NFL Divisional Round Prop Bets: Most Passing, Rushing & Receiving Yards
With the NFL’s Divisional Round of the Playoffs about to begin, football betting sites have released some exciting player prop bets to wager on.
Let’s huddle up, examine these prop bets courtesy of BetOnline, and hopefully make some Playoff winning predictions.
Patrick Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason.
His only playoff loss came in the 2018 AFC Championship Game in overtime where he never possessed the ball.
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) January 15, 2021
Most Passing Yards in Divisional Round
- Patrick Mahomes (+180)
- Josh Allen (+375)
- Tom Brady (+375)
- Aaron Rodgers (+400)
- Drew Brees (+700)
- Baker Mayfield (+900)
- Jared Goff (+1200)
- Lamar Jackson (+1600)
Right off the bat, we can eliminate Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff from this prop bet. Both QBs are on run first teams. In fact, we can also eliminate Baker Mayfield as Cleveland will have to go with a run heavy offense to have any shot at beating the Chiefs.
We can also eliminate Drew Brees. The winner of this prop bet is going to throw for over 300 yards and I just don’t see Brees doing that this weekend against the Bucs.
With that said, we still have the following options to examine:
Patrick Mahomes (+180)
Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the league and he also finished as an NFL MVP candidate this season.
Mahomes put up 4,740 yards, 38 TDs and just 6 INTs in 2020. Furthermore, he led the NFL in passing yards per game at 316 yards per game.
The Cleveland Browns were 22nd in the league against the pass this year as they allowed 247.6 yards per game. Yet, in the Wild Card Round against the Steelers, they gave up 501 yards to Ben Roethlisberger. A big reason for this was that Pittsburgh was done big for most of the game.
Yet, the Browns will be going up against another pass prolific offense with the reigning Super Bowl MVP leading the charge.
In his one game against the Browns, Mahomes threw for 375 yards and 3TDs along with 1 INT.
Josh Allen (+375)
Like Mahomes, Josh Allen is also in the NFL MVP conversation as he had an amazing year considering the progress he made in the offseason. Allen finished with 4,544 yards which was 5th in the league. He also 37 TD passes and another 9 TDs on the ground.
In the Wild Card Round, Allen had a stellar game as he put up 324 yards and 2 TDs along with 54 rushing yards and 1 TD.
Unfortunately, Allen is going up against a tough Baltimore defense that finished 6th in the NFL as they allowed only 221 ypg.
Further dimming the lights on Allen as the passing leader this weekend is the fact that he’s averaging just 110 passing yards against Baltimore over two career games.
Tom Brady (+375)
Brady had a strong performance in the Wild Card Round as he beat up on the 2nd ranked pass defense with 381 yards and 2 TDs.
Those numbers continued a strong 2020 campaign for Brady where he ended up 3rd in the league with 4,633 yards. He was also 3rd in the league averaging 289.6 passing yards per game.
The Saints come in as the 5th ranked pass defense only allowing 217 ypg. They shut down the Bears in the Wild Card Round, which really isn’t anything to brag about.
Yet, they’ve also beat up on Brady this year after sweeping the Bucs in 2020. In those two games, Brady only averaged 224 yards, 1 TD, and 2.5 INTs.
It’s hard to imagine Brady having a third bad game against the Saints especially in the Playoffs. With that in mind, I don’t see The Goat being able to compete with Mahomes for the most yards this weekend.
Aaron Rodgers (+400)
Rodgers will almost certainly win the NFL MVP this season. He had an excellent season with 4,299 yards, 48 TDs and just 5 INTs. However, he’s going up against the NFL’s number one defense this weekend.
The Rams led the NFL in PPG (18.5), total yards per game (281.9ypg) and defensing the pass (190.7ypg).
They have one of the best corners in Jalen Ramsey who will battle Packers WR DaVante Adams all game long. Additionally, they have the best defender in the NFL in Aaron Donald and I expect him to wreak havoc.
Who Has the Most Passing Yards this Weekend?
Without any doubt, it will be Patrick Mahomes. He has the best matchup out of all the QBs and is on a pass first offense. At +180 odds, he offers great value.
Most Receiving Yards in Divisional Round
- Davante Adams (+400)
- Stefon Diggs (+500)
- Travis Kelce (+600)
- Tyreek Hill (+600)
- Michael Thomas (+700)
- Mike Evans (+1000)
- Antonio Brown (+1400)
- Chris Godwin (+1600)
- Cole Beasley (+1600)
- Robert Woods (+1600)
- Cooper Kupp (+1800)
- Allen Lazard (+2000)
- Jarvis Landry (+2000)
We can safely eliminate several players on this list due to their matchups and/or being a less targeted option: Allen Lazard, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Cole Beasley, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin. That leaves us with the following options:
Davante Adams (+400)
Adams finished as one of the best receivers in 2020. He tallied 1,374 yards and 18 TDs on 115 receptions. Yet, he will be facing Jalen Ramsey in a battle for four quarters.
