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Will Donald Trump Win Re-Election in 2020?

The 2020 presidential election is only about a year and a half away. It feels like only yesterday that we were watching people laugh at the notion of Donald Trump actually getting elected president, but here we are. Trump has been in the Oval Office for a little over 2 years, and there is no shortage of Democrats set to oppose him in the next election cycle.

Trump has always seemed more interested in campaigning than doing the day-to-day work that comes with being president, so you can be sure POTUS is excited to be getting back out on the trail in the coming months. The man whose initial campaign seemed to have no chance has rather quickly transformed the entire Republican party in the 4 years since he announced his candidacy.

The field seems to grow on a daily basis, but as of this writing 13 Democratic candidates have already announced their plans to run for Trump’s seat in the White House. That does not include independent Howard Schultz, who has not officially announced that he is planning to run. It also doesn’t include former vice president Joe Biden, who many believe would be the frontrunner whenever he does enter the fray.

Betting on politics in this day and age is a tricky endeavor considering the unpredictability of everything. Trump’s administration has been anything but predictable to this point, but the general chaos surrounding everything has provided ample wagering opportunities. You can bet real money on Trump’s various scandals, and, of course, you can bet on who will emerge victorious in the upcoming election.

Will Trump successfully win a second term? Or will we get a new president in ‘20? The updated betting odds, via BetOnline, are below:

  • Donald Trump +150
  • Joe Biden +600
  • Beto O’Rourke +700
  • Bernie Sanders +800
  • Kamala Harris +800
  • Andrew Yang +2800
  • Amy Klobuchar +3300
  • Cory Booker +3300
  • Elizabeth Warren +3300
  • Pete Buttigieg +3300
  • Kirsten Gillibrand +4000
  • Mike Pence +5000
  • Tulsi Gabbard +5000
  • Howard Schultz +6600
  • Jay Inslee +6600
  • John Hickenlooper +6600
  • Julian Castro +6600

Trump the Clear Favorite

Trump was a massive underdog in 2016, but he’ll likely enter the 2020 election as the pretty clear betting favorite. Some in his own party have reportedly toyed with the idea of trying to run for the Republican nomination against the incumbent president, but the most likely outcome here is Trump once again running in the next election atop the ticket.

That alone gives him a massive edge over every other candidate in the field. We are so early in the process that betting on any of Trump’s potential opponents comes with massive risk. Someone like Biden or O’Rourke may eventually secure the Democratic nomination, but we have no idea what’s going to happen between now and the Democratic Convention in the summer of 2020.

Just think back to 2016, when Trump was the underdog to other Republican candidates, notably Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz. Many at the time believed that Bush was the clear frontrunner, thanks in large part to his family’s lengthy history in the Oval Office. Bush had been seen as the “next in line” for quite some time, and he was popular enough within his own party.

We know what happened, of course. Trump upended the entire field of contenders and breezed his way to the nomination and eventually eked out a win in the general election. Unless some sort of scandal causes his removal from office between now and then, Trump seems very likely to be on the ballot in the fall of 2020.

So, he’s the safest betting option of the lot here at +150. Even if his chances at re-election look dicey at this point, Trump is the one candidate we can almost bank on being one of the top-2 contenders once the dust settles. That fact alone makes him a pretty decent bet at +150. There is money to be made in those odds.

No More Celebrities

Around a year ago at this time, there was all sorts of buzz about the potential for a celebrity to rise up and earn the Democratic nomination for president. Trump having won the previous election due in large part to his big name made some feel as though the Democrats need to fight fire with fire if they want to reclaim the White House next time around.

As a result, we heard names like Oprah Winfrey, Mark Cuban and Mark Zuckerberg bandied about regarding their odds to unseat Trump. Oprah in particular made headlines with an impassioned speech during the 2017 Golden Globes, and her presidential odds for 2020 skyrocketed as a result.

However, things have cooled considerably on that front since. Oprah is still listed at +6600 at BetOnline to win the 2020 election, but at this point she doesn’t even seem to be considering the idea of making a run. Ditto for Cuban (+12000), Zuckerberg (+15000) and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (+20000).

One of these celebrities may decide to make a bid in the future, but 2020 doesn’t seem to be the year we’ll get a famous person trying to take down Trump. So, obviously, we can pass on these people as betting options, at least until one of them decides to jump in.

Long Shot Democrats

The Democratic field is a deep one, with a number of sitting Senators, former governors and congresspeople having jumped into the race. Obviously, some of them have better chances than others. Even though it’s early, some of those that have entered the fray seem like they can already be written off as viable candidates.

At this point, it’s almost unfathomable to think that Tulsi Gabbard, John Hickenlooper or Jay Inslee have much of a chance at all. Hickenlooper and Inslee are a pair of former governors, and they seem a bit redundant from a policy perspective. Gabbard hasn’t really campaigned in the states with early primaries (notably Iowa, South Carolina or New Hampshire), which has made some question whether she even seriously wants to win the nomination.

So, Gabbard (+5000), Inslee (+6600) and Hickenlooper (+6600) look like pretty easy bets to ignore here.

