Will Tom Brady Regress in 2017?

By in Sports & Betting on

The New England Patriots are in a funny situation following the 2017 NFL season. They have one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks of all-time in five-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, but could be thinking about the bigger picture under center due to the presence of viable franchise passer, Jimmy Garoppolo.

Brady’s four-game ban to start the 2016 regular season forced the Pats to think about what life without Brady would be like. New England went 3-1 while their top passer served his suspension and may have uncovered a gem in Garoppolo in the process.

It remains to be determined just how hard of a decision this ends up being for New England, however. Brady, who will be 40 once the 2017 season rolls around, could easily start showing signs of steep decline in his 18th NFL season. If he does, the Patriots could have plenty of reason to turn away from their star quarterback and roll with their young gun.

Then again, Brady has said for years that he loves playing pro football and will play as long as he “doesn’t suck”. That could lead to 6-7 more years of Brady, if all goes well. If that indeed keeps going in 2017 and Brady has the Pats (who are currently favored to win Super Bowl 52) in striking distance of repeating as NFL champions, then it will be awfully hard for New England to replace him with a guy who has two pro starts under his belt.

Adding to the allure of a crucial season for Brady is the NFL betting opportunities that accompany him next season. Thanks to MyBookie.ag, we can freely bet on just how dominant Brady will be in 2017. It’s fair to suggest he could be even better than he was a year ago, too, as he’s riding high after winning another title, will have Rob Gronkowski back and just saw the Pats swing a trade for deep threat, Brandin Cooks.

Does that mean Brady is headed for his best year yet? Should we expect that sharp regression to finally settle in, or can we brace for something in between? Let’s slowly answer that by taking a look at the numerous Tom Brady prop bets over at My Bookie:

How Many Games Will Brady Start?

This is a fun Tom Brady bet, which is undoubtedly fueled by the star quarterback’s four-game ban of a year ago. My Bookie gives you five options and plenty of betting upside:

  • 16 games (-200)
  • 15 games (+200)
  • 14 games (+400)
  • 13 games (+600)
  • 12 games or fewer (+800)

The value obviously lies with the last bet due to the sheer upside, but barring some crazy injury or Brady struggling so badly he gets benched, it’s not the likeliest option. Brady is going to be 40 years old and both of those avenues grow wider as time goes on, but this is not a guy who relies on elite physical prowess and knows how to take care of himself, on and off the field.

We’ve seen that through Brady’s history in the NFL, as this seasoned pro has played in all 16 regular season games 13 times. In fact, he failed to do so just four different times in his entire career. The first time Brady wasn’t a starter during his rookie season, the second time he became the starter in week two and played all 15 possible games, the third time he tore his ACL and missed 15 games and last year he missed four games due to a suspension.

Needless to say, logic points to Brady suiting up for all 16 games this year. If we wanted to take a gamble on Brady getting a mild injury or maybe being held out on week due to a concussion, we could try a 15-game bet (+200). I also don’t hate trying for the 12 games or less bet, just because you never know when regression or an injury can strike. The smart money is still on Brady completing a full season, however.

Pick: 16 games (-200)

Tom Brady – TD Passes

My Bookie gives us a fun bet with Brady’s proposed touchdown numbers for the new season. Still at the top of his game in 2016, Brady fired in 28 touchdown passes in just 12 starts. The betting options consist six TD tiers:

  • 36+ TDs (+250)
  • 34-35 TDs (+150)
  • 30-33 TDs (EVEN)
  • 29-32 TDs (+200)
  • 25-28 TDs (+400)
  • 24 TDs or fewer (+800)

The real value again lies with the unlikely bet, but if you think Brady could get hurt or benched in his age-40 season, it’s not a bad idea to double-down here with the 12 games or fewer bet. You could certainly strike it big in the event Brady doesn’t finish a full season.

Outside of that, though, the best plays here are 36 touchdowns or 34-35 touchdowns. Brady would have hit around that number had he played all 16 games last year and he’s produced 34+ touchdowns five different times in his career. He’s got a red-zone monster in star tight end Rob Gronkowski, a slot demon in Julian Edelman and a downfield burner in Brandin Cooks.

