2015 NFL Picks: Odds and Predictions For Week 5
After a mild bump in week three, week four brought us a strong showing in straight up NFL picks, as we went 11-4 and moved our season record up to 39-24.
Against the spread didn’t go nearly as well, as the Lions, Vikings and Jaguars all kept their games a lot closer than expected, with the Rams and Giants pulling off surprising upsets. That had us coming in at just 7-9 against the spread (29-35 on the year).
We’re turning things around in the straight up picks, but will need to buckle down to get the ATS record turned around in week five:
Colts @ Texans (-4)
Andrew Luck is out and Houston is at home, so the natural edge dips slightly to the Texans. After barely getting past the Jags last week, Indy could be in trouble on the road. That being said, I still think this game is tight and the Colts beat the spread.
Pick: Texans 17, Colts 16
Bears @ Chiefs (-9.5)
Jay Cutler is healthy and Alshon Jeffery could be back, but Kansas City’s defense has been better at home so far this year. Arrowhead is a tough place to play in, as well, while Cutler tends to have a more difficult time on the road. I won’t give the Chiefs nearly 10 points, but I’ll give them the win.
Pick: Chiefs 20, Bears 17
Seahawks @ Bengals (-3)
Seattle hasn’t won on the road yet this year but they’ve now won back to back games and have stud safety Kam Chancellor back. Going into Cincy and getting a third straight win won’t be easy, but there’s no denying this is the toughest test Andy Dalton have faced all season. That undefeated run has to end sometime.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Bengals 17
Redskins @ Falcons (-7.5)
Atlanta is appropriately getting a lot of wiggle room here, as they’re at home and just went to town on the Texans. Washington has a strong run defense but their offense leaves a lot to be desired and they can still get beat through the air. Advantage: Falcons.
Pick: Falcons 30, Redskins 17
Jaguars @ Buccaneers (-3)
The Jaguars almost beat the Colts on the road last week and badly need a win this week to remain in the race for the AFC South. It’d be nice to trust in Tampa Bay at home, but Jameis Winston is a walking turnover machine.
Pick: Jaguars 19, Buccaneers 17
Saints @ Eagles (-4.5)
This is a tough one to call, as the Eagles and Saints have both been very competitive, yet both enter week five at just 1-3. Another loss could put either team over the edge, but the Saints narrowly seem like they have it more together thus far.
Pick: Saints 24, Eagles 21
Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)
Josh McCown has actually been decent in his last two starts but the Browns are still atrocious on defense. Enter the Ravens, who saved their season with a win last week and aren’t about to watch it go down the drain in a home loss to Cleveland.
Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 20
Rams @ Packers (-9)
Green Bay gets a pretty big spread here and while they’re great at home, the Rams did just go into Arizona and beat the Cardinals. St. Louis is good enough on defense to keep this close, while a beastly performance out of Todd Gurley could even get the Rams the upset. With an insane money line this week, the Rams are a fun upset try. Regardless, I still like Green Bay at home, but not by nine points.
Pick: Packers 24, Rams 17
(-2.5) Bills @ Titans
Rex Ryan has to have his defense kicked into high gear this week after getting slapped around at home by the Giants. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota might have a tough one here, allowing Buffalo to get the win and easily cover the spread.
Pick: Bills 30, Titans 13
(-2.5) Cardinals @ Lions
Detroit is 0-4 and seems like a mess, but they’ve sadly been in every game and probably should have won last week. They’re at home and desperate, but Arizona is just too good. I do like the Lions to keep it close, but they won’t beat the spread.
Pick: Cardinals 20, Lions 17
(-9) Patriots @ Cowboys
This spread isn’t crazy at all, as Dallas has been falling apart on defense and Brandon Weeden doesn’t instill much confidence for an ailing offense. Tom Brady and co. had the week off to decide which way they want to roast the Cowboys. Greg Hardy’s return could provide some early drama, but none that lasts.
Pick: Patriots 38, Cowboys 20
(-5) Broncos @ Raiders
Derek Carr has the Raiders looking like a legit threat to Denver this year, but that narrative will only go as far as the Raider stake it in week five. They’ve got the Broncos at home and if they’re going to make a move, it has to be this week. I just don’t see it happening, as this matchup has “Peyton Manning carving session” written all over it.
Pick: Broncos 34, Raiders 24
49ers @ Giants (-7)
Colin Kaepernick and the Niners offense is officially on life support, as he’s gotten so bad that people are actually entertaining the thought of benching him for Blaine Gabbert. Yikes. That, coupled with how well the G-Men have played lately, has me thinking the Giants win easily at home.
Pick: Giants 33, 49ers 17
Steelers @ Chargers (-3)
Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and Antonio Brown are as dangerous as it gets, but Michael Vick leading this offense is less than ideal. The Steelers are also on the road against a better than advertised Bolts pass defense, while Philip Rivers and co. get Antonio Gates back, as well. I like San Diego in a tight shootout.
Pick: Chargers 27, Steelers 23
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