Kirsten Gillibrand officially announced her candidacy last week after initially launching an exploratory committee, Gillibrand is one of 4 female Senators to have declared their candidacy to this point, and she seems like a pretty clear underdog compared to the other 3 (Warren, Harris, Klobuchar).

Gillibrand could improve her odds over the next few months, but she makes for a risky bet here to win the presidency at +4000. Julian Castro faces a similar climb, and it’s tough to see how he will be able to separate himself from the field. Castro is another bet to pass at +6600.

Rising Stars

A couple of little-known candidates have started to see their odds improve. While Sanders, Biden, Harris and O’Rourke may still be the early frontrunners on the Democratic side, Pete Buttigieg (+3300) and Andrew Yang (+1800) have started to generate a little buzz.

Buttigieg is the 37-year-old openly gay mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Yang is a 44-year-old entrepreneur from New York that officially filed for his presidential candidacy way back in November of 2017. It’s early, but Buttigieg seems to be a more viable presidential contender than Yang at this point. However, both are still betting long shots, without question.

Yang is building his campaign on the idea of basic universal income, while Buttigieg has a number of policy ideas that line up with Elizabeth Warren. Both may eventually generate enough small money donations to get onto debate stages, but either winning the nomination at this point looks fairly unlikely.

These are a couple of names to watch in the years ahead, but for now it’s tough to imagine either of them giving Trump a serious run. Buttigieg at +3300 is admittedly appealing if you’re talking about a full-on punt bet, but I’ll likely take a wait-and-see approach with both. I won’t fully write-off either of them yet, but they’re fringe options from a betting angle.

The Frontrunners

If Trump does not win re-election in 2020, it seems reasonable to suggest that Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke or Elizabeth Warren will likely be the one to defeat him.

Obviously, there’s quite a difference in all of these Democratic frontrunners. Sanders came out of nowhere to give Hillary Clinton a serious run for her money in 2016, and some believe that the longtime Vermont Senator would’ve been a bigger threat to Trump in the general election.

Sanders is back, and he still has the massive base of followers that he initially galvanized 3 years ago. Warren is similar to Sanders in terms of her progressive ideas, and no candidate to this point has offered more policy ideas than the Senator from Massachusetts. Warren is another candidate that gained plenty of steam in 2016 before deciding against a run.

O’Rourke, who made national headlines for his run against Ted Cruz last fall for a Senate spot out of Texas, announced his decision to run for the Oval Office in mid-March. O’Rourke reportedly raised in excess of $6 million within the first 24 hours of his announcement, making him one of the more popular early candidates. However, questions remain regarding what policy ideas he has.

O’Rourke is a real wild card here. He could capture the spirit of voters across the U.S. as he did during his Senate campaign in Texas. If he does, he will jump to the top of the list for the Democrats. Or, he could fizzle out completely, which wouldn’t be a shocking outcome, either.

Some believe Biden would have won had he run for the White House last time around, but the former vice president seems ready to give it a go this time around. Biden is no stranger to presidential campaigns, as this will be his fourth run for the White House if he chooses to enter the race. He has a more middle-of-the-road record than candidates like Sanders or Warren, which may give him extra appeal to more moderate voters.

Harris, the only African-American woman in the field thus far, is a strong contender, as well. The Senator from California is an advocate for progressive policies such as healthcare for all, a ban on assault weapons and action to combat climate change. She was among the first candidates to throw her hat into the ring back in January.

Conclusion

As it stands, I think the betting odds are accurate. Trump should be the clear frontrunner, while Biden will head the field if he eventually enters the race. Betting on Biden at +600 is a strong option here.

If Trump is really as unpopular with the general electorate as present-day polls indicate, whichever Democrat eventually earns the nomination will likely shoot to the top of the list when it comes to betting odds. So, getting in on some of these candidates while the odds are still super profitable is a high-risk, high-reward type of strategy.

Biden is the best bet at +600, while Sanders (+800) and especially Warren (+3300) look like tremendous values. I’m not sure why Warren is priced among some of the more long shot candidates, but that +3300 is a number I would be taking advantage of. She is a candidate that may well gain steam as the campaign season progresses.

If you want a safe bet, just take Trump at +150. It’s tough to get a read on the Democratic field with so many names in the race, but we will get some clarity as some decide to drop out within the next year or so.

Biden and O’Rourke are likely the safest bets when it comes to the Democratic side. I’d lean slightly toward Biden (+600) from a betting perspective, but Beto’s +700 odds are perfectly fine if you want a punt bet, as well. Harris at +800 is a safer bet than Bernie at the same price, simply because at this point it’s tough to tell if Sanders’ campaign is one that can really win the party’s nomination.

My favorite betting values when it comes to the field for the 2020 presidential election are as follows. A lot can change over the course of the next several months, but as it stands these are the safer betting options on the board:

  • Donald Trump +150
  • Joe Biden +600
  • Kamala Harris +800
  • Beto O’Rourke +700
  • Elizabeth Warren +3300
  • Bernie Sanders +800
Taylor Smith :