2015 Kentucky Derby: Odds and Predictions
The best part of the horse racing season is nearly upong us, as the 2015 Kentucky Derby rolls out in just a few weeks, which could spawn even more excitement for a run at the Triple Crown.
We can’t know just yet if there is a horse with a real shot at making a run at the table, but we also can’t curb the excitement of the mere possibility for the first time since 1978.
Is there a horse that can win all three races in the Triple Crown in 2015? That’s definitely open for debate. What we do know is there are some favorites to take the Kentucky Derby, and we can really only work from that point on.
Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, though. To start to paint the Triple Crown picture, let’s first break down the odds for the Kentucky Derby and see which horse might be the best pick to win the first race:
Dortmund is the slight favorite to win the Kentucky Derby thanks to a hot six-race winning streak, while it’s lineage to near-Triple Crown winner Big Brown makes it a fun horse to side with. Dortmund isn’t just on fire, though. The horse has also been dominant in some of it’s wins. That combo gives Dortmund the edge going into the Kentucky Derby and if it can show that kind of dominance again we could be seeing the early workings of a new Triple Crown champion.
American Pharoah (5/1)
Vegas is giving out odds at +600 that one of the horses will win the Triple Crown this year, and if you’re making that bet you just might want to take a chance on American Paroah. AP is one of the hottest horses right now, claiming four straight victories, including the G1 Arkansas Derby. If American Pharoah can steal the first leg of the Triple Crown, it will be on a major tear and could finally be the horse to end the long TC drought.
Firing Line (13/1)
Firing Line isn’t necessarily a sleeper, but he only finished second being the favorite (Durtmond) at Los Alamitos, so there’s a chance he could surprise. This probably isn’t the horse to run the table, but if it can stay closer to Durtmond during the final stretch it could have a shot at snagging the Kentucky Derby.
Carpe Diem (10/1)
A home town horse, Carper Diem has been fantastic over his last five races – winning four and coming in second in the fifth. Carpe Diem isn’t winning by wide margins, but is a grind it out horse we’ll need to keep an eye on. If Dortmund and the other horses don’t explode out of the gates, Carpe Diem could close the race strong and earn the surprising win at the Kentucky Derby.
Carpe Diem isn’t a strong pick to run the table, but it’s an extremely competitive runner that will have a shot in each race if the other horses don’t perform up to their maximum ability.
Materiality might be one of the sneakiest horses of the lot, as he just won the Florida Derby not too long ago and has actually won all three races he’s run in. The competition hasn’t necessarily been elite each time out, which is a good reason why the odds are against Materiality coming in and trouncing a pack of elite horses. That doesn’t mean he can’t get it done, though. If he does, Materiality could quickly become a fun horse to bet on taking the Triple Crown.
Our Pick: American Pharoah
If you’re looking for a sick sleeper we like the odds and the performance we’ve seen out of Materiality. If you’re looking for a likely winner at the Kentucky Derby that can also actually win the Triple Crown, we really like American Pharoah. AP is just really hot right now and is easily Dortmund’s biggest competition. If American Pharoah can close the gap and overcome Dortmund at the Kentucky Derby like we think he can, it just might have a shot at the whole thing, too.
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