Ravens vs Bills AFC Divisional Round Betting Preview, Odds and Pick
On Saturday, January 16th, the AFC Divisional Round gets underway as the Baltimore Ravens head to Western New York to take on the Buffalo Bills.
The Ravens played a solid game of football on both sides of the ball in their Wild Card win against the Tennessee Titans. The Bills came out victorious in a tight Wild Card matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.
In this battle of young QBs who were both selected in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft, will it be Josh Allen and the Bills heading to the AFC Championship game or Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? Kickoff inside Bills Stadium is at 8:15PM ET.
LFW: Ravens vs. Bills is the game "everybody in the world wants to see."
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 12, 2021
Ravens vs Bills Live Odds and Betting History
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
|Baltimore Ravens||+2.5 (+100)||+126||Over 50 (-110)|
|Buffalo Bills||-2.5 (-120)||-146||Under 50 (-110)|
|Betting Data||Baltimore Ravens||Buffalo Bills|
|2020 ATS Home||5-3||6-3|
|2020 ATS Away||6-2-1||5-3|
|2020 O/U Home||4-4||6-3|
|2020 O/U Away||3-6||6-1-1|
Ravens vs Bills AFC Divisional Round Preview
Since the Ravens came into existence in the late 1990s, they have gone 6-3 all-time against the Bills including winning three games in a row, which includes two contests since Allen and Jackson were drafted. The Ravens have won four of the last five including three in a row.
The last time these two teams played was in 1999 and the Ravens beat the Bills on the road. Buffalo does have a 2-1 all-time record at home against Baltimore. If you don’t count when they were the formerly the Browns, these two teams have never played against each other in the Playoffs before.
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5) had a strong performance against the Titans last weekend as they held one of the league’s top scoring teams to just 13 points. They shut down the 2nd best rushing attack in the game and continued their hot streak that closed out the season. Ravens improved their all-time postseason record to 16-10 with the win last weekend. They’re now 8-2 in Wild Card games. However, Baltimore is only 4-6 in the Divisional Round having lost their last two trips to this round of the Playoffs.
- Buffalo Bills (14-3) impressed in their hard fought victory over the Colts last weekend. They held on to win 27 to 24 in what was the best game of the Wild Card Round. Now, they will turn their attention towards a team that has had a lot of success against them in the Sean McDermott-Josh Allen era.
Buffalo’s Wild Card win over the Colts improved their Playoff record to 15-17 and 4-5 in the WC round. They’re 5-6 in the Divisional Round and 4-1 in their last five Divisional Round games.
Head to Head Betting Trends
- Ravens are 6-4 SU in last 10 meetings
- Ravens are 6-4 ATS in last 10 contests
- Under is 7-3 in last 10 matchups
- Ravens are 4-1 SU in last 5 games
Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends
- 6-0 SU in last six games
- 11-5 ATS this season
- 7-4 SU as an Underdog
- 4-0 SU as a road Underdog of 3pts or less
- 6-1 SU in last seven AFC East games
- 13-2 SU in last 15 road games
- 7-0 ATS in last seven games
- 5-0 ATS in last five AFC games
- 4-0 ATS as a road Underdog of 3pts or less
Buffalo Bills Betting Trends
- 6-0 SU in last six home games
- 6-2 SU when spread is +3 to -3pts
- 11-1 SU as a favorite this season
- 11-2 SU in AFC games this season
- 5-1 ATS in their last six AFC games
- 8-1 ATS in last nine games
- 7-1 ATS when spread is +3 to -3pts
- Over is 12-5 in last 17 games
The line opened with the Bills favored by 2.5 points. It fell as low as 1 point in favor of the Bills before climbing back up to 2.5 points with most NFL betting sites. The Over/Under opened at 50.5 points and has come down slightly to an O/U of 50 total points with most online betting sites.
— TheBillsWire (@TheBillsWire) January 11, 2021
Free AFC Playoff Sports Bet and Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-146)
The Ravens and the Bills will meet for the first time in the Playoffs this weekend and it’s certainly going to be a thrilling matchup. Furthermore, there’s a good chance that the contest will be played in the wind and snow.
In addition to the possibility of inclement weather, the following in-game matchups will have a significant impact on the outcome of this Playoff battle:
Can Bills Stop the Ravens Rushing Attack?
On the season, the Ravens led the league in rushing with 194.2ypg. They were also 5th in time of possession due to their dominant rushing attack.
In their Wild Card game, Baltimore tallied 191.9 rushing yards against the Titans. Now, they face a Bills defense who was just gashed for 163 yards on the ground against the Colts.
For the season, the Bills finished 21st against the run as they allowed 122.1 rushing yards per game. The defense did improve over the second half of the regular season, but struggled against the Colts offensive line which is one of the best in the league.
Buffalo will need to hold the Ravens to under 150 rushing yards to have a real shot at winning.
Can the Ravens Contain Josh Allen?
Baltimore is an aggressive defense that loves to blitz. In fact, their defensive coordinator has already come out and declared that they’re not going to change who they are and that they will get after Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen.
One of the things that makes Allen so dangerous is that he can extend plays by scrambling and finding the open receivers. Furthermore, he’s one of the league’s top rushing QBs as well. Allen showed that last week when he rushed for 54 yards and a touchdown.
The flip side to keeping Allen in the pocket is that he’s showed to be one of the best in the league from the pocket. On the season, Allen finished with 4,544 yards (5th), 37 TD passes (5th) and an 81.7 QBR (3rd).
In his Wild Card game against the Colts, Allen went 26 of 35 for 324 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, a 74.3 completion percentage and an 85 QBR. He had a stellar performance and once again showed why he was an MVP candidate this year.
The Ravens give up 217.2 passing ypg which is 7th best in the league. They only gave up 165 passing yards to the Titans last week.
Allen will have to throw for over 250 yards and 2 TDs in order for the Bills to have a real shot at winning.
The X Factor: Lamar Jackson’s Passing Game
The Baltimore Ravens have the league’s lowest passing attack as they averaged only 170.8 passing yards per game. Against the Titans, Jackson threw for 182 yards.
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) January 14, 2021
Buffalo is going to stack the box and make Jackson beat them with his arm. He will need to throw for over 225 yards and at least 1 TD in order to put this offense in a position to win the game.
Betting Trends to Consider
Ravens are 3-3 SU against winning teams this year, 2-2 SU in their last four January games, and 1-2 SU in their last three Playoff games.
The Bills are 5-12 ATS in last 17 January games and 7-6 ATS vs the AFC this season. Yet, they went 11-1 SU as the favorite and 11-2 SU versus the AFC this year.
Both teams are going to have to play their best football in order to win on Saturday. For Baltimore, that means their passing game will have to improve. For Buffalo, that means their run defense will have to improve.
For me, I believe the Bills defense can scheme to slow down Baltimore’s rushing attack. But, I just don’t see Lamar Jackson being able to outduel Josh Allen in a passing game battle.
I’m not a fan of the spread either. I prefer to play it safe and take the Bills’ moneyline instead.
Ravens vs Bills Betting Recap:
- Oddsmaker: BetOnline
- Moneylines: Ravens (+126) vs Bills (-146)
- Spread: Bills -2.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 50 total points (-110)
- Prediction: Bills 27 – Ravens 24
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