Will Tom Brady Surpass His Age in TD Passes for 2021?

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Is there anything that Tom Brady can’t do on a football field?

Take a few moments to actually think about that question. I’m willing to bet that you will come to the same conclusion that most fans, pundits and bettors have come to – no, there’s nothing he can’t do on the gridiron.

With that in mind, we shift our focus to this interesting NFL prop bet courtesy of BetOnline that asks if Brady can throw more touchdowns this year than his age.

The 2021 Season, Which Is Only Five Weeks Old, Has Already Been Filled With Tom Brady Prop Bets

From breaking the all-time passing yardage record to individual game prop bets, NFL betting sites have gone all-in on this Brady-mania! Let’s huddle up to examine this latest Tom Brady prop bet and see where we should lay our money.

Tom Brady Betting Odds

  • Tom Brady TD Passes (-350)
  • Tom Brady’s Age (+225)

Tom Brady entered the 2021 NFL season at the age of 44 years old. His birthday is on August 3rd, and he’s officially the oldest active player in the league. As of this writing, there are no other active players in the NFL over the age of 40.

During the offseason, Adam Vinatieri officially retired from the NFL. He was 46 years old at the time of his last official NFL game in 2019.

Vinatieri was a long-time teammate of Tom Brady with New England, is the all-time leading scorer in NFL history, and was the last active player to have played in the 1990s.

Also retiring this offseason was Drew Brees. The 42 year old quarterback retired as the all-time leader in passing yards. However, Brady just broke that record in Week 4 at New England.

Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Fitzpatrick are both less than a year away from turning 40 years old. However, it’s unlikely that either will play in 2022.

Former long snappers L.P. Ladouceur and Don Muhlbach were put out to pasture this year after turning 40 years old. Each man played at least 16 seasons in the league.

The only active player that will turn 40 this season, and play, is Andrew Whitworth who is the starting left tackle for the Los Angeles Rams.

Who Is the Oldest Player in NFL History?

I’m sure some of you may be wondering who holds the distinction as the oldest player in NFL history. Well, that was no other than George Blanda who retired in 1975 at the age of 48.

Blanda played 26 seasons in the NFL as a kicker and a quarterback. His playing career stretched four decades, which makes him one of two players to have ever accomplished this feat.

Blanda played for the Bears, Colts, Oilers and Raiders. He was enshrined into the Hall of Fame in 1981 and closed his speech with the following comments:

“I am very fortunate that I got to play 26 years of professional football, more than any player that has ever played.  And the thrill was competing week after week, year after year.  I really feel proud and honored that the good Lord gave me the power and the strength, the upbringing to continue on with the game I sincerely loved and enjoyed playing. Thank you very much.”

The second oldest player ever was kicker Morten Anderson who retired at the age of 47.

If anyone can surpass Anderson and Blanda, it’s Tom Brady. The GOAT actually said the following about playing until the age of 50:

“I think I can, I think it is a yes. Can Tom Brady play ’til 50? Like, 50 years old? Fifty. I don’t find it so difficult. Plus, in Florida, it’s kind of a retiree state.”

Brady’s Current Stats and Projections for 2021

After five games played, Tom Brady has thrown 15 TDs. What’s even more impressive about that number is the fact that he didn’t even throw one TD in the Week 4 matchup against the Patriots. Furthermore, Brady has thrown 14 TDs in just three games.

Here’s a look at Brady’s TD totals for each week so far:

  • Week 1: 4 TDs vs Dallas Cowboys
  • Week 2: 5 TDs vs Atlanta Falcons
  • Week 3: 1 TD vs Los Angeles Rams
  • Week 4: 0 TDs vs New England Patriots
  • Week 5: 5 TDs vs Miami Dolphins

Currently, Tom Brady is averaging 3 TDs per game which would put him on pace to throw 51 touchdown passes in 2021.

Last year, in his first season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Brady threw for 40 TD passes. The team is much farther along in 2021 after a year together and a full offseason compared to the 2020 season.

But, does that mean Brady can throw for 45 or more TDs this year?

How You Should Wager on This Brady Prop Bet

The magic number is 44, which is Brady’s current age. So, we’re betting on whether or not The GOAT can throw for 45 touchdowns in 2021.

As mentioned, Brady is averaging three TDs per game this year. A pace that would see “TB 12” chuck 51 TD passes in 2021, which would be the most of his career.

In 2007, Brady threw 50 TD passes. However, he hasn’t come close to that mark since then. His next highest TD total was 40, which came last year with the Bucs. Those are the only two seasons that Brady has ever thrown for 40 or more touchdowns.

The Buccaneers are a pass first team with a decent running game. Yet, they often find Brady leading the charge through the air as he’s averaging 353.4 passing yards per game this season and is on pace to throw for over 6,000 yards.

For this Brady prop bet, I would wait two more games to see how many TDs he throws. I think the “Yes” option of The GOAT throwing more TDs than his age is overvalued right now.

At -350 odds, that’s a bit high considering his lack of 40+ TDs in a season. Furthermore, another game where he only throws one TD or less will certainly drop those odds some. That would be the time to get in on the action.

In no way am I saying that Brady can’t do this. If you recall at the beginning of the article, I believe that Brady can do just about anything on the football field. However, I don’t like the odds for the TD passes option.

If you insist on wagering right now then take the Age option at +225, but make it a small wager. Wait on this prop bet until Brady has a low TD game. The odds are overvalued right now.

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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