On Monday, former Oklahoma quarterback and the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner, Kyler Murray announced his intentions to enter the 2019 NFL Draft.
It was a surprising twist to the Murray story as the talented football player was expected to play baseball for the Oakland Athletics who drafted him 9th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. Furthermore, the A’s gave Murray a contract that included a $4.6 million dollar signing bonus.
Murray has 72 hours to change his mind or for the A’s to convince Kyler to play baseball instead. The convincing could be done by luring Murray with a guaranteed major league contract and more money. NFL Hall of Fame superstar Deion Sanders, who also played baseball during his football career, suggested that Murray choose baseball instead.
“If I was in his shoes, I’m picking up the baseball bat and I’m not looking back.”
With that said, many NFL betting sites have begun to list prop bets involving Kyler Murray’s draft results. After perusing through some of these online betting sites, I’ve come up with the following two Murray NFL prop bets that offer betting value:
The first of two NFL prop bets for Kyler Murray has to do with his draft spot. The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Upon first glance, the O/U of 28.5 seems rather high. Murray is a tremendous football talent who can make all of the throws and can run like no other QB. The knock against him is his size, but that shouldn’t stop an NFL team from drafting him.
Today’s NFL is all about speed, throwing the ball, and having athletic quarterbacks that can create plays with their legs if forced out of the pocket. Murray checks off all of those boxes.
To determine where Murray might go, we need to examine the other quarterbacks who could be drafted in the 1st round. Other than Murray, there are only 3 QBs with the rumored potential to go inside the 1st round. Keep in mind, these projections are before the NFL Combine next month and the private workouts.
The former Buckeyes QB finished 3rd in the Heisman Trophy race and dominated the FBS in 2018 with 4,831 passing yards, 50 touchdowns and just 8 INTs. Haskins has been considered the top QB for this draft, but isn’t a slam dunk now that Murray is in the Draft.
He has a big arm, prototypical size, and is a solid pocket passer. His cons are that he needs to improve his footwork, field vision and his consistency with decision making.
The former Missouri QB threw for 3,498 yards, 28 TDs, 8 INTs, and ran for 6 TDs in 2018. Scouts love Lock’s arm strength, his ability to throw the ball downfield, and his touch on the ball. There are some concerns with his accuracy, consistency and ability to command an NFL huddle.
The former Duke QB has what many NFL scouts and teams are looking for: size and strength. He has been lauded for his skill-set and arm strength despite only throwing for 2,674 yards and 22 TDs at Duke in 2018. He might be the best deep ball passer in the draft and could see his stock rise the most out of all the QBs throughout the pre-Draft process.
One of the biggest concerns for Jones is that some believe he needs to shorten his delivery in order to get the ball out faster, which is crucial in the NFL.
When looking at these three QBs, I believe Murray is better than all three of them. However, he does not have the size and strength as they do. But, he can make all of the throws in the pocket and is much better than these QBs out of the pocket.
I believe this is an easy Under bet. Murray is a top-10 talent and will most likely be drafted within the Top 10. The only question is whether or not he can edge out Dwayne Haskins as the top QB taken. Right now, most NFL Draft gurus have Haskins still taken as the top QB in the 2019 NFL Draft and Murray going second.
The second NFL prop bet for Kyler Murray has to do with which team will draft him.
BetOnline considers the following teams as the odds on favorites to draft Kyler Murray:
The Oakland Raiders have three draft picks in the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft. So, it’s easy to see why they would be the odds on favorite to land Murray. However, there’s only two likely scenarios that could bring Murray to the Raiders. The first scenario is taking Murray with the #4 pick and the second scenario is packaging their #24 and #27 picks to move up into the top 10 to get Kyler.
With Derek Carr locked in as the Raiders franchise QB, and someone who has built a relationship with head coach Jon Gruden, I do not see either scenario happen. The Raiders have too many holes to fill and will take one of the top defensive linemen with their first pick instead. From there, Oakland will fill in other holes like receiver or offensive line with their additional first round picks.
Avoid the Raiders in this bet, as I don’t see Murray ending up with the Silver and Black.
The Jacksonville Jaguars draft 7th overall and are a serious contender to land Murray. With poor play from Blake Bortles and any other QB that they lined up under center, the Jaguars are desperate for a new starting quarterback.
However, this is a team that’s built to win now with an elite defense and a power running game. They would be better suited signing or trading for veteran quarterbacks like Nick Foles or Joe Flacco. These two options give the Jaguars a better chance to win right now than Murray would.
The dilemma for the Jaguars would be to get an exciting young prospect who could be the franchise Qb for the next 10 years or get a veteran QB to help them win in the next 1-3 years.
