to need to take it to the air in this one.
We’ve seen Brees get over 300 yards only once in 2017 (shocking, right?) and that’s not a trend I expect to hang around for much longer. The question is, are the Lions a good enough matchup to open the floodgates for him in week six?
- Yes -105
- No -125
This is a fairly safe bet at basically EVEN money, so I think we need to pounce. Vegas has this game with a Total of 51, so we should be bracing for a shootout.
Brees has also destroyed Detroit over the years, putting up 300+ yards in all six games he’s played against them in his career. Only helping matters is Detroit’s suspect pass defense, which enters the week ranking 28th against the pass.
Will Julio Jones Score a TD in Week 6?
For the sake of so many fantasy football team’s we surely hope so, right? In all seriousness, Jones has been dealing with a back injury and he’s yet to score a single touchdown on the year, but it’s going to be tough to bet on that ugly streak lasting for much longer.
Topbet.eu is giving us really playable value here, too, and Jones will be at home coming off a bye week:
- Yes +120
- No -150
Atlanta said before the season they intended on featuring Jones more in the red-zone and that simply hasn’t happened. Miami isn’t a great matchup by the numbers, but with this line, we need to roll with the elite talent.
Will Jordy Nelson Notch 7+ Receptions This Week?
Nelson sat out of the final moments last week with a hamstring issue, so he has two things working against him in week six. Not only may he not be quite 100%, but he also could be shadowed by tough Vikings cornerback, Xavier Rhodes.
That makes this prop bet for his reception total very interesting:
- Yes +120
- No -150
Nelson practiced in full this week and is expected to be fine for this game, but his matchup with Rhodes is a concern. I believe Nelson has a shot at getting a score here and a few receptions, but 7+ catches calls for a ton of targets.
Aaron Rodgers is smarter than to pick on Rhodes too much, which could help make Nelson more of a decoy in week six. Nelson has enjoyed burning Minnesota’s pass defense throughout his career, but doing so on the road hasn’t been the norm.
In eight career road games against the Vikes, Nelson has met or exceeded this 7+ catch mark just twice. Given his health and the matchup, I’m not betting on a third occurrence this week.
Will Randall Cobb Score a TD in Week 6?
If Jordy Nelson is to be less effective than usual and/or draped by an elite cover man, it stands to reason that a teammate of his should benefit.
Davante Adams is the obvious winner after scoring twice last week, but the NFL tends to spread things out. I get the feeling slot man Randall Cobb could have his number called this week and the odds certainly support that notion:
- Yes +220
- No -300
Topbet.eu is giving us killer value here and the matchups position Cobb into a scoring role. With Nelson and possibly also Adams covered, Cobb could be extra busy in the slot.
That was certainly the case to start the season, as Cobb rattled off 15 catches before getting hurt ahead of week three. He’s only scored once, but he’s obviously due and could be a product of Rodgers simply locating the open guy in this one.
Will Eli Manning Throw 2+ Interceptions in Week 6?
Let’s cap our week six NFL prop bets breakdown by circling back to Eli Manning. We don’t hate his shot at 231+ passing yards, but a date with the Broncos in Denver on SNF seems like an overall nightmare.
Not only is Denver’s pass rush going to be a problem here, but Manning is down his top three wide receivers. He should put up some yards due to desperation and game flow, but Topbet.eu has us loving his chances of tossing a few picks, too:
- Yes +350
- No -500
Manning’s help in the passing game will be non-existent and his pass protection has been spotty all year. Whether it’s rushed passes, tipped balls or simply bad throws, Manning is destined to make some major gaffes in this primetime affair.
It’s not like Manning had been invincible to turnovers, either. The 36-year old passer has five picks on the year and has thrown at least one in 4 of his 5 starts.
That being said, there are more than these 10 week six prop bets that we picked out. Be sure to hunt high and low for the props you like the most, as well as the sites that will offer the most bang for your buck.
Regardless of which props you wager on or where you bet, we wish you well in week six!