This seriously could be Brady’s best receiving corps he’s ever had, from top to bottom. If we’re to believe that, it makes sense to aim high and target the 36 scores.

Pick: 36+ TDs (+250)

Tom Brady – Interceptions

We get an interesting Tom Brady prop bet when you look at the number of picks he could throw. It’s going to be tough to figure this one out, seeing as he tossed just two in 12 games in 2016. Brady really isn’t a big turnover guy in general, though, as we’ve seen him toss more than 10 interceptions in a full year just one time in the last five years. Here are your Tom Brady betting options in terms of interceptions thrown:

  • 10+ (+400)
  • 7-9 (EVEN)
  • 4-6 (+200)
  • 0-5 (+500)

It’s not impossible for Brady to regress a bit or have an off year, so we can’t say the 10+ interception bet is completely off the table. Brady has never thrown more than 14 picks in a single season, however, and he’s tossed double-digit interceptions just three times since 2007.

Brady takes very good care of the football, operates out of an elite system and has very good weapons and coaching around him. It’d take a lot of uncharacteristic recklessness for Brady to hit that 10+ number. I don’t think the 0-5 mark is that realistic, though. Last year was a shortened season, so with four more games Brady could have easily produced more picks.

Instead, the 7-9 range seems like a good bet. We’re not getting the value we prefer here, but Brady has tossed 7, 9, 11 and 8 picks in the four seasons prior to last year. That’s simply the appropriate range we’re dealing with.

Pick: 7-9 (EVEN)

Tom Brady – Passing Yards

The last Tom Brady prop bet to consider at My Bookie is his 2017 passing yardage total for the regular season. We shouldn’t lean too hard on the yardage numbers we saw out of Brady last year, but we do know he’s safely topped 3,500 passing yards in 14 different seasons. Here’s our betting options:

  • 5,200+ yards (+600)
  • 4,900-5,199 (+400)
  • 4,700-4,899 (+300)
  • 4,500-4,699 (+200)
  • 4,300-4,499 (+300)
  • 4,100-4,299 (+400)
  • 3,900-4,099 (+600)
  • 3,899 or less (+900)

Again, if you just want to cash in on this being a really bad year for Brady, we can pile up bets across the board and cap it with the last bet here and take some really sweet +900 odds. Brady is going to be 40 years old and could easily get hurt or benched, so it’s not the craziest idea.

While not crazy, it probably isn’t overly realistic. Brady looked to still be very much on top of his game last year and has said he wants to play for quite some time yet, so it would make sense for him to keep his strong play going through 2017.

If we’re sticking with that, we should look to his usual yearly production, which has had him top 4,100 passing yards in each of the last five seasons where he played 16 games. We should be eyeing that again for Brady, but due to his elite supporting cast, system and past results, we can actually aim pretty high here.

Betting on Tom Brady to get 5,200+ yards feels like too much of a reach, though. Brady has topped 5,000+ yards in general just once in his career and while he can threaten that plateau, New England tends to have a little more balanced in their offense. Brady has topped 4,500+ passing yards several times, however, so I like any bets ranging from 4,100 to 4,900. In that grouping, however, the cleanest bet seems to be the 4,300-4,499 range.

That bet seems fairly reliable given Brady’s talent, history, system and supporting cast. It’s certainly not a low total, while it also still provides solid value.

Pick: 4,300-4,499 (+300)

You can bet on Tom Brady any way you feel like, but for us, the 2017 NFL season isn’t going to end the mark of an era. Brady could sustain a freak injury or hit a wall, but he’s really shown no signs of decline. This isn’t a guy who relies on speed or overall athleticism, either. He knows how to stay healthy, he gets rid of the ball quickly and accurately and he simply flat out produces.

Odds are Brady enjoys another healthy and productive campaign in 2017 and the Pats (Super Bowl 52 favorites) benefit from it to a certain degree. We’d use that narrative to help you bet and hopefully our insight here helps you with these specific bets. Regardless of what you decide, we wish you luck with these Tom Brady NFL specials and any other bets you make.

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