Game of Thrones Betting: Who Will Win the Battle of Winterfell?

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The eighth and final season of Game of Thrones is officially in full swing. The first 2 episodes have come and gone, yet we are still waiting for our first major death. That said, it’s safe to say we’re about to get more than enough violence in the third episode of the season.

Episode 2 ended with a shot of the White Walkers arriving at Winterfell, where Jon Snow and his army are prepared for battle. Some have been told to hide in the crypt for safety, while others are getting ready to take on the army of the dead. “The Battle of Winterfell” reportedly has the biggest battle scene in the history of film or television, so the third episode of the new season should have no shortage of action.

With so many characters and storylines to follow, betting on Game of Thrones has become something of an industry of its own. Oddsmakers are constantly updating things in order to keep up with each passing episode, so there are always new betting opportunities popping up.

There haven’t been many worthwhile Game of Thrones betting developments through the first 2 episodes of season 8, but several big questions will surely be answered this week. How should you be betting on Game of Thrones heading into “The Battle of Winterfell?”

Who will die first in episode 3?

  • Tormund Giantsbane +110
  • Jorah Mormont +110
  • Theon Greyjoy +130
  • Brienne of Tarth +150
  • The Hound +170
  • Davos Seaworth +225
  • Gendry +250
  • Samwell Tarly +300
  • Arya Stark +525
  • Jon Snow +575

Just about everyone at Winterfell awaiting the arrival of the army of the dead seems resigned to the likelihood that they may die soon. In fact, that’s basically the theme of the entire second episode. Tyrion and a host of others gather around a fire and drink in anticipation of the battle to come.

Tormund was lucky to escape the Wall alive at the end of the last season after it was demolished by the ice dragon. He’s one of the few sources of comic relief left in the show, but I feel like he may not be around much longer. Most of his fellow Wildlings have already died off and one would imagine he’ll be at the frontlines of the upcoming battle. Tormund meeting his end first at +110 makes for a decent bet, so I wouldn’t talk you out of just betting the favorite here.

Jorah is right there with Tormund at +110. He was given a brand new Valyrian sword by Sam Tarly in the last episode. While that should help him against some of the White Walkers, it’s hard to imagine him making it out of this episode alive. Jorah and Tormund at +110 apiece make for strong options.

Brienne was knighted in the second episode, which was a nice moment. However, the fact that she was just knighted may also be a sign that her time is set to come to a close. Brienne at +150 brings slightly more value than Tormund or Jorah at +110, but I also think Brienne being the first to go seems rather unlikely.

Theon Greyjoy - Game of Thrones

Theon dumbly volunteered to try and defend Bran from the Night King, and I’d imagine Theon is the last guy Bran wants taking that job. Theon is a lock to die at some point this season considering it’s a miracle that he’s still around in the first place, but I have a hard time believing Bran’s face-off with the Night King happens at the beginning of the battle. Theon at +130 to die first is still a good bet, but if he dies I do think it’ll come later in the episode.

I can’t imagine Jon Snow or Arya Stark perishing in this episode, let alone being the first to do so. While their odds are appealing, I don’t think they’re bets that have any hope of actually winning. Sam Tarly could be nearing his end, but I also think we see more of him before that happens.

The Hound at +170 isn’t crazy, but he seems destined to square off with his hated brother, the Mountain, at some point this season. I think he survives the battle, so I’ll pass on the Hound at +170 here.

The best bets are Tormund, Jorah, and Theon. I’d bet on both +110 options before taking Theon at +130. Betting on Game of Thrones deaths is generally unpredictable, but there is a reason to believe Tormund and Jorah could be among the first to go.

Will Jaime Lannister die in episode 3?

  • Yes +150
  • No -200

Jaime knighted Brienne in episode 2, and he seems to have made amends with most of the people he has wronged in the past, Bran Stark included. Jaime told Brienne that he wants to fight in the battle under her leadership, which is a stark contrast to how their relationship looked earlier in the series.

