2016 MLB Betting: 4 Underdogs to Consider on Tuesday Night
Tuesday offers up two very interesting things in MLB betting: a massive 15-game slate and a slew of underdogs worth betting on. Of course, no one wants to stroll into a slate throwing out upset bets left and right without great odds and/or a good shot at the underdog coming through, so we tend to break things down and pick the four best upset specials you’ll want to consider.
That’s precisely the case tonight, as injuries or matchup have us thinking four teams in particular could be interesting upset picks. Let’s take a look at the odds and matchup for all four and see if they’re worth the risk:
Padres Over Red Sox
Paul Clemens toes the rubber for the Padres (+150), who get a mild advantage at Petco park, where pitchers tend to fare well. Obviously Clemens is not a stellar talent and a matchup – home or not – against an explosive offense like the Red Sox (-165) can set anyone up for absolute disaster.
The problem, though, is Boston has not been very scary lately. The Red sox have scored just one run in two straight losses, dropping very winnable games to bad Athletics and Padres teams. Even worse, they’ve had ample opportunity to turn their fortunes around in those games, but left an astonishing 15 runners on base that were in scoring position.
That is brutal, and even though this matchup screams Red Sox all the way, they just have not been themselves lately. It also doesn’t help that the volatile Clay Buchholz will be taking the mound for them.
Tragically, San Diego doesn’t even yield an amazing payout based on their +150 odds. They’re still worth a look given how badly the Red Sox have played lately, however.
Brewers Over Cubs
Milwaukee (+162) and Chicago (-177) hate each other and tonight we get game number two of their recent series. The Cubs stole game one yesterday, but on Tuesday night they’ll try to go up 2-0 without stars Kris Bryant or Addison Russell in the starting lineup.
That gives a very explosive Chicago offense slightly less bite and may play into Milwaukee’s hands. The Brewers are obviously not a powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination, but they do tend to play pretty well at home (36-37 on the year) compared to anywhere else.
Milwaukee’s bats probably still need to come out to steal a win here, but Jason Hammel is not unbeatable. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Hammel specifically has issues on the road. He’s been fine against the Brew Crew to this point, but there is a chance this could be a bad spot for him.
We’d like better odds to take the Brewers here, but they’re at home, the Cubs are a little under-manned and it’s a hated rival. If there’s a time to pick the Brewers for a big upset, it’s tonight.
Astros Over Indians
This is a very interesting game between two solid playoff contenders. Cleveland (-220) continues to build on first place in the AL Central, while the Astros (+190) are still fighting for the AL West lead.
It’s anyone’s guess what happens before the season is up, but this is understandably a big game for both sides. Houston rides a two-game winning streak coming into tonight, while Cleveland just dropped their last game. That doesn’t give anyone an advantage, especially with the Tribe putting elite pitcher Corey Kluber in front of the catcher.
Kluber can be a dominant strikeout pitcher, but he also can be smacked around a bit. His last meeting with the Astros is perfect evidence of that, as Houston lit him up for five hits and five earned runs. Kluber kept the ball inside the park last time versus the Astros, but that may be the troubling part, as Houston could have made it a lot worse with all of their long ball power.
Consider what big favorites the Indians are, this is one of the top spots to consider chasing an underdog tonight. Kluber should take care of business against a team that strikes out a ton, but Houston is stacked with talent and power.
Braves Over Nationals
Atlanta (+205) is one of the worst teams in the league, but anytime you get killer odds in a situation where it’s even remotely logical for an upset to go down, we need to consider biting.
The Nats (-235) have been one of the best teams in all of baseball in 2016, but it is very hard to ignore the fact that Gio Gonzalez may be due for a bad outing and the lowly Braves come in on fire after winning 7 of their last 10 games.
Atlanta’s offense and pitching are both usually trash, but the Braves are cooking a bit lately, with 4+ runs in four of their last five outings (four of which are wins). Gio is not facing a murderer’s row here and he’s also fared well against Atlanta (as well as at home), but he’s a volatile pitcher who may be due for regression after three straight strong outings.
That enough isn’t enough to jump on the Braves with full force, but the odds are playable and Atlanta has oddly excelled on the road (32-40) compared to at home. There is obviously serious risk here, but the payoff is strong if the Braves can stage the upset tonight.
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