Joe Biden is only in the ninth month of his first term as president, yet it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the next election. We still have over three years until Election Day, but there is already no shortage of buzz about who may or may not attempt to unseat Biden in 2024.
Of course, Donald Trump is the name that dominates headlines on the Republican side. The 45th president has still not admitted that he lost the 2020 election, fair and square. If anything, it appears as though keeping the lie going is helping him gain momentum for another potential campaign a few years down the road. We’ll see what happens on that front.
There Is Also the Matter of Who May Run For the White House on the Democratic Side
Biden beat Trump fairly easily last November, but there are plenty of questions about whether he’ll even seek a second term. Most of the question marks surround Biden’s advanced age. He will turn 82 shortly after Election Day 2024.
While Biden’s first term got off to a relatively smooth start, things have gotten a bit rocky for him in recent weeks. The question regarding whether Biden will run is quite relevant considering presidential campaigns are starting earlier and earlier. We will start to see candidates throwing their hats into the proverbial ring as early as next year.
So, Biden and the Democrats have some decisions to make. Biden himself hasn’t committed to running for a second term. The last sitting president to decide against seeking re-election was Lyndon Johnson in 1968. While most presidents in recent history have tried to win re-election, most presidents aren’t Biden’s age, either. Biden will become the first POTUS to turn 80 in the White House in November of 2022.
Odds Favor Biden Nomination in 2024
BetOnline is keeping tabs on the prospective field of candidates in advance of the next presidential election. As of now, Biden is a +130 favorite to win his party’s nomination for the second time in a row. We don’t often see an incumbent with plus-money odds to do so, however, which reflects the uncertainty surrounding whether the 46th president will even vie for another term.
The updated odds to win the Democratic nomination in the next election cycle are listed below:
Joe Biden (+130)
Kamala Harris (+160)
Pete Buttigieg (+500)
Elizabeth Warren (+1250)
Amy Klobuchar (+2000)
Michelle Obama (+3300)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+3300)
Gretchen Whitmer (+3300)
Bernie Sanders (+4000)
Beto O’Rourke (+4000)
Cory Booker (+4000)
Sherrod Brown (+5000)
Hillary Clinton (+5000)
Stacey Abrams (+6600)
Michael Bloomberg (+6600)
Andrew Yang (+10000)
Andrew Cuomo (+30000)
If this group of candidates looks familiar, it’s because it should. The vast majority of those people ran for the Democratic nomination in the last election cycle. Bernie Sanders emerged as the biggest threat to Biden during the campaign, but his campaign fell behind once most of the other candidates threw their support behind Biden’s candidacy. Sanders, who is already 80, faces age-related question marks of his own when it comes to running again in a few years.
Pete Buttigieg, who became a household name when he ran for president, is listed at +500 to win the nomination in ‘24. Buttigieg is currently serving as Biden’s Secretary of Transportation, and many within the party believe he has a bright future. Whether that means he’ll be popular enough to win the nomination in just a couple of years remains to be seen.
Biden’s Lagging Approval
Age is likely the biggest factor when it comes to Biden’s potential candidacy in 2024. While he is the person that will ultimately have to make the decision, it’s also worth wondering whether the Democratic Party at large would be eager for him to run again in the future.
Biden’s 2020 campaign got off to a lackluster start before he roared back to win the nomination in upset fashion. In the end, Democratic voters viewed the moderate Biden as the most electable person in the field, and their best bet for winning a general election against Trump. That proved correct, as Biden would go on to whip Trump by more than seven million votes last November.
Biden’s approval rating got off to a strong start after he took office in January, but he’s tanked in that regard in recent weeks. The decision to fully withdraw troops from Afghanistan was the right one, but Biden is taking the heat for the questionable way in which the withdrawal was staged.
That issue has plagued his approval rating considerably. Biden began his term with 57 percent approval, per Gallup. As of now, his approval has nosedived all the way to just 43 percent, while his disapproval has skyrocketed to 53 percent. His disapproval rating passed his approval for the first time in August, and that downward trend has continued into September.
Of course, Biden still has plenty of time to turn it around. His approval rating is likely to start coming back up as the Afghanistan situation begins to fade from the news. If Biden can start to enact much of the bold agenda he pledged during his campaign, his approval should start to trend back in the right direction.
However, this is a situation worth watching. Biden is already a more popular president than Trump ever was, but he is also being held to a higher standard. If Biden’s disapproval rating continues to outperform his approval rating, the Democrats may not even want him to seek re-election in ‘24.
Kamala Harris launched her campaign as one of the early frontrunners before her campaign fizzled in a hurry. However, she may well wind up emerging as the most likely candidate to top her party’s presidential ticket in a few years. Harris latching on as Biden’s vice president likely resurrected her chances of making her way to the White House one day. She’s the first woman to serve as VP, and it’s fair to assume she still has higher political aspirations.
However, a recent poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times suggests Harris’ popularity is still lacking. The poll said 51 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of the former Senator from California, with 42 percent holding a favorable opinion.
