You’ll win at least one prize on 3 out of every 10 spins.
But you don’t know how many lines you can expect to win with on each spin.
Win frequency’s other deficiency is that it doesn’t take losses disguised as wins (LDWs) into account. An LDW refers to rounds were you win a payout that’s worth less than your bet size.
Here’s an example of an LDW:
You bet $1.
You win $0.30.
Triumphant sounds and exciting animations go off.
You feel like a winner.
However, you’ve actually lost $0.70.
The problem with losses disguised as wins is that they fool you into thinking you’re a winner. While you technically have won, you’ve actually lost in terms money.
The word “disguised” refers to how developers use animations and sound effects to mask losses. You might only win a penny on a dollar spin, but you’ll feel like a winner when gold coins are flying across the screen.
LDWs are a huge problem considering that they can trick you into thinking that you’re winning. The false assumption that you’re winning money may keep you playing longer and losing more as a result.
Should You Trust Win Frequency?
You can see that hit frequency isn’t a perfect figure. Its main downfall is that it doesn’t account for LDWs.
It’s also misleading in that it’s an all-encompassing figure that accounts for a win of any kind. It doesn’t, however, provide any idea on how often you can expect to win per payline.
Consider 117,649 ways to win again. As long as you pick up one payout amidst all of these ways, then the win frequency is 1 for 1.
Of course, you’re failing on 117,648 of the other ways. Therefore, it’s puzzling to think that the developer counts this as 100% win frequency for a single spin.
But you shouldn’t necessarily discount hit frequency completely. It does have some utility, especially when you want to know your chances of winning something on each spin.
A high win frequency will most likely help extend your bankroll longer than a low win rate. Slots with the highest hit frequencies typically see you win over 40% of spins.
Long story short, you shouldn’t view win rate as an indication on how many prizes you can expect per round. Instead, it’s only meant to show what percentage of spins result in one or more payouts.
Developers Could Display Payline Hit Odds
Developers don’t currently offer any stats regarding your odds of winning on each payline or way. Instead, hit frequency is a blanket figure for an entire round.
Of course, developers can’t allow you to win on 20 out of 25 lines in every game. Otherwise, each payout would be extremely tiny.
You have very little chance to win with each line on any given spin. Therefore, developers are never going to offer a payline hit percentage like they would with win frequency.
On a 1024 ways game, for example, you might only have a 0.001% chance of winning per way. This doesn’t make the game look very appealing.
However, developers could offer odds on the chances of winning with each payline or way.
Here’s an example:
A slot offers 50 paylines.
Hit frequency is 30%.
50 / 0.3 = 167
The odds of winning on each line are 1 in 167.
Would game providers ever think of adding this type of information? Probably not anytime soon. However, some gamblers would appreciate knowing their chances of winning money with each spin.
Hit frequency shows your chances of winning a payout of any kind within each round. Therefore, it’s a useful figure to some degree.
However, it doesn’t account for either LDWs or wins per line. The latter is something that could be corrected through odds on winning with each line/way.
Unfortunately, no slots developers currently display your odds of winning per payline. But it would be nice if they’d consider doing so at some point in the future.
After all, netting one tiny prize on 25 lines or more, 25% of the time, doesn’t feel like much of a win.
Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on all things casino and sports betting. Michael has been writing for GamblingSites.org since early 2016. ...
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