Jaime Lannister - Game of Thrones

Literally, any character currently at Winterfell is at risk of dying in the next episode, so I definitely won’t tell you that you can’t bet on Jaime to be one of them at +150. However, it seems likely that he’ll have some sort of a showdown with his sister Cersei at some point this season.

Considering Cersei is still at King’s Landing, Jaime’s next interaction with her is going to have to come later in the season. There’s not a ton of value in betting on Jaime to survive this episode at -200, but I think it’s easily the correct bet.

Will Arya Stark die in episode 3?

  • Yes +525
  • No -1000

Arya is yet another character that seems resigned to her impending death at the hands of the White Walkers. While Game of Thrones is a series with a reputation for killing off key characters shockingly early, Arya perishing in episode 3 would be a shock, even by their standards.

Betting “yes” at +525 obviously offers massive profit potential, but I can’t vouch for it. Arya has plenty left to do before the season ends, so she’s not going down in episode 3. Move right along.

Will Khal Drogo or Hodor appear in episode 3?

  • Yes +1000
  • No -2500

Khal Drogo and Hodor have both been dead for quite some time, but there are conspiracy theories floating about regarding the potential for either character to resurface as a member of the army of the dead.

Hodor was (presumably) killed trying to keep White Walkers at bay, so there’s a pretty strong chance that he was resurrected by the Night King and added to the massive army. Hodor’s body wasn’t burned after his death, which means he may now be lurching toward Winterfell with the rest of the wights.

Hodor - Game of Thrones

Hodor was a fan favorite during his time on the show, so I wouldn’t put it past the writers to give him a brief cameo here. It would also be fairly twisted for some of the Starks to see their old friend suddenly fighting against them as a zombie.

I actually think this is a realistic possibility, so punting with a small wager on “yes” at +1000 here looks awesome on paper. I’m less convinced we see Khal Drogo again, especially in episode 3. I won’t rule out the possibility that he appears at some point during the season, but it won’t be in the upcoming episode.

Give me “yes” on zombie Hodor showing up at the battle at +1000.

Will the Night King kill Bran Stark?

  • Yes +120
  • No -160

The stage is set for a meeting between Bran and the Night King. The plan for those protecting Winterfell is to try and lure the Night King to Bran, where he’ll be vulnerable, and I’d imagine this will be the culmination of episode 3.

Jon Snow and company are hoping to be able to kill the Night King, while the Night King seems to want to do the same to Bran. However, we don’t actually know that the Night King is going to be present at the Battle of Winterfell. For all we know, he could be flying zombie Viserion to King’s Landing instead.

Bran always seems to have something up his sleeve. I have a hard time believing his plan to bait the Night King into coming out into the open hinges on the ability of Theon to successfully defend him. Oddsmakers are siding with “no” here, and I think that’s the smart bet.

Bran may die at some point, but it won’t be at the hands of the Night King.

Who wins the Battle of Winterfell?

  • The Dead -240
  • The Living +160

While impending death was a theme of episode 2, Tyrion Lannister seems to be one of the few characters that think they have a chance at actually successfully defending Winterfell. It seemed like a bit of a throwaway line at the time, but I think it may wind up being a little bit of foreshadowing.

Viserion and the Night King - Game of Thrones

The army of the dead is understandably a heavy favorite considering they have as many as 100,000 fighters at their disposal. Plus a dragon doesn’t hurt.

Still, the living have fared pretty well in these battles before, and they also happen to have 2 dragons on their own side. Could the army of the dead just overrun Winterfell and bulldoze their way to King’s Landing, but I have a hard time believing this will be the end for Daenerys Targaryen, Jon Snow and the entire army.

I like the living as an underdog bet to win the Battle of Winterfell at +160. This is one of the few bets that offers real upside in terms of profit potential, so if you’re betting on Game of Thrones I think this is one of the best props to be targeting.

Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...

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