Unlike the Jaguars, the Giants are not ready to win now. There’s too many holes on both sides of the ball to address. However, that doesn’t preclude them from getting a QB in the draft. The Eli Manning era is over in New York, and it will become very clear when the Giants move on from Eli this offseason either by cut, trade or drafting a QB to take his spot.
With that said, the Giants are pegged to draft Dwayne Haskins out of Ohio State. However, this could change if Murray impresses the Giants more than Haskins during the pre-draft process.
The following teams offer betting value based on their need for a QB and the betting odds:
Yes, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Josh Rosen in the 2018 NFL Draft, but there have been rumors and reports that the Cardinals could be looking to trade Rosen and take Murray in the draft. With the Cardinals hiring Kliff Kingsbury as their new head coach, there are some who believe that Murray would be a better fit for Kingsbury’s offensive scheme than Rosen.
The big concern with this thinking is that the Cardinals draft #1 overall in 2019, and they’re pegged to take Nick Bosa from Ohio State. Bosa, a defensive end, has been widely considered all season long to be the top pick in the draft. Will the Cardinals move on from Rosen to Murray or will they draft Bosa as their defensive cornerstone? That’s the question that won’t be answered until we get closer to the Draft.
Washington barely missed out on making the playoffs this year. However, they need a lot of help on offense, which includes o-line, QB, and wide receivers to complement their top tier defense. Some would argue that the wide receiver group is the more pressing of positions to fill. But, I would argue that not having a franchise QB is a bigger issue.
There’s no guarantee that Alex Smith will be able to return this year or even play football again. His broken leg led to an infection and further complications, which has put his NFL career in jeopardy. McCoy and Johnson are admirable backups, but they’re not starting QBs for an entire season.
Murray could inject a lot of excitement in the Washington franchise. Or the franchise can decide to go for a veteran QB like Foles, Flacco, Bradford or Bortles.
Pittsburgh at +1400 is a possible longshot to draft Kyler Murray. The thinking behind this is that Big Ben isn’t going to be around forever. Although they could use help in their secondary, a franchise QB to take over the reins from Big Ben could be too good to pass up on.
If Murray happens to fall all the way to the Steelers with the 20th pick, I think it would be foolish for the team to pass up on him.
Big Ben probably has 1-2 years left at a high level. He could be the perfect bridge for Murray as Kyler can sit and learn behind a HOF quarterback. I’m not sold on any of the current backups behind Big Ben becoming the franchise QB. In fact, I think Murray has a higher ceiling than any of Pittsburgh’s backups including Rudolph.
The only concern is how the Antonio Brown saga will play out and affect the team’s salary cap. If Pittsburgh has to eat 20+ million dollars in dead cap then they may need to fill other holes with the #20 pick instead of taking Murray. That’s why it’s a longshot folks.
Unless Murray has a catastrophic combine and pro workout day, he’s destined to be taken in the top 10 of the 2019 NFL Draft. From there, Murray will be in a battle with Dwayne Haskins for the #1 quarterback selected.
Right now, Haskins has the edge and this is largely due to his pocket passing success, his play at a top college football program, and his physical skill set. However, don’t let the size and strength fool you.
Last year, many so-called Draft gurus and fans were declaring that the Cleveland Browns would take USC quarterback Sam Darnold because of his physical skill set.
By time the 2018 NFL Draft came, the Browns decided to go with the smaller QB in Baker Mayfield. Who, by the way, played in the same offensive system in college as Murray did and he also won the Heisman Trophy just like Murray.
With that said, I believe that the Jaguars are the best fit right now for Murray. Ideally, I would say the Jaguars should get Flacco to be a bridge QB for 1-2 years and draft Murray with the #7 pick. But, that’s up to Jacksonville on what type of veteran presence they want in the QB meeting room.
I believe the Giants will go with Haskins as he appears to be a better fit with their team and town than Murray does. Haskins can handle the bad weather and would be the pocket passer that the Giants need. Although Murray could have success there, the Giants need a QB that can get the ball to their playmakers like OBJ and Barkley. They don’t need a QB running all over the field.
The Jaguars need all of the playmakers they can get right now. With such poor QB play over the last few years, this team seems destined to give that position an entire makeover. And, there’s no other QB in the draft that is more of an opposite of Blake Bortles than Murray. I can see Jacksonville adopting a similar approach as to what the Baltimore Ravens did with rookie QB Jackson in 2018.
Jacksonville can lean on a power running game and their elite defense throughout the season, while Murray electrifies on offense during the ups and frustrates during the downs.
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