The Best Bets for Week 12 of the 2020 NFL Season
The Underdogs had a strong Week 11 as they went 8-5 ATS and 6-7 SU, which snapped a two week stretch where the Favorites dominated. That brings the season totals to 105-52-1 SU and 71-85-2 ATS for the Favorites.
For the second straight week, the Under came out victorious with a 7-6 record. On the season, the Over still holds a sizable lead with a record of 84-73-1.
Home teams had a second straight week of winning as they went 8-5 SU and 8-5 ATS. This brings the season totals to 83-74-1 SU and 75-81-2 ATS. Without fans in most stadiums, the home teams don’t have much of an advantage.
Let’s huddle up and take a look at the best bets for Week 12 of the 2020 NFL season. Betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
Quick Recap of Week 11’s Best Bets
In Week 11, we had a decent performance going 2-2 with the following NFL wagers:
- Colts Beat Packers
- Atlanta Falcons Surprise the Saints
- Patriots Lead at Halftime Over Texans
- Steelers Up by a TD at Half vs Jaguars
In the two games we won, we did so with style. The Colts came back in the second half to beat the Packers in OT of a very entertaining game. The Steelers scored 17 points in the second quarter to lead the Jaguars 17 to 3 at halftime.
However, with all of that excitement, our two losses in Week 11 were big, fat duds! Atlanta looked inept once again as they lost to the Saints 24 to 9. They were down 10 to 9 at halftime and well within covering the 5 point spread but laid a goose egg in the second half.
The Saints outscored the Falcons 14 to 0 in the second half and ran away with the divisional showdown led by Hill at QB. I want to put an asterisk with this loss because Jameis Winston was believed to be the starter when I made my predictions last week.
The Patriots were the favorites in their Week 11 matchup against the Texans. However, they were jumped on early as Houston got out to a 21 to 10 lead at halftime and held on for the 27 to 20 upset victory. It will be very difficult for the 4-6 Patriots to make the Playoffs this year.
For the season, we’re now at 28-14 heading into Week 12.
Dallas Beats Washington on Thanksgiving
- Cowboys (-145)
It really is crazy how a battle of two 3-7 teams could determine the leader in the NFC East division at the conclusion of Week 12. Yet, that’s what we have here as Washington heads to Dallas Cowboys with the hopes of sweeping the Cowboys this season.
Dallas is favored by a field goal this game, but I feel more comfortable with an outright win rather than the Cowboys covering the spread. I feel crazy for even picking Dallas to win this week considering how bad they have been in 2020, but the stats and trends are leaning towards the Cowboys in Week 12.
First, Washington is just 3-8 SU on Thanksgiving. Second, they are 0-4 SU on the road this season. Those two stats alone have me jumping off Washington this Turkey Day. But, that’s not all.
Dallas is 7-3 SU in the last 10 head to head meetings and 5-0 SU when hosting Washington.
Furthermore, I like Dallas’ chances to have success on the ground this week which will make things much easier for QB Andy Dalton. Washington allows 120.4 rushing ypg. Elliott seems to be heating up at the right time as he surpassed 100 rushing yards last week for the Cowboys.
I see the “Big D” having a lot to celebrate on Thanksgiving as they not only win the game, but get to enjoy home cooked meals as well.
Bills up by a FG at Halftime vs Chargers
- Buffalo -3 in 1st half (-110)
Buffalo’s been a team this season that has gotten out to fast starts. They typically jump out to sizable leads at half time and I see that happening again this week.
For the season, the Buffalo Bills is 4-1 SU in home games and average 29.4ppg at home. Furthermore, they average 16.6ppg in the 1st half at home while allowing their opponents to score just 7ppg in the first half of home games. The Chargers are 1-4 SU on the road and score 14.2ppg in the 1st half of road games.
This game will be high scoring, but I see the Bills getting out to a fast start and going up by a TD or more at halftime. Like other games this season, Buffalo will allow the Chargers to chip away at the lead before sealing the win in the 4th quarter.
Buffalo has averaged 32.7ppg over their last three games and the Chargers have given up 29.3ppg over that same stretch. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in their last six November games. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last five overall games.
Take the explosive Bills offense, that’s coming off a Bye Week, to steamroll the Chargers this week.
Arizona Cardinals Lead at Half vs Patriots
- Cardinals -1 (-110)
Last week, the New England Patriots were favored to beat Houston, but ended up losing 27 to 20 as they were down 21 to 10 at halftime and could not come back to win. This week, I see a similar outcome for the Patriots as Kyler Murray and the Cardinals come to town.
Arizona has one of the best offenses in the NFL and they should find success against a Patriots defense that gave up 400 total yards and 27 points in Week 11 to the one dimensional Houston Texans offense.
The Cardinals are much more balanced as they average 28.7ppg, 422.1 total ypg, 157.7 rushing ypg, and 264.4 passing ypg. The Patriots give up 121.8 rushing ypg, which is where the Cardinals should have a lot of success at this weekend.
Kenyan Drake leads the Cardinals with 641 rushing yards, but Kyler Murray is the most dangerous rusher on the team. He has 619 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs so far, and is on pace to break 1,000 rushing yards and 4,000 passing yards in a single season.
I see Murray extending plays and picking up 1st downs with his legs this weekend along with finding success through the air. He should combine for over 300 total yards and 3 TDs at Foxboro on Sunday.
The Patriots’ bread and butter is running the ball. But, I see the Cardinals stacking the box to make Cam Newton throw it. Arizona has the secondary to play man and they will get after Newton all game long.
Not only do I believe the Cardinals will be leading at half time, but I also see them winning this game outright. New England is 2-5 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
Seattle Wins by a TD Over Philly
- Seahawks -5 (-113)
The Seattle Seahawks and the Eagles will finish off Week 12 on Monday Night Football. In their previous 10 head to head matchups, the Seahawks have gone 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS. Furthermore, they’ve outscored the Eagles on average of 23.6ppg to 14.8ppg.
This season, Seattle has one of the best offenses as they average 31.8ppg. The Eagles average 22ppg. Yet, Philly’s offense looks absolutely dysfunctional. In addition to injuries along the offensive line, this team just can’t seem to figure out how to maintain consistency.
The Eagles have lost two straight games and have only scored 19.75ppg over their last four contests. That won’t cut it against the Seahawks who have scored 29.8ppg in their last five games, which included a 16 point effort two weeks ago.
Not only does Philly not have the offense to hang with Seattle, but they don’t have the defense to stop them either. Yes, Seattle has the worst defense in the league against the pass, but they have turned the corner the last two weeks and are healthy for the first time this season.
I expect the Seahawks to get after Carson Wentz all game long. Furthermore, I expect Wentz to turn the ball over as he already has 14 INTs in 10 games this season.
Seattle is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings against the Eagles, 7-0 ATS in their last seven NFC East games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 November games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight Week 10 through Week 13 games.
Philly is 2-7 ATS in their last nine November games, 1-8 ATS in their last nine Week 10 through Week 13 games, and 7-13 ATS in their last 20 home games.
- The 2021 NFL Conference Championship Game Prop Bets
- The Best Bets for the NFL Conference Championships
- The Best Bets for UFC 257: McGregor vs Poirier 2