The administration hasn’t really done her any favors. Harris was almost instantly tasked with the job of trying to deal with the influx of immigrants attempting to cross the United States’ southern border. We know Republicans will be more than happy to make her the face of that crisis. Back in June, Harris saw her approval rating begin to decline.
As we end this pandemic, we must get ready for the next. I am proud to announce our Administration is prepared to contribute $250 million to help jumpstart a new fund at the World Bank that will be dedicated to global pandemic preparedness. pic.twitter.com/uu4c5qSoCX
Harris is only 56, which would make her one of the youngest names in the prospective field. It’s hard to imagine she won’t run for president again someday. If Biden decides against running for re-election, it stands to reason that the Democrats would instead rally behind Harris, who presumably sees the presidency as the logical next step in her career.
Harris’ viability as a presidential candidate likely hinges completely on just how successful the Biden administration will be in its first term. If Biden is able to flip the script on his struggling approval rating before 2024, Harris will be able to run on a series of pretty popular platforms.
If the Biden administration continues its downward trend, however, Harris may struggle to separate herself from its shortcomings. That could prove fatal to her campaign.
Big Names Looming
For years, there has been all sorts of talk about when Michelle Obama or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may run for president. Obama is still one of the most popular Democrats in the country, while AOC has garnered a loyal following of her own since her meteoric rise to Congress in the last half-decade. If either were to ever decide to run, they would come with a built-in base of support. That would make either of them very difficult to beat in a primary.
Michelle Obama has repeatedly scoffed at the idea of running for president, but you never know. For what it’s worth, Barack Obama said in the past that Michelle “does not like politics” and he went as far as guaranteeing that she would not decide to run for president. However, he did say that he would support her “regardless of what her next goal is.”
Michelle certainly isn’t alone when it comes to her disdain for politics. That said, it is noteworthy considering it seems to put a knife into the idea that she could run for the most important political post on the planet one day. Unless she has a change of heart between now and then – which is possible – it’s hard to have too much faith in her current +3300 odds to win the Democratic nomination in 2024.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez just told me she is a NO on $1.2T infrastructure package on Sept. 27 if the House and Senate have not approved the larger, Democratic-only economic package by then. She called moderates demanding vote by Sept. 27 a “small destructive group of members”
Ocasio-Cortez is a much more compelling bet at the same odds. Ocasio-Cortez will turn 35 a few weeks before the 2024 election, which means she will meet the minimum age required to hold the office in the nick of time.
AOC is about as polarizing as it gets as a progressive member of the Democratic Party. She infamously threw her 2020 support behind Sanders before falling in line and helping Biden cross the finish line after Bernie bowed out. Ocasio-Cortez has very quickly become the face of the progressive wing of the party. Given how much success Sanders enjoyed in each of the last two Democratic primaries, it’s pretty easy to see where Ocasio-Cortez’s support will come from if she decides to launch a bid of her own.
If the Biden-Harris message falls on its face, don’t be surprised if Ocasio-Cortez decides that now is the best time for her to make a run for the White House. You can do a lot worse than betting on AOC’s current +3300 odds to grab the nomination.
Given the likelihood that at least one of Biden or Harris will run for president in 2024, we are unlikely to see nearly as many Democratic presidential candidates as we saw in the last election cycle. Over 30 different people entered the race at one point. While a few Dems may step up to try and challenge the incumbents, most of the party will presumably bow out in order to support the current administration in some capacity.
So, we are unlikely to see the likes of Amy Kloubchar, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, or Pete Buttigieg launch their own campaigns next year. Elizabeth Warren is another progressive name to watch, but I doubt she’s overly eager to run again after her 2020 campaign wound up flopping.
Buttigieg (+500) may be the most intriguing candidate if neither Biden or Harris runs again in ‘24, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Who Will Win the 2024 Democratic Nomination?
Anything can happen, but I seriously doubt Biden will wind up seeking another term in office. Being the president is a tough job, and nobody would blame him for calling it quits after just one term. He’s going to be 82! He seems to be in good physical shape for a man of his age, but I’d be surprised if he gave it another go in a couple of years.
The most likely candidate to win the nomination has to be his VP, by default. Harris’ current +160 odds look pretty interesting, especially considering she’ll likely become an odds-on favorite if/when Biden announces that he won’t be running again. I’d expect most of the mainstream members of the Democratic Party to support Harris’ candidacy, assuming the administration is still somewhat popular.
Ocasio-Cortez is the big name to watch, though. While Michelle Obama may be able to waltz her way to the nomination if she suddenly decides to give politics a try, I can’t see it happening just yet. Ocasio-Cortez is going to run for president at some point in the future.
Who’s to say it can’t happen in 2024?
She is quickly becoming one of the most popular Democrats in the country, so she would be smart to strike while the iron is hot.
If you want safety, bet on Kamala Harris’ current +160 odds to win the nomination at a political betting website. If you want a bit more upside, don’t overlook AOC at +3300.
Who Will Win the 2024 Democratic Nomination?
Kamala Harris (+160)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+3300)
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...
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