Ramsey has had a great deal of success this year as well. Plus, the Rams can double team Adams as well since the Packers don’t have any other dangerous receiving threat.
I would avoid Adams this weekend.
Stefon Diggs (+500)
Diggs has had an incredible season as he led the league in receptions with 127 and yardage with 1,535. He also helped the Buffalo Bills become one of the best teams in the league.
Diggs is Buffalo’s #1 target and he will certainly get plenty of looks. However, it’s going to be tough sledding as the Bills face a strong Ravens secondary. I like Diggs to have more yards than Adams, but I don’t see him surpassing the Chiefs’ top receivers.
Travis Kelce (+600)
Travis Kelce made history this year as a tight end with 1,416 yards and 11 TDs on 105 targets. He will definitely get plenty of looks against the Browns this weekend. But, will it be more than Hill?
Tyreek Hill (+600)
Tyreek Hill is the most explosive receiver in the NFL. He finished the year with 1,276 yards and 10 TDs on 87 receptions. Unfortunately for Hill, the Browns are going to double team him and take away any deep passes. That will limit his chances for a big day.
Michael Thomas (+700)
Michael Thomas missed most of the season with injuries. But, he returned for the Wild Card game and finished with 73 yards on 5 receptions. He could be heavily targeted in the game against the Bucs especially if Tampa stops New Orleans’ running game.
Who Leads the NFL in Receiving Yards for the Divisional Round?
Adams and Diggs are the favorites, but I really like Travis Kelce in this spot. He’s going to get a lot of targets due to Cleveland’s defensive scheme where they allow the underneath stuff.
I can see Kelce having 10 catches for 140 yards and a TD. Although Diggs and Adams have the ability to surpass that mark, they have really tough matchups.
Most first downs/TDs by season (TEs):
🔸 ('20) Travis Kelce – 79
🔸 ('19) Travis Kelce – 66
🔸 ('18) Travis Kelce – 67 pic.twitter.com/QF9hL2nZSV
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 14, 2021
Most Rushing Yards in Divisional Round
- Alvin Kamara (+500)
- Cam Akers (+500)
- Lamar Jackson (+500)
- Nick Chubb (+500)
- Any Bucs Player (+600)
- Aaron Jones (+700)
- K. Dobbins (+700)
- Any Chiefs Player (+750)
- Devin Singletary (+900)
- Kareem Hunt (+1200)
Like the props above, let’s start with the eliminations first. We can safely avoid Kareem Hunt, Devin Singletary, any Kansas City Chiefs running back, J.K. Dobbins, any Bucs running back and Aaron Jones. That leaves us with the following options:
Alvin Kamara (+500)
Kamara is the heart and soul of the Saints offense as he can do it as a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield. However, he has a tough matchup against a Bucs defense that led the league in defending the run as they only allowed 80.6ypg. That’s 10ypg better than the Colts and 11ypg better than the Rams.
In the two games against Tampa this year, Kamara averaged just 28 rushing ypg. We can avoid Kamara this weekend.
Cam Akers (+500)
Rookie running back Cam Akers had a solid Wild Card game against the 5th best run defense as he tallied 131 yards and 1 TD on 28 carries.
I expect the Rams to feed Akers the ball at least 25 times in this weekend’s Playoff game as the Packers are an average rush defense that allows 112.8ypg. There’s value with Akers.
Lamar Jackson (+500)
Lamar Jackson’s athleticism is off the chart. He’s the only QB to rush for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. He had 136 yards in the Wild Card game against the Titans which was very impressive.
However, in his two career games against the Bills, Jackson has rushed for 39.5 ypg. The second game he was a starter and only rushed for 40 yards on 11 attempts in December 2019. I expect the Bills to force Jackson to throw instead of running the ball.
Nick Chubb (+500)
Nick Chubb has been a solid running back this season as he was 7th in rushing yards despite missing four games. He averaged 88.9ypg and will have a juicy matchup this weekend against a Chiefs defense that allows 122.1ypg which was 20th in the NFL.
Nick Chubb is averaging 10 yards per carry in the 4th quarter this season 🤯 pic.twitter.com/tpllokSG1f
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 11, 2021
The Browns are going to have to ride Chubb this weekend to have any shot at winning versus the Chiefs.
Who Has the Most Rushing Yards in the Divisional Round?
This is a tough prop bet, but I am going with Nick Chubb. The Browns need him to succeed. Their offense averages over 160 rushing yards per game when he’s in the lineup.
I think it will be close with Chubb and Akers, but I’m going with Chubb to edge him out.
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